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Reigning world champions Germany take on Northern Ireland and Ukraine face Poland in the final games of Group C in Euro 2016. Let’s take a look at the match-ups.
How does the table look?
Germany and Poland sit one and two respectively in Group C on four points each, only separated on goal difference. Northern Ireland sit outright third with three points and a plus-one goal difference while Ukraine are bottom with zero points and minus-four difference.
Who can still qualify?
All nations can still mathematically qualify, with one of Germany or Poland guaranteed a place in the knockout stages results pending.
Who’s favourite to qualify?
Poland and world champions Germany are favourites to proceed as one point from each of their final games would ensure qualification.
How can the others qualify?
The only way that Poland won’t automatically qualify is if they lose to Ukraine and Northern Ireland beat Germany, likewise the only way Germany will miss out on automatic qualification is if they lose to Northern Ireland and Poland win or draw with Ukraine.
This makes it hard for Northern Ireland to gain automatic qualification but it is still possible if they beat Germany. The most likely option for Northern Ireland to go through to the knockouts is by taking a point off Germany and hoping that four points is enough to qualify as one of the highest finishing third-placed teams.
The only way Ukraine can possibly qualify is if Germany beat Northern Ireland and they then beat Poland by what will likely need to be at least five goals.
Germany versus Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland came into their first European Championship as a team expected to make up numbers in a difficult group. To their credit they have fought hard, going down 1-0 to Arkadiusz Milik and Poland in their opening match before bouncing back to defeat a much fancied Ukrainian side 2-0 for their first Euro finals win.
The reigning world champions will be far stiffer opposition, however.
Opening their account with a 2-0 win over Ukraine, Germany failed to find the back of the net against a stubborn Polish side and will be looking to return to form against Northern Ireland. Germany are in a pole position to go through but they will prefer to be the top placed team so expect a near enough to full strength team line-up.
Northern Ireland have been resilient and may provide tough opposition, but getting a draw, let alone a win, looks a task too great. Damage limitation along the lines of Czech Republic’s encounter with Spain appear the best option for the Northern Irishmen who will need to rely on their strong goal difference to see them through.
The only question surrounding the result is Germany by how many, with 3-0 being a likely score line.
Ukraine versus Poland
A battle of the 2012 Euro co-hosts, Poland head into the clash as strong favourites, partly due to their strong showing, and partly due to Ukraine’s poor performances.
A combination of political turmoil in Ukraine and a team rift dating back to an on-field incident between two rival teams has dogged their campaign. They have an embarrassing negative goal difference and are facing the prospect of not picking up a single point.
A strong show against Germany provided hope that Ukraine could pull together and be a threat but against a lowly rated Northern Irish team they disappointed, shipping two goals and offering no real resistance.
Poland and Robert Lewandowski have failed to produce dazzling performances but they’ve done all they’ve needed to, overcoming a gritty Northern Ireland 1-0, then somewhat stunning the world champs, holding them to a scoreless draw.
With qualification almost guaranteed, a win and probably a big win is what Poland will need to go through in top place, but against a dark horse looking to prove their worth, they would happily split the points.
With an upset brewing in a high-scoring affair, Ukraine could throw a spanner in Poland’s works with a 3-2 win.
Final verdict
Germany will breeze through the group with seven points out of a possible nine. Faltering in their final match Poland and their four points will still proceed through in second.
Northern Ireland will be sweating on keeping their scoreline respectable against Germany if they want to have any hope of their three points seeing them though as a top placed third team.
Barring some form of footballing miracle Ukraine will finish the tournament with a win on the board but still in last place.
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