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Tattersall's Club Tiara 2016: Preview and selections

Tattersall's Club Tiara (Photo: Tattersall's club)
Roar Guru
23rd June, 2016
11

Race 8 at Eagle Farm on Saturday (3.17pm AEST) is the Tattersalls Club Tiara run at a distance o 1400m.

This excellent Fillies and Mares race first staged in 1999 and used to be known as the Winter Stakes. It begun as a listed race, before being promoted to a Group 3 event, then onto a Group 2, before finally blossoming into it’s Group 1 status in 2007. Since then it has largely been dominated by three year old fillies who have won five of the last nine editions. Below are the last Nine winners of the race (followed by age, gender and barrier draw) since it’s status changed in 2007.

2015 SRIKANDI (Doomben) 4m (15)
2014 COSMIC ENDEAVOUR 3f (5)
2013 RED TRACER 5m (16)
2012 PEAR TART 3f (14)
2011 YOSEI 3f (1)
2010 MELITO 3f (12)
2009 RUSSETING 5m (6)
2008 ABSOLUT GLAM 3f (5)
2007 NOVA STAR 4m (7)

Significant historical factors;

– The Dane Ripper Stakes (5) and the Stradbroke (5) have produced ten of the past 13 winners
– The last four winners have won at their prior start.
-Inside barriers can’t really be factored into the equation given five of the past thirteen winners have drawn eleven or worse to win, and the new Eagle Farm track is likely to favour those wider drawn, given what happened on Stradbroke day.
-Three year olds have a good record winning five of the last nine editions, and no mare over five years of age has won the race in the past 13 years.
– Seven of the last Nine winners have been in the first seven placegetters turning for home
– Eight of last Nine winners had at least five runs in their current preparation leading in.
– Six of the past Nine winners had raced in a Group 1 event during their career prior to running in this.
– Those that did win coming out of the Stradbroke Handicap did finish first to seventh in that race. Four finished 1-5. And they were all aged three or four.
– Four of last Nine winners started at $12 to $21. Average (nine year) winning price $9.52.
– The last Thirteen winners either raced at 1400m (11) or 1600m (2) last start.

Looking at these statistics the likes of Azkadellia (forgiving last run) and perhaps Artistry look the ones to beat. Both are four year old mares coming out of the most common lead up races at 1400m. Both have drawn a little wide which is expected to be advantageous on the day. Cradle Me is seven-year-old mare, but apart from that factor she looks a tremendous chance off a last start win, and Danish Twist comes off a win in an unorthodox lead up race, but is four years of age and has a super record at 1400m.

Weather and Track Condition:
At the time of writing the track was rated a Soft 7 and the weather on Thursday was unlikely to dry the track out very much. Possible showers forecast for Friday and a sunny day on Saturday. Temperatures have dropped and it’s going to get colder so the track won’t be getting too much drier.

My prediction would be a Soft 6 on Saturday at best and going on what happened on Stradbroke day two weeks ago one would expect the track surface to deteriorate by the time this race is run, with the inside portion not the ideal place to be.

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We probably need to be looking for those horses that can handle Slow rated tracks, and those that have drawn wider barriers that can get to the outside of the track in the straight. Having said that the old Eagle Farm track did tend to favour on pacers when the track got wet, and those that sit nearer the pace in this race do generally win it.

Race Tempo:
There really is no noted leader in the race but it’s likely either Echo Gal or Miss Cover Girl will take that spot, and Press Report has led once or twice in her career. All three are a little suspect beyond 1300m so setting a very fast pace would seem a suicidal move for any of that trio. Onemorezeta might have to go forward from an outside barrier and Jessy Belle should be close to the pace. It’s hard to predict a fast tempo will ensue, with my best guess being a moderately run race which might not suit the get back runners.

Runner analysis and assessed price:
I’m not going to review all of the runners but will give an opinion on those that appear to be the better chances.

1. AZKADELLIA – Is the logical favourite and deserves to be if she is at her best. If this was a handicap race she would be conceding about 2kg to the next best credentialled runner. She finished a mile back in the Stradbroke last start, but got stuck on the vastly inferior ground in the straight nearer the rail. That has probably cost her six to eight lengths, possibly more, and it was heartening to see her winning a couple of mini battles in the last 100m against horses that seemed to be in superior ground just on the outside of her.

She is the one they all have to beat, but she is no value, and to take anything under $3 means you are assuming she is still at her top after a long preparation, where she has had to peak a couple of times already. Historically she is the one, and the track condition and surface look ideal for her. $3.30

2. DANISH TWIST – She is a four-year-old mare in career best form that has only ever run one bad race. That was on debut, and apart from that she has never been more than one length behind the winner which is truly remarkable. Her record beyond 1300m reads 7-4/12 and she is 5-1/7 from barriers 1-3.

Drawing barrier one appears suitable at face value and it affords Hugh Bowman the chance to position up close to the pace, as she did in both her recent wins over 1300m and 1400m. She isn’t well weighted against some of these mares, but she handles wet tracks and is a half sister to Happy Trails who is a three time Group 1 winner. No reason why she can’t win her first one in this race, providing she gets to the better part of the track in the straight. $5.50

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3. PRECIOUS GEM – This six-year-old mare has also been in career best form this preparation. She was nearly three lengths in front of Azkadellia last start in the Stradbroke with a 2kg weight advantage (level weights here), though she was in the right part of the track in the straight.

Apparently she had missed some trackwork leading into that race though so her run was meritorious from barrier 18 where she had to go back to last early in the race. Note also her trainer Henry Dwyer is flying all the way back from Europe to make sure she is at her peak for this race. It’s hard to knock her and her formlines from Adelaide this preparation, and the Stradbroke run suggest she might be on a par with Azkadellia class wise. My only concern is the wet surface. She has raced OKon slow and Heavy tracks earlier in her career, but she hasn’t been on one for quite some time.

I can’t see that as being a positive for her, but she is the second best weighted horse in the race. $6.50

4. CRADLE ME – Brings up a Trifecta of ‘in career best form mares’ at the age of seven, when most of her gender would be thinking of motherhood. She has always had considerable ability, and seems to have added another string to her bow of late winning from up neearer the pace. She ran 1.24.10 last start when winning the Dane Ripper Stakes while Precious Gem only managed to run 1.24.95 in the Stradbroke and Azkadellia was of course behind Precious Gem in that race and ran even slower time.

I’m not too sure what to read into that given how the track deteriorated later in the day, but it’s a fact, and an interesting one especially considering she did finish nearer to the rail than the vast majority of winners did on the day. She carried 3kg more than Azkadellia, and 5kg more than Precious Gem too which adds further merit to that time.

She handles wet tracks, has drawn a preferred outside barrier, and she can be up somewhere near the pace if required. The distance is no problem given her win in the Dane Ripper. Ideally she would have at least 2kg less than Azkadellia but her form around Music Magnate (from Scone) suggests she isn’t too inferior (if at all) to that mare at the moment. She is a definite winning chance at a generous price. $4.50

6. JESSY BELLE – She looks a place hope on wet ground given her current status and form last Spring in Melbourne, which isn’t much inferior to Azkadellia. She also comes out of the Dane Ripper race where her time was also superior to that mare, and Precious Gem. $20

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7. SULTRY FEELING – I’m not sure she is up to winning this and her stamina at 1400m is questionable. But it’s pertinent to note her record when fresh which reads 4/6 with more than 30 days between runs, and she has never won off less than a 20 day break. It’s been 49 days between starts for her coming into this. Importantly she does handle wet tracks, and has drawn out in barrier 14 which should be no disadvantage. She might drift to a better than $30 price, and is probably worth an Each Way bet at that price. $16

11. ARTISTRY- Ran a nice second in the Dane Ripper behind Cradle Me and has a significant gear change of Winkers On. Apparently the stable has been keen to apply them for some time and she does actually wear them in trackwork. She is supposedly a little field shy so the improvement in her could be immense come Saturday. She was only 1.8 lengths from Danish Twist at Scone two starts ago when conceding that mare 3.5kg (when caught four to five wide throughout), so she could beat that mare home in this. My concern for her is a wet track, because she seems to struggle on that type of surface, as evidenced by a six length beaten margin behind Azkadellia in the Queen Of The Turf stakes at Randwick. If the track was drier I’d probably have her as top selection, and It’s a little odd because her half brother Countryman does go quite well, even on a heavy surface. She has drawn out wide which should be advantageous in finding the better going later in the day though, so perhaps all is not lost. She is a little bit of value at her current quote of $15. I’d rate her a better chance than that but much shorter if the track happened to dry out (unlikely). $10

15. BLUEBERRY HILL – is the first of two three year olds in the race and she can’t be ignored on her wet track record alone. She is 3/3 on Slow and Heavy surfaces and only 1/8 on dry tracks. She is back in form after a win last week in the Gai Waterhouse Classic and although that race is not generally a good guide the 2005 winner Charmview did win this race after placing in that event. She is an unknown quantity backing up off a seven day break, but if she has no problems with that she could surprise . She would appear to lack the class to win, but she did beat Counterattack twice as a two year old. He wasn’t far behind Precious Gem in the Stradbroke. Interestingly she has never been to Eagle Farm, as would be the case with quite a few of the local three year olds. Her get back style should suit this track, and barrier eight looks beneficial, but her running out a strong 1400m in this class is questionable. She represents overs at a $26 early quote. $16

16. MY POPPETTE – The second of the three year olds has been deliberately set for this race, and could surprise despite a below par run in the Dane Ripper. Nothing much went right for her there, and she does have a win on a wet track which is some comfort. Not sure where she is going to get to from the outside barrier, and just don’t know whether she is quite up to the class. But she is the right age. $20

Conclusion and bet suggestion:
This is going to be another great race and it’s difficult to separate quite a few of these Fillies/Mares. My top four

1. Cradle Me – She has had the ideal preparation for the race and I like the fact she comes in with plenty of confidence, and on times and form she could possibly beat the favourite Azkadellia. I think there is enough value in her $8.50 price to find out.

2. Danish Twist – She never runs a bad race, and is the right age and in the right type of form to win. A lot is going to depend on how she is ridden, and whether or not she is in the right part of the track at the right time.

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3. Azkadellia – Has probably find the right race and the planets have aligned for her in regard to track condition and barrier draw. It’s just a matter of what price you want to take, and whether she is still going as well now as she was back in April.

4. Artistry – I’d be keen to back her if the track was dry and I might still do that anyway. My suspicions are that she doesn’t handle wet tracks, but who knows what the gear change might provide. It might take her mind off conditions underfoot and increase her focus on getting to the winning post first.

There are many other hopes in the race, not the least of which is Precious Gem.

Both Cradle Me and Artistry appear to be the best value of the four mentioned so I’ll be keen to back both. The former to win, and the latter each way at current prices. Quite a few of the above analysed horses are at good value prices and should be considered in all Multiple bets (Trifectas, First Fours, Quadrellas etc).

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