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A logical and statistical analysis of the North vs South debate

1st July, 2016
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Roar Guru
1st July, 2016
81
1895 Reads

In the wake of Spiro Zavos‘ latest article asking the question of whether the gap between the northern or southern hemisphere rugby is closing — and some questioning in the comments section whether there ever really was one — I have decided to take a deep statistical look at the history between the Six Nations teams and the original three SANZAR powerhouses.

I believe that it will clarify a few misconceptions, but also add a little logical thinking regarding the here and now.

The first thing that must need clarification is that both South Africa and Australia have, historically, never needed New Zealand to claim dominance over their northern foes.

As I read the comments of Spiro’s article, I came across many a Roarer suggesting that if you take New Zealand out of the equation, both South Africa and Australia’s overall dominance over their Six Nations counterparts would not be substantial.

This, unfortunately, is simply not the truth.

While it is true that New Zealand make the numbers far more pretty than it would have been without them, Australia and South Africa have done fine on their own – both of them carry a 70 or higher percentage in the head-to-head rates against northern opposition.

In fact, the readings against Six Nations opposition goes like this.

Australia: 70 per cent

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South Africa: 77 per cent

New Zealand: 89 per cent

The combined standing between these three nations comes up at a 76 per cent win ratio against Six Nations opposition. Without New Zealand, South Africa and Australia command a 74 per cent win ratio between them against Six Nations opposition. So, from a statistical point of view, it is inaccurate to claim that South Africa and Australia need New Zealand to claim historical dominance over the north.

But this does not mean that everything is rosy for the men in gold and green and green and gold. In fact, both of these rugby nations have had some degree of trouble with certain teams in their history.

The most interesting statistic is that France and England seem to be the top achievers against South Africa, Australia and New Zealand.

France have a 21 per cent win ratio against New Zealand. No other northern hemisphere rugby nation including England (20%) can boast this feat against the All Blacks. They also hold a 39 per cent win ratio against Australia and a 28 per cent against South Africa, but England succeed them with 45 per cent against Australia and 32 per cent against South Africa.

England, often considered the superpower of the northern hemisphere, holds a 20 per cent win ratio against the men in black while they hold a 32 per cent win ratio against South Africa.

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The northern dark horse of recent times, Ireland, have picked up their performances against the big three of the southern hemisphere, and yet their total winning percentage against New Zealand stands at 0 per cent while they hold a 31 per cent against Australia and a 24 per cent against South Africa.

Wales may present the most disappointing displays against southern hemisphere opposition considering their proud rugby culture. Their 26 per cent against Australia stands their best in over a century. They have only beaten New Zealand three times in the last hundred years (9%) and only two wins against South Africa (6%) in 32 attempts.

Another country that has seen some degree of success against the big three from down south, Scotland, have never been able to beat New Zealand while they hold 31 per cent against Australia and 19 per cent against South Africa.

Italy have never beaten any of those teams.

In more recent times, two rugby nations stand out against South Africa and Australia: Ireland against South Africa and England against Australia. Another interesting thing is that if you reverse these two teams, their record don’t make for good reading.

By virtue of their recent series win against Australia, England head the last ten games between the two nations by seven wins to three while Ireland and South Africa are at a five win equal split in the last ten games.

The reversal of these two match-ups sees Australia leading Ireland with seven wins to three in the last ten games and South Africa dominate England by winning nine games and drawing once. South Africa have not lost against England since 2006.

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These statistics shows us that the southern hemisphere giants – New Zealand or no New Zealand – do have polished records against Six Nations opposition, but here is where we must also think logically.

The northerners have just completed one of the most dominant visits down south in their entire history and have been threatening to do so for some time now, regardless of the in-house struggles that may be facing Saru and the ARU. The bottom line remains that the northern hemisphere has indeed upped the ante in recent years.

The question of whether the gap truly is closing can only be answered in a year or two from now. One exceptional June Tour does not make for parity, but should the northern teams keep this kind of effectiveness against southern teams in the next year or two, then we can consider reevaluating the current balance of power.

What also needs to be made clear is that teams like England, Ireland and France are perfectly capable of beating either South Africa or Australia on their day. Gone are the days when them beating either of those two teams can be seen as a shock.

It is of my view that Ireland deserved to win the recent series while no one can point the finger at England saying that they did not deserve their day in the golden sun.

It would be wise for the Springboks and the Wallabies and their supporters to take the north seriously. While it may take decades for the north to obtain historical parity with these two nations, nothing stops them from working their way up from here. They have the platform to do so and England are already getting dangerously close to surpassing Australia in the historical head-to-head encounters.

New Zealand seem to be the only ones who are safe at the moment. With 76 per cent against France being their worst record to anyone up north and the rest sitting at 80 per cent and beyond, it’s hard to see them being knocked off the pedestal anytime soon.

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It is a shame that we will not see England taking on New Zealand this year, though I am fairly confident that New Zealand would have come out on top. This year’s English team thoroughly deserve to be viewed as the second best team in the world, but they did not show enough for me to view them as realistic challengers for the New Zealand.

The one thing that we can all agree on is that it is damn exciting to see the battle for second spot in the world rankings as being exciting. We have now had four teams gracing the second spot in the last three years.

As for the north versus south debate – let’s see how it goes in the next two years.

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