With Super Rugby two weeks from completion, the top ten spots on the 2016 table are far from cemented.
A lot has been said, debated, complained and raged about regarding the 2016 Super Rugby conference format, but one aspect that cannot be denied is the sheer spectator value going into the last six rounds.
No one knew what would happen. Nothing to date has made it any clearer for anyone.
Beautifully crafted chaos, wrapped in an enigma, dipped in velvet chocolate laced with hopes and dreams.
A season unending.
The Bulls ended Round 15 with a gifted opportunity to the Sharks for the African wildcard slot, and bar a slip on a banana peel from the Durban men, they’re out of the running.
The Sharks had played 13 games and sit at 35 points; all the Bulls had to do was secure a victory over the Jaguares in Argentina, since they were on 32 points with a game in hand.
A straight-out victory would have put them in eighth spot above the Waratahs, who would lose out on the Australasian wildcard spots below the Crusaders, Hurricanes and Highlanders.
With two games to play, both the Bulls and Sharks have the Cheetahs and Sunpups to conquer.
It is no longer a case of the prized finals spot being the Bulls’ to win. It’s now the Sharks’ to lose.
Bar the Lions at number one, who have only the Kings and Jaguares left to play, numbers two through eight are fair game.
The current top ten standings are as follows:
1. Lions: 47*
2. Chiefs: 46*
3. Stormers: 41*
4. ACT Brumbies: 39*
5. Crusaders: 45
6. Hurricanes: 44
7. Highlanders: 43
8. Sharks: 35
9. NSW Waratahs: 39
10. Bulls: 32
* denotes conference leader
The table gives a very vivid image of just how closely-contested this competition is going into the final two rounds, starting with the New Zealand Conference.
At number two, the Chiefs overcame a brutal Crusaders’ onslaught with brilliant defence and better situational awareness and decision-making in the clutch.
The precision boot of Damien McKenzie ripped a bonus point away from the Crusaders on the full-time hooter, in the process allowing the Lions to take top honours after their win over the Sharks.
Round 16 now looms as a possible bonus-point round for the Chiefs, who face off against the Reds in Brisbane, and could finish on a possible 51 points. If the Crusaders crush the Rebels in Christchurch they would wind up on 50 points.
The Highlanders are playing tourist in Buenos Aires against the Jaguares, and could finish this round on 48 points.
Hoping to add to their log lead are the Lions against the Kings at Ellis Park, and they could see this round out on 52 points.
A potential Stormers’ shellacking of the Force in Perth will see them land on 46 points, and the Sharks could that African wildcard slot against the Cheetahs in the Shark Tank, looking at a possible 40 points.
It all adds to the flavour of these enthralling end games.
As for the Hurricanes, they are facing a conundrum of sorts. They face a Waratahs’ side that, given the table right now, won’t make the cut.
Travelling to Sydney for this game, given the win/loss ratio of the Waratahs, could either be a blessing or a curse.
Both the Waratahs and Brumbies are on 39 points, with only games won deciding who makes the finals.
If that wasn’t enough, they will square off against the Crusaders in Christchurch come Round 17.
A loss to the Waratahs with a bonus point would land them on 45 points, and given the Round 16 bonus point round, the Highlanders may be on 48 points facing the Chiefs on a possible 51 points in Round 17 in Dunedin.
Should the Hurricanes lose both matches with a bonus point they will be on 46 points with a big problem.
Both Waratahs and Brumbies won’t be competing just for the Australian Conference spot, but also the third Australasian wildcard spot.
The Brumbies only have one cosy game left, in Round 17 against the Force in Canberra, but both they and the Waratahs have to face those marauding Blues, who would like nothing more than to obliterate that apple cart.
To put it in perspective, if the Waratahs beat the Hurricanes it’s game on. That would then make the Hurricanes versus Crusaders match, similarly, game on. Both the Brumbies and Waratahs’ matches against the Blues are also absolutely crucial, and if it all goes like it could we could be saying bye bye to the Canes.
But if the Canes beat the Tahs, it’s bye bye Waratahs.
And if either the Brumbies or Waratahs stumble against the Blues, it’s bye bye to that team.
It’s complicated, but it’s coming together.
All in all, the final two rounds of the 2016 Super Rugby competition are shaping up to be the best two rounds of the unending season.
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