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It says the contenders but let’s be blunt.
*spoiler alert*
West Coast are not going to win the flag.
Last year the Eagles played some great football. They secured two home finals and duly smashed their opponents in both games. Like the Cats of 1995 they rampaged into the grand final only to turn in their worst performance of the season in the most important game.
West Coast fans I know were incandescent with rage subsequent to this inexplicable performance, but they weren’t the first side to wilt on the big day and unfortunately they won’t be the last.
At the end of the 2011 season I predicted that within the next two or three season West Coast would feature in a grand final. I was a bit off, but the obvious sides were there – a solid defence, a talented and diligent midfield, and the makings of an exquisite attack.
The fundamentals are all in place. Nick Naitanui provides a steady supply to a strong midfield (note – his injury isn’t ideal, but it isn’t the key problem either). Gaff, Shuey, Masten, Hurn and of course Matt Priddis generate huge amounts of drive; Gaff with over 400 possessions this season and Priddis and Shuey not far behind.
As a neutral observer I am envious of the talent in the West Coast forward line. This season Josh Kennedy has kicked 53 goals from 15 games has been ably supported by Jack Darling with 32, Mark LeCras with 26, and Jamie Cripps with 20.
LeCras hasn’t quite recaptured his old brilliance but remains a dangerous forward. Darling is a bit of a mystery but he runs hot often enough – and with enough intensity – to be a real contributor to the team.
Kennedy is top shelf. He had the yips in a couple of games this year – 3.6 against Collingwood and 1.4 against Freo – but for the most part he makes the most of the ample opportunities his strong aerial skills afford him. He kicked at 50% against North on Sunday, but if he gets back on target he will rack up a huge tally by the season’s end.
The question is – will he and his colleagues get the supply they need in the finals?
At home, the Eagles perform on the field as their team on papers suggests it should. They have handed out some fearful hidings.
I know the journey to Melbourne is almost 3000km, but when West Coast arrive they play like they’ve spent three weeks on a clipper surviving on rum and biscuits.
You would think that since 1987 the club would have figured this one out. Certainly they have previously, so well may fans ask what the hell is going on this year.
It is not the case of West Coast playing well away from home but failing to capitalise on opportunities.
The Eagles average 56.5 inside 50s per game at home, an average slightly skewed down by their horrendous performance against Adelaide at Subiaco in round 12. Remove that outlier, and West Coast go forward just under 60 times a match at home. Their talented forwards have little trouble making hay when the sun shines.
Away, West Coast go forward 50.5 times a game. But they’ve only played away from Subiaco six times and that includes a romp against the hapless Lions at the Gabba. Setting that aside, the Eagles average 48.4 inside 50s per game.
There’s a good chance the Eagles will be playing against good sides in the finals, and there’s a good chance the Eagles will have to play in Melbourne. They’ve struggled with both those propositions this year – especially in tandem.
They will likely end up 14-8… Which will rule out a top two finish and the home finals that brings. I could be wildly off the mark. It is, after all, that sort of season, but something would have to change radically for the Eagles to bring home the bacon in 2016.
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