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Why NSW will win State of Origin Game 3

13th July, 2016
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Tyson Frizell deserves his spot in Origin. (AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
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13th July, 2016
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Sorry New South Wales fans, I’m going to jinx the side for a third time this year and say that they’re dead certs to win Origin 3 at ANZ Stadium tonight.

The Blues are surely looking back on this series as a massive ‘what if’?

What if Josh Morris had managed that extra millimetre in Game 1 and had his try allowed? What if Josh Reynolds’ boot had been true and he had tied the scores at 6-6?

And in Game 2, what if Michael Jennings hadn’t got his hand to that ball in the Queensland goal, and Tyson Frizell had scored a second try? Or what if the Dragons’ backrower had a centimetre more pace and had tackled Dane Gagai into touch rather than seen the Maroons winger cross for his first of three tries?

Of course those ‘what if’ moments are just that, and the reality is Queensland have wrapped the series up, after triumphing 6-4 in Game 1 and 26-16 in Game 2.

So here we are again, the Blues playing for ‘pride’ in a dead-rubber match.

More Origin
» Laurie Daley’s survival guide: How many points can he lose by?
» Why Queensland will win Game 3
» Final NSW Blues and Queensland Maroons line-ups
» Expert tips and predictions

However, as they love to tell us, there’s no such thing as a dead-rubber in Origin. And, in fact, of the four series which have been wrapped up by full time in Game 2 since 2006, the series-losing side have emerged victorious in Game 3 thrice.

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In 2007 and ’09 the Blues came back to win the final match of the series, having already lost, while Queensland did the same when NSW won their only series of the past ten years, in 2014.

Despite being a champion team, the likes of which we will never see again, the only whitewash that the Maroons have managed during their record-busting run was in 2010.

I’d say something about how Game 3 is actually treated as Game 1 of the following series, but ten series losses from 11 tells us that’s not the case.

However this idea that Queenslanders never lie down, never admit defeat, never *insert a teary-eyed Phil Gould-ism here*, is a bit overdone.

The reality is that this champion team tend to do what they need to do to win. And at this point, they’ve won. A whitewash would be nice, and the chance to send Corey Parker out as a winner would be great.

But regardless of the outcome tonight, Cameron Smith is going to be presented with the shield. And you can’t say that doesn’t lessen their motivation at least a little bit.

For the Blues however, this is their future.

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If they lose tonight, you would have to put question marks over the Origin futures of around half the team, and the final year of coach Laurie Daley’s contract would likely be worth less than the paper it’s written on.

So the players will be doing it for Laurie. They’ll also be doing it for retiring captain Paul Gallen. But more importantly, Blake Ferguson, Michael Jennings, Josh Mansour, Robbie Farah, Josh Jackson, James Tamou, Andrew Fifita and Matt Moylan are doing it for themselves. Win, or likely don’t get picked next year.

And while we’ll talk about passion and the desire to wear the jersey being the ultimate motivation, the $30,000 match fee – for a total of 90 grand over the course of the 2017 series – would have to be a pretty decent carrot to get the win tonight.

Motivation and history aside, the Blues also have the personnel on board to finish the 2016 series on a high.

Perhaps I should have added another ‘what if’ to those above: what if James Tedesco had been there from Game 1?

The Tigers fullback is having an amazing season, one that’s set to net him a seven-figure per year contract, and had he not been injured just prior to the first match of the season, well… But no, enough torturing ourselves with hypotheticals.

Jack Bird had a decent first outing for NSW in Game 2, and seeing him in the halves and getting his hands on the ball more often can only be a good thing.

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Then there’s Andrew Fifita’s promise to square up with the Maroons players who were giving him lip after fulltime for Game 2, telling Fairfax Media, “I go back to Game 2 and the looks on their faces and we were getting [verbally] sprayed, a few of us were getting sprayed, I have just put it in the memory bank for Game 3.

“The looks on their faces and a few of the guys just staring down the barrel. I don’t want to do into too much detail but it is the memory bank and I can’t wait until Wednesday night.”

Ominous words from Fifita (and one of the rare interviews I’ve read from him where he didn’t say “This is who I am” – seriously, he repeats it that often, you worry he’s just reassuring himself, “Yes, I am Andrew Fifita, aren’t I?”).

Ultimately I can see the Maroons coming into this game slightly undercooked, and this desperate NSW side will ambush them.

It won’t be Blues blow-out, but it won’t be a Maroonwash either. NSW will do enough to earn the win, send Paul Gallen out on top, and keep a handful of representative careers alive.

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