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What price ten Rio swimming gold medals?

Australia's Emily Seebohm is chasing backstroke gold in the Rio Olympics. (AFP, Fabrice Coffrini)
Roar Guru
14th July, 2016
5

No one should bet their house against Australia winning ten swimming gold medals in Rio next month – more sensible predictions range from three to seven. But it only takes several favourites to peak, and the odd dark horse to glow incandescent under the Olympic blowtorch, and we’re up in double digits.

Specifically, this feat requires a quartet of doubles from sprinters Campbells and Cam, and backstrokers Seebohm and Larkin for us to snare the first eight golds.

» VIEW THE OLYMPIC MEDAL TALLY HERE

Add the supposed ‘lock’ of the women’s 4X100 freestyle relay, a plausible Mack Horton 400m freestyle gold, and a very possible 200m ‘fly to Madeline Groves, and that’s the “deca”.

But wait, there’s more. A maybe-maybe 1500m gold to Horton would take it to 11, and neither is it out of the question for rapidly ascendant teen Georgia Bohl to challenge for the 100m breaststroke.

Then if Bohl “only” gets close, how could we not be mild favourites for the medley relay? A maverick men’s 4x100m freestyle gold to deny France, anyone? Emma McKeon to shrug off the jinx of family pedigree to topple Ledecky for the 200m free? (to make it 14 golds.)

These are not predictions, of course. They are just dizzy ducks that could line up in a row of lucky days.

But then, neither would I tempt homelessness by betting my house to a brick against us winning zero gold medals. That’s right, zero. Stranger things have happened in sport. Remember New Zealand being seven up in the last America’s Cup? What were the odds they’d lose? Remember Sally Robbins in Athens? Our solitary bronze medal in Montreal? Lousy London?

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And hasn’t Cam McEvoy been publicly complaining that his “feel for the water” has inconveniently deserted him of late? Didn’t Mack Horton roll his Land Rover recently?

While few who’ve actually competed in elite sport are ever surprised by crazy outcomes, commentators will continue to use cliches like choke, bottle and kahunas to denigrate or eulogise heroes raised and fallen.

And beyond this glib pathos is a creeping sense that all high profile sport has become a little circus-like. That’s circus, as in jugglers, freaks, strong men, dangerous animal acts, and the trapeze. As in ancient Rome’s bread and circuses for the masses. As in paying your money and leaving the big top dazzled and impressed, but not inspired.

That’s inspired, as in “maybe my children would love to do that.” Or “I”ll never stop wondering how she overcame the odds.”

And maybe modern sport simply is a curious new circus, not least because there may be more millionaires in the Rio Olympic Village than in any other village on earth.

We will likely be impressed, we might gasp, cheer, boo, but how often will we be inspired by Rio feats? We will also wonder whose endorsement value has gone through the roof and who’s doping. And then we might ask how many of those dopers are doing it surreptitiously, or via approved doctors’ prescriptions for ailments which should otherwise have them incapable of walking unassisted to their letterbox.

But back to our magnificent swimming team. They are of course, inevitably caught up in this new juggernaut of professional careerism. And why wouldn’t they be? Rivers of public funding over the past few decades have enabled them to pursue their dreams well past the typical teen use-by dates of past aspirants.

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Most of our medal chances are in fact businessmen and women, all self-employed and marketing a product which has withstood the world’s most rigorous quality controls – their own bodies.

They also have managers to remind them what that product is worth. Most will insist they still compete for the thrill of being the best, but they have investments, drive a late model car, and have an idea of how many houses Olympic gold can buy.

Therefore, we no longer have to wonder exactly what inspires them to be so different, because the difference is no longer so great – they have a set of skills and a job like rest of us. Except that perhaps their job performance is tested a little more rigorously.

But what makes our Rio swimmers so impressive is that, collectively, they seem one of the most cheerful, clever, and humble circus acts to be leaving our shores for some time. That’s inspiring.

So good luck to them on the high wire of public expectations, come Rio.

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