Only 315 days to go! Irresponsibly early Origin predictions

Making predictions without the benefit of form, injury and players’ scheduled court appearances is fraught with foolishness, but let’s give it a crack anyway. After all, there are only around 315 sleeps until Origin 1 2017!

NSW will field yet another new halves combination
After a decade of fine tuning, the Blues have losing down to an art form, comfortably locking up defeat after only two games in 2016.

The blame for a large chunk of those losses has been heaped on the well-illustrated shoulders of Mitchell Peace, fair or otherwise.

This year, NSW fans didn’t have the luxury of blaming Pearce for their team’s ineptitude.

The people demanded change, and against his better judgement, Laurie finally agreed. Adams Reynolds was handed his Blue debut, and James Maloney was retrieved from the top paddock. These men were tasked with doing what Pearce et al. could not: manufacture points.

Reynolds produced two tentative outings before succumbing to injury. He played with the nervous caution of a cat burglar in clogs, and may well join the likes of Jamie Soward, Jarrod Mullen and Terry Campese at the one and done table at future alumni functions.

Maloney fared much better, however the veteran half turned 30 during the series, and is unlikely to feature in forward planning discussions. Matt Moylan was streaky and mistake-prone deputising for Reynolds in Game 3, and clearly needs more time in the halves for Penrith before being considered a long-term halves solution at Origin level.

So where does that leave us? Pearce is probably the best halfback eligible to play for NSW, as much as it pains me to admit it.

But going back to Pearce just doesn’t feel right. Almost like taking back a serial cheater who keeps insisting they’ve changed.

Blake Austin and Aidan Sezer? Perhaps, but their form and consistency will need to improve. Brooks and Moses? Queensland sure hope so. And sadly that’s about it. A lot can happen between now and Game 1 2017, but based on recent Origin history, the chances of Reynolds and Maloney resuming their partnership appear slim.

Fifita will take an Origin sabbatical
Andrew Fifita’s talent is undeniable. His rare combination of size, speed, skill and power make him a genuine game-changer. But he is also certifiable rageaholic.

His tendency to give away cheap penalties and ignite with the ease of a gas stovetop makes him a coach’s nightmare. Laurie Daley knew this when he picked the Sharks firebrand, but such was the lack of weapons at Daley’s disposal, he was left with little choice.

Fifita was said to be on his best behaviour of late, largely avoiding the on-field madness and off-field criminality which has chequered his recent past.

However when he busted out the old reverse RKO on Gavin Cooper and copped ten minutes in the sin bin, Daley’s worst fears were confirmed. How can a coach trust a player who frequently roams off-piste?

While Fifita’s intentions were honourable, his decision-making was straight out of a Parramatta board meeting.

And to make matters worse, he showed a total lack of remorse, indicating he would do it all again if given the chance. Such a bewildering lack of self-awareness is exactly why he will not be given that chance. At least until the Blues start struggling again.

Walters will falter in blooding new talent
The Queenslanders talk of their enviable pipeline like they’re German pharmaceutical giant. With all that Maroon talent banging down the door, it’s a wonder they bother with hinges north of the border.

After serving a behavioural ban, Cameron Munster, Valentine Holmes, Dylan Napa, Anthony Milford and Ben Hunt will all be available for selection in 2017, adding to coach Kevin Walters’ already formidable Pokédex.

And while each of these outstanding young players would likely crack the NSW line-up, I can’t see how Kevy will squeeze them into the current Queensland side.

Walters believes in loyalty and continuity. Incumbent players are rewarded with ongoing selection, and are largely given the opportunity to finish on their own terms. The retirement of Corey Parker opens one spot, and Nate Myles may call time upon further reflection, but that’s about it. And factoring in the returns from injury of Billy Slater, Will Chambers and Michael Morgan, the Queensland backline has very few vacancies.

A likely scenario will see Justin O’Neil making way for Will Chambers, Dane Gagai missing out on selection with the return of Billy Slater, Darius Boyd shifted back to the wing, and Michael Morgan reprising his utility role on the bench. Walters’ failure to blood this next generation of Queensland superstars will likely be criticised for its perceived lack of foresight.

The Daily Telegraph will recycle the same Dad’s Army piece they’ve trotted out for the last few years. But only a fool would tinker with a formula which has reaped ten series victories over the last 11 years.

Winter is coming, finally
The annual launch of the State of Origin series is a mostly pointless affair. By the time the event rolls around, the Eastern seaboard is already suffering from the nauseating effects of Origin fever. However, 2017 promises to deliver a particularly virulent strain.

In a rugby league special event to rival the LeBron James “decision”, Queensland’s king quartet of Smith, Thurston, Cronk and Slater will sensationally announce their retirement from State of Origin football at the conclusion of the series. And while such joyous news will cause the skies above Sydney to darken under a thick cloud of Bollinger corks, things will get worse before they get better.

If you thought the constant flow of tributes, video montages and congratulatory sound bites for Corey Parker’s farewell was over the top, wait until these four start their series-long lap of honour. In order to accommodate the requisite gushing career obituaries, the ever obsequious Channel Nine will force viewers to pop a couple of No-Doz just to make it through to kick-off.

Unfortunately for the Queensland fans, all good things must come to an end. As Immortal as their awesome foursome may seem and as much as Johnathan Thurston resembles a villain from Highlander, they cannot play on forever.

After a decade of basking in the warming glow of Origin glory, I predict the boys will pull stumps. And as any anatomy student worth his scalpel will tell you, the removal of one’s spine is bad for one’s health. Let us pray this logic applies to Cane toads.

Someone squares up Cameron Smith
Cameron Smith is the biggest grub in rugby league, yet his sledges and niggling tactics seem to carry the polite civility of European golfing applause.

Tackle after tackle I watched as the Australian, Queensland and Melbourne Storm captain twisted arms, pummelled faces and whispered sweet nothings without punishment or retribution.

NSW captain Paul Gallen opted to take the low road and turned his back on Smith’s well-rehearsed victory speech after Game 3, but this simply made him look like a petulant child with a mouthful of sour grapes.

As Thurston helped Smith down from his high horse, the Queenslanders vented their fury at the Blues lack of respect, their resolve to eviscerate NSW next year strengthening by the second.

Thanks Gal. But Smith’s modus operandi shouldn’t shock the NSW players, especially Gallen. An avid student at the Richie McCaw academy, Smith has the remarkable ability to operate in a referee’s blind spot, where he has hidden in plain sight for the majority of his career.

The Blues have complained to the match officials about it, whinged to the media about it, and sobbed to their spouses about it. It clearly hasn’t worked.

Now I won’t pretend to know the answer for making Smith more accountable for his actions, but desperate times call for morally questionable measures. The Blues need to parachute in an old fashioned ringer.

A true 1980s throwback thug with the task of teaching that smug Queenslander a true lesson in disrespect. I saw Manly legend Ian Roberts on television the other day, and that bloke could still frighten monsters.

Without the shackles of suspension, Roberts could run wild, unleashing his full arsenal of outlawed manoeuvres.

It won’t change the result, but Cam Smith will find next year’s victory speech much more of a challenge with a mouthful of loose teeth.

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