How the final round of the 2016 AFL season should unfold

With six complete rounds of the AFL season left, teams are either gearing up for the finals, fighting to stay in finals contention, or planning for next season.

Round 23 this season will feature several matches involving teams still in finals contention as of the end of Round 17, with only Essendon and Carlton, who meet at the MCG, all but certain not to feature in September this year.

Taking that into account, it’s very likely that match will be played on the Sunday, with the Seven Network to televise it. We’ll get to that shortly, but first let’s take a look at how the ladder shapes with only six rounds remaining.

With only three losses for the season and with a percentage of 119.5 per cent, Hawthorn currently tops the ladder, with the Adelaide Crows, Western Bulldogs and GWS Giants rounding out the top four.

The Giants’ 79-point thrashing of the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba last Sunday night saw then edge ahead of cross-town rivals the Sydney Swans on percentage, and that could be crucial to their chances of securing the coveted double chance.

The Swans are out of the top four for the first time this season, dropping to fifth after their heartbreaking loss to Hawthorn last Thursday night. The West Coast Eagles, Geelong Cats and North Melbourne, round out the eight.

The Roos had the chance to create a four-game buffer between themselves and ninth-placed Port Adelaide with a victory last Saturday night, but their disappointing 28-point loss has seen the Power reduce that gap to just two games.

It means the Power and St Kilda, whose victory over Melbourne on Sunday lifted it to tenth place on the ladder, sit equal ninth on the ladder. Both face top-four hopefuls the GWS Giants and Western Bulldogs respectively this weekend.

Should the Power and Saints win their matches on the weekend, and North Melbourne lose to Collingwood this Friday night, the gap between eighth and ninth could be reduced to just one game.

This would make the Round 19 match between the Roos and Saints all the more intriguing, as the Saints will have the chance to draw level with the Roos on ten wins (assuming it beats the Western Bulldogs this Saturday night), but would still be behind Brad Scott’s men on percentage.

The Power will also have the chance to join them on ten wins, but must defeat both the GWS Giants (at the Adelaide Oval) and Brisbane Lions (at the Gabba) in their next two matches to do so.

Melbourne and Collingwood have fallen further off the pace, and it’s fair to say that they, along with Richmond and every other team below them on the ladder, are virtually out of finals contention.

There are two matches this weekend, both involving the bottom four teams (Gold Coast versus Fremantle and Essendon versus Brisbane), that will shape the order of the early part of the AFL draft in November, and, in the case of the latter match, the wooden spoon.

Let’s now get to how Round 23 should unfold.

For the first time, a football-free weekend will be held in between the final round of the regular season and the first week of the finals series. It has since been announced that the annual E J Whitten Legends match, and a women’s match between the Western Bulldogs and Melbourne, will be played in this slot.

Still, when the fixture was released last October, the final round was left as a floating fixture, as has been the case since 2010, though this time it gives the AFL flexibility as to how Round 23 should be played out.

There has been talk that the match between the Adelaide Crows and West Coast Eagles could be considered for the Monday night timeslot, so I’ve placed that as it is.

It was also suggested that the North Melbourne versus GWS Giants match at Etihad Stadium could be played on the Friday night, which would give the latter team its first exposure in the AFL’s premium timeslot since they entered the league in 2012.

However, the Roos have since been mired in a form slump that has seen them drop from being undefeated after Round 9 to eighth with a 10-6 record, with its only victory since May 21 a 70-point thrashing of Richmond in Hobart in Round 11.

Therefore, I have placed that match in the early Saturday afternoon timeslot, with the blockbuster between Hawthorn and Collingwood to be played on the Friday night, given it would appeal more on a commercial basis despite the certainty that the Pies will miss the finals for a third straight season.

The early finish to the Roos versus Giants match would allow Leon Cameron’s men to be back in Sydney by early evening to prepare for what will be their first ever finals campaign.

Both matches will be televised by the Seven Network.

The Western Bulldogs will contest finals for the second consecutive year but have the task of having to face Fremantle in Perth; that match has been scheduled for 1:10pm AWST on the Saturday.

As is the case with the Giants, the early finish to that match will allow the Bulldogs to be on a plane straight after the match, and back in Melbourne by midnight.

The twilight match will see the Gold Coast Suns take on Port Adelaide at Metricon Stadium, and as is the case with the Dogs and Giants, the early evening finish would allow the Power to be back home by midnight, even if by this point they are eliminated from finals contention.

Saturday night would see the Geelong Cats and Melbourne face off at Simonds Stadium, and the Sydney Swans square off with Richmond at the SCG, with the latter match to be seen on the Seven Network nationally.

This leaves us with three matches; two of which feature teams unlikely to make the finals and the other, between finals-bound teams the Adelaide Crows and West Coast Eagles, being considered strongly by the AFL for the Monday night timeslot.

St Kilda and the Brisbane Lions would square off at Etihad Stadium in the early timeslot on the Sunday, with the other match, between Essendon and Carlton, to be played in the 3:20pm timeslot and televised by the Seven Network.

As was the case last year, there will be no twilight match on the Sunday to conclude the regular season.

This would leave the Crows and Eagles to face off on the Monday night.

Thus, this is how Round 23 should pan out (all local times)
Friday night
Hawthorn versus Collingwood, MCG, 7:50pm*

Saturday
North Melbourne versus GWS Giants, Etihad Stadium, 1:45pm*
Fremantle versus Western Bulldogs, Domain Stadium, 1:10pm
Gold Coast Suns versus Port Adelaide, Metricon Stadium, 4:35pm
Sydney Swans versus Richmond, SCG, 7:25pm*
Geelong Cats versus Melbourne, Simonds Stadium, 7:25pm

Sunday
St Kilda versus Brisbane Lions, Etihad Stadium, 1:10pm
Essendon versus Carlton, MCG, 3:20pm*

Monday night
Adelaide Crows versus West Coast Eagles, Adelaide Oval, 7:20pm

* denotes a Channel Seven match