It has been well documented over the years that it is extremely difficult for a team to win the premiership if they do not finish inside the top four.
The stats back it up; Adelaide is the only team to have done it, back in 1998.
But with the log-jam in the top eight in 2016 that has seen North Melbourne plummet from first to eighth, and Geelong move from premiership favourites to struggling for a top six finish, 2016 is highly competitive across the board.
As the top four stands, Hawthorn, Adelaide, Western Bulldogs and GWS are all in prime position. But wins to Geelong, Sydney and West Coast could mean that three of the top four teams change, while Adelaide could realistically rise to first place or drop to seventh.
With the constant fluctuations occurring, one can only conclude that there is not a significant difference between first and seventh or eighth, and any team can beat another on any given day.
So what are the chances of a team outside the top four winning the flag?
Naturally, it is a very tough task as they would have to win four consecutive games, being the away team in the majority of them. Winning from outside the top six is even tougher, as they would not play a home game for the entire finals series.
Everyone knows the issues West Coast have playing away from Perth, especially at the MCG. No team could expect an easy match against them, but the Eagles are unlikely to manage to make the big one.
GWS, in my opinion, are too young and inexperienced this season to genuinely contend. That said, they score at will and again, no team will relish playing them.
Geelong, currently seventh, are the best team in the competition when they are playing their best football. If they can secure a top six finish, they are as likely to win the premiership as anyone.
North Melbourne have shown that, on their day, if healthy, they are among the elite, but are too old and slow in my opinion to challenge, especially if they have to travel interstate.
Adelaide and the Bulldogs are both extremely tough to beat on their home grounds, although the Bulldogs probably would not play at Etihad. Hawthorn and Sydney are the models of consistency that all AFL teams crave to emulate, and can beat any team on any given night, regardless of where they are playing.
A team outside the top four can very realistically expect to win the flag, and be disappointed if they fail to do so. While it is one of the toughest tasks in sport in Australia, if any year it is to happen, I believe 2016 is that year.
Justin Ahrns
Roar Pro
Disagree, St Kilda's percentage is too poor to make the finals even if they defeat North, but it is still possible if North capitulate.
Justin Ahrns
Roar Pro
Yeah I should have included that it was under a different finals system.
No Norf
Guest
This should have been looked at with StKilda not NthMelb.. they are cooked and wont win another game this year.
Milo
Roar Rookie
No chance. Only team that could win from outside the top four is Hawthorn and as they will finish top it just aint happening. Btw Adelaide winning from outside the 'top 4' is a bit of a furphy. They finished 5th but played 4th (and lost) in the first final when the rules were that 1 V 8 and 2 V 7 etc with the lowest two losers eliminated. They therefore had a second chance which today's fifth place teams don't have.
Justin Ahrns
Roar Pro
I disagree. Look at round 1 for example.. Geelong completely outplayed Hawthorn on the back of the performance from Dangerfield! Bye certainly will have an impact, as teams who will need to come from outside the top 4 will have a chance to rest.
Justin Ahrns
Roar Pro
Not so sure about that.. we tend to see that in the finals any team can beat another, especially with the equality across the league this season! Will be interesting to see how it pans out though!!
Justin Ahrns
Roar Pro
For sure!! Gives a huge advantage to the older teams like North Melbourne, Hawthorn and Sydney!
Liam
Guest
See, you say that, and you have made a reasonably compelling case as to why it could be true, but you have failed to account for the much stronger home ground advantage that we've seen this year. The teams in the top 4 will make the semis, and the teams in the top 2 will make the grand final, purely based on home ground advantage. The only exception is Hawthorn, who have a proven ability to win away; indeed, the only side in the competition who has done so. And, as much as I would like to see Hawthorn watching the grand final from their loungerooms, I wouldn't be betting against them should they make the grand final against West Coast, Adelaide, or Sydney, and even Geelong and the Western Bulldogs isn't a fifty-fifty likelyhood either. If Hawthorn make top 4, then I can't see them losing.
me too
Guest
Agree with most of it, but geelong at their best are not as good as the hawks and possibly the swans at their best. Still think given the evenness of the comp that the advantage of top four will be the deciding difference. and that the premier will likely be hawthorn, with either the swans or crows - whichever club occupies the other top two - also a big chance. And agree with Tumble's point about the bye - may have an effect with winners of the qualifying finals essentially playing one game in four weeks leading into the prelims.
Justin Ahrns
Roar Pro
Agree with you. As a crows fan they have been so good to watch. I dont think we will win the flag simply because teams get on top of our midfield easily, and our disposal is questionable at times.
Justin Ahrns
Roar Pro
Exactly, usually one of the main reasons that a team from the top 4 wins the flag is that they are significantly better than a team from 5-8. And maybe over the next few weeks we may see a gap start to form, but I doubt it. I give Geelong the best chance (should they not make the top 4)
Justin Ahrns
Roar Pro
yeah you are completely right. I believe in this system winning from outside the top 4 is the hardest gig in sports, but with the equality across the top 8 this season, if it's every going to happen surely this is the year.
Attacking footy
Guest
Crows are my smoky. They play entertaining footy and I am not a Crows fan
Tumbleton
Guest
If it's ever going to happen, this is the year. The end of season bye takes a lot of the advantages out of a top four finish. -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
mattyb
Guest
Good article there Justin,I to believe a team will eventually win the GF from outside the top four,I also believe that all or any record can be broken. It will be interesting how the bye before the finals effects all this. Could make winning from sixth a little easier. Most seasons see the top four clearly superior from the rest and generally seventh and eighth are just making up the numbers,this year that doesn't seem to be the case. A team winning from outside the top four this year is certainly a possibility and adds more excitement to this fascinating season.
justinr
Guest
It's also worth noting that the Crows won in 1998 under a different finals system, wherein they were hammered in the first week by the Demons but stayed in the comp due to other results. Winning a flag under this system is extremely hard, but it will happen I think once or twice in the next decade.