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Super Rugby tipping semi finals: Digger’s gamble

The Lions are deservedly the best South African side. Can they go all the way? (AP Photo/Andrew Taylor)
Expert
27th July, 2016
98
4198 Reads

Maybe it was the pressure. Maybe it was allowing himself a sneaky little look ahead in which he saw both a Hurricanes and a tipping panel title. Maybe it was arrogance?

Whatever it was, just as Digger ascended to top spot on the tally, he went and tipped the Crusaders in Johannesburg, shelling his lead as The Crowd jagged another perfect round.

» Check out the complete 2017 Super Rugby draw right here

But I have a sneaking suspicion Digger’s going all in this week to regain his lead…

Digger hits off first again, and I’ve thrown up another Big Question this week.

Last week: The Crowd 4, Digger 3, and well, you know, the rest of us…

Diggercane: “The Lions and Highlanders is an absolute pickle of a blocked drain to pick, at least for me anyhow.

“There is an air of destiny around the Lions, however I also feel there is an air of inevitability around the Highlanders. Make of that what you will however it makes sense to me. In the end I am tipping the Highlanders. Make no mistake however, this is a very good Lions side and are deserved favourites for this match.

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“My reasons for tipping the clan are as follows –

1. I am biased. This is important.
2. I think The Crowd will tip the Lions, and I want to win. This is also important.
3. I believe the Highlanders have a better kicking game. Important in general, probably more so at altitude.
4. Highlanders had two full days’ recovery before heading to SA. Important again.
5. Twice during the season the Lions have been dismantled by two sides with similar defensive patterns, the Highlanders and Hurricanes. Once away and once at home. Of course the Lions are good enough to counter this but I have yet to see it. The hard running Lions may be easily isolated and will have less space this weekend while the Highlanders certainly have the points in them. I feel this is important.
6. The scrum is a worry though but I have decided this is unimportant, probably foolishly.
7. The Lions lineout had a few wobbles against the Crusaders and I think the Highlanders can take advantage of this. Gut feel important.
8. If the going gets tough, I am not convinced Jantjies is the man to guide them home. Fairly important.
9. I don’t care if I get egg on my face which is important also as this is a very good Lions side.
10. I just wanted to finish on a whole number as I believe this important.

“I admit, the Chiefs make me nervous. The talk of travel is valid, but I feel that with this group it is more galvanising and the challenge is welcomed. Both sides know each other pretty well and after reportings and press shenanigans following the last encounter I would expect to see some sting in this match.

“At the time of writing, it is unclear whether Dane Coles and Sam Cane will be available for their respective sides and perhaps this could be crucial, but the ‘Canes for me (yes, yes, surprise, surprise) based on their current form in defence.

“If anyone can unlock it, the Chiefs certainly can but the Hurricanes are currently playing with more cohesion in this area, and the Chiefs have let in a few in recent weeks including the Stormers who still managed three against the Chiefs. Determination on defence is crucial in the tight matches and I think the Canes have this mentality over the Chiefs currently.”

Tips: Hurricanes, Highlanders.

Harry Jones: “The Chiefs had four or five flights and a bus to the Cake Tin from Cape Town. Can they find space in John Plumtree’s stingy defence? The Hurricanes are singing ‘Black and yellow’s how we roll!’ This might confuse the black and yellow and red Chiefs. They already play a very complex game. Aaron Cruden said they rolled the Stormers with a simple plan, but I disagree.

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“The Chiefs only win turnovers in the exact area of the pitch they wish to launch from, and they are very good with hands in the ruck. They also rely heavily on speculative chips, which they chase from various angles. The Chiefs identify space where none exists, even in Nicholas Bishop’s careful pictures and graphs.

“An attack plan for them is Cruden (kick) to J-Lowe (back-tap) to Tamanivalu (catch-offload) to McKenzie (catch-kick-catch-run-kick) to Cruden to McKenzie (backflip) and score a mystical try.

“The ‘Canes are worried about fleet-footed Dane Coles’ spare ribs which got a little barbecue sauce applied by the Sharks. Come the moment, come the man. Rikki-Tikki-Tavi is 21-years old, and apparently he was a Taranaki cricketer, so he probably has good hands.

“’Baz’ Bok-Beating Bastard Barrett is worth 20 points by his own self, so the Canes will probably win if they can stop the Chiefs from launching their raids. How do you cut down the space? What’s the best way to short-circuit the Chiefs’ continuity game? I feel Chris Boyd and Plumtree have the right mix of secret sauce and on goes the yellow and black (not red) train.

“The Lions will use traditional South African rugby virtues to beat the kick-dependent defending champion Otago Highlanders. It’s simply not true that South African teams kick more than New Zealand teams. I am tired of proving that point, so let me just give you three numbers: 124, 1670, and 24. The Lions have kicked 124 times less than the Highlanders so far, run 1670 more metres, and scored 24 more tries.

“But this is not ‘playing like Kiwis.’ The Lions actually play like Saffas of old: rock hard Rohan Janse van Rensburg is evoking memories of Danie Gerber; Jaco Kriel is a new Jan Ellis in how ‘woes’ (pronounce this roughly like ‘voos’ except with a short and angry vowel sound like the ‘u’ in ‘put’) he plays chaotic-ferocious-damn-rough-wild-abnormally-mad; Ruan Combrinck is (hat trick man against the All Blacks) Ray Mordt reincarnated; Faf de Klerk is a classic combative Saffa attack-back–a shorter, blonder, stockier Joost van der Westhuizen type; Malcolm Marx is Bismarck du Plessis with wheels; the Angry Warthog is even more ‘woes’ than Kriel; and Warren Whiteley is a Morne du Plessis clone. If you don’t agree with these exact analogies, I have twenty more.

“The ‘Landers have been forced into making 595 more tackles than the Lions with their high-kick style, and this -together with the travel from Canberra to the High Veldt – should result in another famous Lions win, as they come from the depths of losing a promotion fight to the Southern Kings all the way to the finals of Super Rugby.”

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Tips: Hurricanes, Lions.

Paddy Effeney: “Finally, I’m getting around to watching a lot more of the action. Only took me every single round to get there…

To the tips… which you are advised not to follow. I’m going with home teams. The Chiefs have been too up and down for me to ever think about getting around them.

The ‘Canes, on the other hand, are finishing faster than the red cordial at a school camp. I’ll go with them.

I like the Lions, and if they can get over the Crusaders in Johannesburg, I see no reason why they can’t do the same to a team that almost lost to the Brumbies.”

Tips: Hurricanes, Lions.

Brett McKay: This might just be the hardest weekend of tipping for the season. All four sides in the semis deserve to be there, and all four sides in the semis have a genuine shot at winning through to the Final.

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The Chiefs were excellent in Cape Town, better than I suspect anyone including themselves thought they could be at Newlands on the night. But coming back to New Zealand and repeating that in Wellington against a similarly rampant Hurricanes side is going to be one step too high, I think.

The ‘Canes have hit a real vein at the moment, and I just can’t see them tripping up this week.

And I love the Highlanders. Love the Highlanders. I’ve said this a fair bit of late, and I absolutely stand by it. I’ve loved watching them for several seasons now, and I’d love for them to go back to back. And I think they’ve got a really great opportunity to do it.

So I’m tipping the Highlanders… next week. If they can beat the Lions at Ellis Park this week, then knocking off the ‘Canes in Wellington – or the Chiefs in ‘Dunners’, for that matter – will be easy.

Because the Lions are probably the team I’ve loved watching the most in 2016, and they were so good straight out of the blocks last weekend that the cuppa I started making at kick-off remained unmade at halftime. They were superb. I could rave about players today, but I did that on Tuesday, and to do it again I’d just start sounding like a fan boy.

I can’t wait to watch this game; I really can’t. And an 11pm kick-off AEST, too! Practically convenient!

Tips: Hurricanes, Lions (but with no real disappointment if the Highlanders win).

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The Big Question: (from Brett) What were your biggest highlights and biggest disappointments of the 2016 Super Rugby season?

Diggercane: “Biggest personal highlights are many. Obviously the form of the Hurricanes, to earn top spot considering the personnel lost and the start to the season is a tremendous result while the ‘coming of age’ of Beauden Barrett and Ardie Savea’s form has been great to watch.

“The New Zealand conference overall has been tremendous. Ben Smith’s consistency is remarkable; the excitement that Nemani Nadolo, Damian Mackenzie and James Lowe brings; the reinvigoration of Stephen Luatua and the late season form of Melani Nanai are but snippets. The Highlanders’ home crowds have been outstanding and I would never have thought I would find a new use for the chorus of a White Stripes song (‘Waaaaaaaiiiiiiiiiiiii Sake Na Hooooooooooooooooooooooo Loooooooooooooooooo’).

“I have been inspired to try and come up with something for Beauden Barrett. I have thus far been unsuccessful.

“One highlight I have to mention is the Lions. Their journey to becoming serious title contenders is quite remarkable. Only a few seasons ago, essentially the very same squad were looked upon fondly as a team of battlers but ultimately outclassed.

“No longer. The entire squad and coaching staff deserve all the plaudits they receive. Their play has been inspirational at times and an absolute pleasure to watch. With a similar story behind the Highlanders as well, perhaps an example of where patience around results, coaches and squads can pay off and certainly an indication of how depth can be built, as opposed to complaining that it is ‘non-existent’ (Perhaps a subtle swipe there at the whinging around the lack of depth in Australia. Maybe, dunno, you decide, heehee…)

“Biggest personal disappointments? I struggled here frankly. I suppose a few teams, namely the Brumbies, Stormers and Jaguares have been overall disappointing considering their respective rosters but in all honesty I have enjoyed this year’s competition immensely so no, nothing really.

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“And anyway, whinging is for wankers, as my better half likes to tell me which I guess makes me a hypocrite, but that’s ok.

“Anyhow, go you mighty Hurricanes!!!”

Harry: “Biggest disappointment of Super Rugby 2016? Even with the high-tempo, slightly-higher revenues, and superb skills of Super Rugby, we have been unable, yet, to stem the tide of departures from South Africa to the North.

I won’t shed a tear over Dean Greyling and Marcel van der Merwe leaving to Oyonnax and Toulon, respectively, but I am not happy about workhorse Lappies Labuschagne (Kubota Spears), Vincent Koch (Saracens), Nic Groom (Northampton), young lock Jean Kleyn (Munster), dynamic Marcell Coetzee (Ulster), speedster Paul Jordaan (La Rochelle), Franco Mostert (Lyon), Steven Sykes (Oyonnax) leaving, and our inability to lure Francois Hougaard back.

Also, coaches like Dawie Theron, Rassie Erasmus, and Jacques Nienaber are choosing other leagues to ply their trade. I long for a day when the tide reverses; when 90,000 attend our big final, as did the Top 14 championship game.

“Biggest highlights of Super Rugby 2016? To me, it’s been (a) the compelling season-long contest between Barrett and Cruden to be the Alpha Dog playmaker in New Zealand, and (b) every time Ardie Savea touches the ball. Savea seems to be made of a different type of sinew than the other elite athletes he faces. I like the way he grinds out that extra yard or two, but how fluid he is in space. His hair makes him look like a Standard Poodle in full flight.

“The BBBBB versus Crude Oil is the best reality show on TV. Crude Oil is more refined than when he took the reins. His neck injury allowed BBBBB to show his stuff. But then Cruden was masterful in Cape Town, right after Barrett was drowning the Sharks. Barrett is hovering around 70 percent in his kicking and half of his kicks are in the worst kicking stadium in rugby. Which brings us to this weekend…”

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Paddy: “Regarding Brett’s big question, aside from not watching as much rugby as I would have liked (you can blame an early loss of Foxtel), I’ll go with watching the Force and Reds. Every time I sat down the watch them I just saw mounting ineptitude and a lack of ideas. They didn’t try much, probably because they couldn’t with their lack of skill and cohesion.

“It was truly abysmal rugby.

“My biggest highlight were the Blues, and in general watching New Zealand derbies. I managed, somehow, to watch the Blues most weeks, and although they lost plenty, they ripped in and put together some of the most remarkable passages of play you’ll see. Next year people…

“New Zealand derbies are also just great to watch. Sadly, the same could not be said for a Reds-Force game.”

Brett: My highlight is a really easy one, and I can see that it might be one is shared fairly widely.

For all their battles on the field, the way the Tokyo crowd got behind the Sunwolves was just amazing. Don’t forget, when those bloody wonderful little Moondogs played their first game at the Prince Chichibu Stadium at the end of February, Japan was only just coming out of winter. But they sold they place out, and they turned up in big numbers all season, including their second-biggest crowd of the year for their last game of the season, against the Waratahs earlier this month, as summer was kicking in properly.

All up, they averaged more than 17,000 at their five games in Tokyo and to put it that context, it’s better all bar the Blues and Waratahs in the trans-Tasman group, and probably ranks them above the Bulls at fourth in the African group, behind the Lions, Stormers and Sharks. And I say ‘probably’ because the crowd figures out of Africa have been notoriously tough to get, the further the season went on.

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The Sunwolves got a lot of things wrong in the first season of Super Rugby, but you can’t fault their ability to draw a crowd. Already. I reckon that justifies the expansion, too.

And while it would be easy to wail on the Australian teams as the disappointment of the season – which would be well-warranted, for the record – I found myself getting more and more frustrated with the way the Jaguares’ season promised so much and delivered so little.

So perhaps the real disappointment was expecting so much of them to begin with? I don’t know. How else should we have viewed a squad so laden with internationals, though? Hopefully they’ll be better for the run in 2017.

The summary

The Crowd picks…?
The Hurricanes and Lions. The ‘Canes held a strong lead from the outset, and that never waivered as more than 500 responses came through.

The Lions picked up a bit of an overnight surge, after voting late yesterday separated the Lions and Highlanders by less than 1% at one stage.

73.8% Hurricanes
53.3% Lions

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Best of luck with your tips this weekend.

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