Ahoy Roarers! The roughies were out in force at Flemington on Saturday, including a $101 chance to close out the day, but hopefully we can bounce back this Saturday.
I’ll be previewing the quaddies at Caulfield this Saturday, starting off with the early quaddie, with the legs being races two through to five.
Leg one – VOBIS Gold Stayers
2400m
St Leger winner Authoritarian looks as though he has the pace to lead, with outsider Don’t Be Shy possibly going forward also. Looks a race in three between Bondeiger, Scherzoso and Oncidium Ruler.
Suggestion: 3-4-5
Leg two – Brian Reckas Handicap
1000m
Sydney visitor Crafty Cop showed good speed in a recent Rosehill trial and from a decent gate she can push forward. She looks the one to beat, with another Sydney raider, Kentucky Miss, the threat.
Suggestion: 1-3-7-8
Leg three – John Skewes Handicap
1200m
Stack of speed engaged here with up to seven runners going forward. Conspicuous Maid jumped out well prior to last start when bloused late. She draws to sit with cover and ambush. D-Day for Anatola too, she ticks plenty of boxes.
Suggestion: 2-3-5-9-10-11
Leg four – Helen Egan Handicap
2000m
It’s Humphrey led all the way last start in breaking the maiden tag at Sale, and with Craig Newitt aboard, he’ll be near the tempo again. Alamonteel was an impressive winner last Saturday on the Parks track in Adelaide and should go close.
Suggestion: 1-2-3-11-12
$50 investment: 11.90 per cent of the dividend if successful
Leg one – Debra Coombs Handicap
1200m
The lead looks on a platter for the Sydney visitor Butterboom, who is in ripping form. If the tempo is strong, I’m all over Vibrant Rouge, who looks well placed from the good draw.
Suggestion: 1-2-3-4-8
Leg two – Thebigscreencompany.com.au Bletchingly Stakes
1200m
Looks to be really good speed here with Charmed Harmony, Lord Of The Sky and The Cleaner all front-running types. Charmed Harmony did look sharp in a recent jump out and looks the overs, as does The Cleaner.
Suggestion: 2-3-5-10
Leg three – Ladbrookes Odds Boost Handicap
1400m
Thelburg and Little Bita Spunk are the speed runners engaged here. Really good race with plenty of depth engaged. Mr Individual and Prince Of Brooklyn hard to beat.
Suggestion: 1-2-4-10-11-13
Leg four – The Champagne Pommery Masters Handicap (78)
1400m
Fast Approaching to lead here from the good draw. That sets up perfectly for Magicus, who should get the perfect drag up near the tempo, and looks a standout bet in the lucky last.
Suggestion: 5
$50 investment: 41.66 per cent of the dividend if successful.
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titch
Guest
Trying to work out these BM78's is like trying to work out the Da Vinci code; only harder...
Adam Page
Roar Guru
UPDATED TIPS: Early Quaddie 3-4-5 2-3-7-8 2-3-5-9-10-11 1-2-3-11-12 Quaddie 1-2-3-5-8 3-5-10-12 2-3-4-10-11-13 5
Adam Page
Roar Guru
Totally agree with Magicus Andrew. These 78 races are a near nightmare to work out, but he is the one with upside, a good gate and Williams aboard. He ticks every box for me.
Johnybulldog
Guest
Love ur work andrew,cheers mate.
andrew
Guest
CAUL 1 – khutulun has challenged her trainer in how to be placed after showing good promise as a stayer as a 3yo filly and then scoring a good sprinting win as a 4yo in BM84 on Kyneton cup day. Her distances have been a bit mixed. But she has always raced in pretty good class, either cups, open hcps or BM90-84. So no doubt she is up to this class wise. This prep, she seems to be wanting more distance, and she has a good grounding of run for the 2000m assignment here. 2000m form includes a 2nd to Cadillac mt in weribee cup and a 2nd to sontagg (who won QLD at its very next run). Two runs back carried big weight and ran home strong. Last time she loomed to win but winner who had a soda in front kicked back (and winner has run 2nd to divan). Like her off the 7 day back up, should be a peak run. weak race of limited chance and a few out of their ratings band that are not progressive types. Draws for a perfect run. drying track to her advantage. 2 – note dodgy weight scale here. Love these VOBIS races, have cleaned up in them in the past in recent years (red bomber, trust in a gust, even firehouse rock) where they are set weights and you have exposed form, and few average horses who (understandably) run given the prizemoney is too good. you can quickly narrow down the chances here. Pretty happy to back bondeiger to turn tables on schezeroso here. Firstly, the 3kgs weight swing. But that’s peripheral, a bonus of sorts. First up run was huge when took from back and sustained long run and rightly faded last bit. Last time was an awful ride by Williams getting held up at the wrong time and losing all momentum. Still only 1.4l off the winner. Tragic it was. You can be sure Williams wont stuff it up twice in a row. These 2 come through clearly the strongest form ref, being the open hcp and BM90 grade races, the longeron formline shall we call it. but im much more confident bondeiger at 2400m than shcezeroso. Bondeiger has run 2nd in a derby to preferment, and last spring was 4th to amralah in the Herbert power at G2 (amralah was one of the best runs of the spring that day in my view – more to come on him for sure as spring looms closer). None of these have credentials anywhere near that level. Given last 2 runs we can be confident its going well for weir. 5 and 10 have half claims, sneaky chances, but 10 comes through pretty weak 3yo races (horses in those races have been running well of maidens and 64’s) and 5 is promising but cant back it at level weights here. 7 – odyssey moon good value hope here at $10 or so. Draws with speed on his inside and his outside, so can sit just off the leading pack but with cover, but not too wide, but not pushed onto the rail. Carriers the best race fitness. But confident he is up to the class also and the WFA scale (at this level) based on much of his early form. this is why he has oft been up in the weight over the winter since joining smerdon yard. His run at caul when first up in feb at G3 level in a strong race was super. His last run was very good too, they went too slow in front and newitt rode too confident setting his horse an impossible task the last 300m when he asked it to go, poorly judged ride race wise, but effort from horse very good. with fitness doubts on some key rivals here who are 1st up or 2nd up and have bigger fish to fry this prep, this race lends itself to the race fit in-form on-pace runner who has ‘enough’ class. 8 – prince of brookyn comes through same race as odyssey moon and was another who charged late. His run was of merit also, given he was 2nd up and staying at 1200m, and surely wants 1400m, possibly even more, given dam bloodlines. But he should strike a 1400m race with strong tempo, and price looks to have him back in form this prep, after showing promise at 2, but then failing last spring when on a guineas path. Wolf of wall street massive unders for mine at the moment in a big field, and 3rd run into first prep, no doubt a talented horse, but lots of risks associated with him. 9 – magicus looks the good bet of the day in the last, a smart horse going places in a BM78 with horses who are stuck in the ratings systems and take their turn but are going nowhere. Magicus had a super first prep, going deep and graduating at each run. first up run was super covering ground all the way on strong speed, ridden to suit pattern at MV when leadind, and got the job done, think he is much better with a trail. Draws the absolute premium barrier here for Williams to control the entire race, and basically stays in the same class given this BM78 and he won BM78 last time. 3rd up, out to the 1400m, he looks the winner, and confident he is a group horse in the making, just that waller is doing it step by step rather than thrown in the deep end. These are great horses to bet on in these races, and the big field means it wont get too short. Best: confident to have a parlay on khutulun, bondeiger and magicus (3 x doubles and 1 x treble), and will also have a treble for all 3 to place. SYD I will be having a bet on extensible in the 4th and labdien in the 5th. ADL 5 – liminal improved 2nd up for price since coming from moody yard even though track pattern did aid him, but goes into this 3rd and whislt 1200m is his upper limit, the weight drop and good barrier should help him, and of course I am thinking magicus is a good formline for a moderate BM82 race over the border. 8- very interesting that mcevoy runs ascendance in this race rather than the group race. cant figure out why he would. It beat some key chances in that race last time. His win last time was super, storming home. Mc evoy has publicly stated he thinks its up to melb sat grade, and its form this prep is warranting the moniker from the trainer. Sure to get back again, and drawn wide over sprint trip, so it will be painful watch, all down to the last 200m, but big field in a 1000m should be strong tempo and hopefully can get over the top of them (although track was dodgy last sat in ADL with last 2 winners on outside rail).
Razzar
Guest
Can Fast and Rocking break his drought ? His roll call of past opponents says he's up to kneck in the Bletchingly. After having no luck in the Ever so ugly Monash a few weeks back he's due for some favours here with decent speed in this event. Gaps should certainly open up for him somwhere. For me he's a genuine 6/4 chance, and pace will be on, not like the Monash-Crawl we saw last run. Been following Jimivag in race 2...a very even race, but the $16 is generous overs. Good luck punters