The difference between 62 and 43 is exponentially more than 19.
Lewis Hamilton trailed Nico Rosberg by 43 points, or almost two outright race wins, after five rounds of the championship.
The German derived his lead from four hard-earnt victories while his teammate toiled with a combination of poor form and unreliability. It was the championship-winning arrival so many had hoped Rosberg would present, and, even if it was a touch opportunistic, it threatened to permanently break Hamilton’s two-season run of irresistible form.
But time moves quickly in the world’s fastest sport – the turnaround since May has been a staggering 62-point swing to the reigning world champion and an unrecognisable reconfiguration of the title fight on its adjournment for the European summer.
The points reversal, winning Hamilton almost an outright victory’s advantage, has been delivered by six wins in the last seven races, a record blighted only by his qualifying mistake at the European Grand Prix.
The rewriting of the 2016 script is as interesting as it is brutal. Rosberg’s wins at the beginning of the season were borne of genuine fine form while Hamilton’s toil was down to real struggle rather than mere misfortune.
But Rosberg had always been more delicately poised in his own performance window than Hamilton, and with hindsight the pair’s first-lap crash in Barcelona was what knocked him from his zone – and let Hamilton back into his.
It should have been the defining moment in Rosberg’s application for his first champion’s trophy – a refusal to give his teammate and only credible title rival and easy pass, instead forcing him to opt out of a guaranteed crash – but the opposite is proving true.
“I think Spain was definitely a turning point,” he reflected. “It was rock bottom, basically – but the only way was up. I managed to get my head together and get on with it. Since then we’ve pulled together.”
The crash woke Hamilton from his post-championship hangover. He became alive to the fact that he’d lost seven – yes, *seven* – races in succession to his teammate because the coast mode he’d been able to employ to beat the submissive Rosberg the previous season was no longer effective.
The races since have been a matter of systematically dismantling Nico Rosberg’s advantage, eventually culminating in the collapse of his points lead.
It began with Hamilton dominating his hapless teammate in Monte Carlo and it continued with the recovery of his qualifying form, his race start technique, and his confidence wheel-to-wheel against Rosberg on the track. It concluded with psychological domination.
“When you go from one strength to another is an incredibly empowering feeling, motivating and inspiring,” he said after resuming the championship lead in Hungary.
One by one each of the skills Rosberg thought he had tuned to be beyond Hamilton’s reach were washed away until in Budapest he was forced to use his slim one-point title margin as his psychological prop.
“We can all agree on the fact that so far up to now I’ve had the best season of all drivers. That’s the fact for me,” he said, barely convincingly.
But that same weekend, with blood in the water, Hamilton ensured Rosberg couldn’t rely on that, either.
The Briton gambled on playing politics, not traditionally a strong suit. He ran to race control after Rosberg controversially snatched pole from under him in yellow flag conditions, eventually forcing the stewards to reconsider the matter in light of ‘new evidence’.
Even without a penalty Hamilton’s behaviour sufficiently stirred the pot in his favour – paddock talk suggests the Mercedes hierarchy is far from pleased with is star driver choosing to take in-house matters out of the motorhome – giving Rosberg another front on which to fight the championship fire.
The only thing left working for Rosberg’s title bid is that Hamilton will need to start from the back of the grid at least once in the second half of the year to install a new power unit after early season unreliability. However, with Hamilton’s advantage approaching the 25 points earned for a race win, even this is of little comfort to the former championship leader.
Hamilton leading the championship standings by 19 points isn’t impressive because of the size of the turnaround; the demolition of Rosberg’s championship platform is what defines the Briton’s comeback.
This is why Rosberg is almost certain to finish runner-up. It is simply because there’s no compelling reason for him to win the championship. Whether it is his speed in qualifying or in the race or his race starts or racecraft, Rosberg lacks, even if only by small percentages, when compared to a returned-to-form Hamilton.
If it’s the best man who wins, Rosberg’s out of luck.
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Patric Cantrell
Guest
A few have made the statement that Nico is just being Nico, and to that, I couldn't agree more. If you look at Nico from his early days at Williams, he's always been a good qualifier, good at setting up his car for that ultimate lap and very good at communicating with his engineers what he 'feels' in the car. Those are great skills every driver needs. Unfortunately for Nico, he's never been able to develop his race craft with the same level of precision. Drivers who win championships need to be able to qualify strongly on the optimal race set up for the car, have incredible situational awareness in the car, and the ability to remain supremely calm behind the wheel. Listen to Nico on the radio, he often, even when leading, seems to be in panic mode. I expect him to have a bit of a resurgence in the second half of the season just because he will be able to receive more coaching from the pits which will help him with his on-track awareness and in managing his car. Bottom line, Nico has still not had that epic drive where he's come from the back, moved through the entire field and gone on to win or at least come second. He needs something like this for his own self confidence as much as he needs it for his popularity as a driver. It's the reason he's considered the 3rd or 4th best German driver in the field, is barely acknowledged or defended in his "home country' of Germany and has a much smaller fan base that many less successful drivers in the field. His popularity haunts him more that his teammates skill. Maybe it's his upbringing, or maybe just personal insecurities, but Nico craves to be loved and adored by the public. He tries to appeal to his bosses, the German fans and anyone who will listen from the position of 'you SHOULD love me'. That desperation pops up when he's defending poor choices on track (like his run in's with Lewis and Max V.) as much as it does the almost unwatchable PR videos he does with the team on YouTube. Even that contrived dog and pony show resigning event with Toto points to his level of neediness. I'm not saying that Lewis is without fault or or emotional baggage. He certainly check out at the end of last season, partially as a head game for Nico, and hopefully, he learned his lesson when he started the season off pace. Lewis has come back the way Lewis always does when he gets cornered, he learns new skills, or at least lets them shine. He did this to Fernando Alonzo when they were at McLaren and Fernando became convinced that Lewis was only succeeding because the team was sharing his set up data - Lewis quickly became better at set up that Alonzo. Nico has done the same thing, believing Lewis to be the more 'natural' seat of the pants driver and himself the smarter, more technical driver. Lewis's early season mechanical issues have made him be the smart driver, pushing his car just enough to win, stretching his hardware so he'll only need one, not two extra engines to get through the season. Does anyone doubt that Nico wouldn't be able to do the same??? Nico could win a championship, he's in an amazing car. But he's going to need to learn to evolve. His teammate has won races in every season he's been in F1, including year's he's been is very poor cars. He can't count on the team to give him an advantage (they even switched crews between the drivers this year, Lewis proving that there was no difference in the skills of the people putting together the cars in the Mercedes garage. It's going to take Nico changing. If he keeps waiting on Lewis to make mistakes or have problems or the team to give him an advantage, he's going to struggle to even stay #2. Red Bull is coming and they have two stars in their garage!!!
Mark Young
Roar Guru
It really grind my gears!
Cento
Guest
That was an awesome rant and I agree with every bit of it. As long as Lewis doesn't mention the war!
anon
Guest
"The penalty for his defensive effort against Verstappen this weekend has also proved controversial with many (even members of the British press!) agreeing that it was harsh and most likely uncalled for." Don't be fooled by the British media. They're being magnanimous to Rosberg because the title is done and dusted. Secondly, Hamilton has pulled the same moves against Rosberg about half a dozen times, so criticising Rosberg will only make people ask why they didn't criticise Hamilton for his dirty moves on Rosberg.
anon
Guest
"I don’t like to discount Rosberg’s early lead precisely because, as you said, Hamilton made mistakes. To me the 43-point difference, less maybe 10 owing the Hamilton for reliability, was a fair representation of who was doing the better job" I agree. I think it was China where Hamilton just spat the dummy and settled for 7th place. And getting a good start is a function of driving skill and critical in terms of your chance of winning. So Rosberg for sure deserved that early round lead. But I think the early round lead was more about Hamilton not getting the most out of himself, rather than Rosberg taking his driving to a higher level. It's part of the reason why I don't rate Hamilton. The inconsistency. He can get away with it when he has the 3rd or 4th best German on the grid as teammate and his car has a 0.5 to 1 second gap on the field depending on the circuit. "Since Spain Hamilton has raised his game — he’s even found a guy to coach him on his starts, which was one of his most significant weaknesses, and the culmination was him nailing it off the line in Germany. At very least Hamilton’s had to work to regain the edge." Hamilton's simply back to where he should have been, and Rosberg is being Rosberg. I think people look too closely into these rivalries. There's no question Hamilton is the better driver. Since 2014 it's effectively been only two guys in contention for a win each race -- Hamilton and Rosberg. They both have the same machinery. There's nothing else to see or know about this rivalry. It's done and dusted and has been since 2014. We've had roughly 50 races since the start of 2014 with only a couple races where Mercedes weren't genuinely quickest (and that was down to tyres and setup more than anything). If Federer and Berdych did the equivalent (and I'm not comparing Hamilton to someone as good as Federer), and faced each other 50 times in a row in tournament finals, I think Federer would win 9 out of 10 times. Motor racing has variables, so it can skew how dominant someone is in the short term. Take the variables away and Hamilton beats Rosberg 9 out of 10 times.
Mark Young
Roar Guru
Rant alert....Begin! During the lead up to the race, I was thinking about Hamilton and Rosberg and I was just furious with them both. Hamilton, is the bad guy from a Disney Movie. He swans about with a faux air of blessed but is incapable of dealing with a non-victory without a whine. WAAH the radio restrictions WAAH Nico did something in Qually WAAH. For his entire career, he has used the obsessive British F1 press to plead his case to the world that he is the gifted golden child, heir to Senna and constantly hard done by. From the moment he joined the team, he has tried and succeeded in undermining Nico. I mean really, how on earth does he think he can criticise Nico for being a fortunate child who via subtext has lucked into F1 when Lewis had a McLaren backing from age 11! I came in and had a look online at articles about Hamilton's greatest moments, all of which I watched live. And realised that for every single one of them, I was hoping, Mighty Ducks style, that he would be tripped up and beaten. I have not enjoyed a single moment of Lewis Hamilton's triumphant career! So cards on the table, I don't like him, and he makes me furious. Which is why I am so damn angry with Nico Rosberg! Nico, is a gun. He set fastest lap in his first ever race. He drove an F1 car as a teenager before it was cool. He saw off Michael Schumacher, he matched Mark Webber. He deserves his spot in the fastest car on the grid. But he needs to man up to Lewis! Lewis is treating him like dirt, undermining and mocking him. Belittling every achievement he makes, while Nico just seems to take it. When Lewis started insinuating that Nico stopped on purpose at Monaco to nobble his lap, why wasn't Nico out there pointing out how completely absurd an idea it was, mocking Lewis for being a whiner, and laughing at how pathetic his comments were (regardless of whether it was true or not!) When Lewis punted him off the track at Barcelona, why didn't Nico walk over and wave his hands in his face, clench a fist! I want Rosberg to wake up and fight! When Nico chucked his hat back at Lewis after Austen, it started a 7 race streak of victories which I had hoped was the awakening of Nico. But now he is back in his old habits again and meekly sitting back behind the Disney villain. So Germany, incredibly disappointing. But there is still hope. Nico needs to set pole at Belgium, walk up to Lewis before the race smiling to shake his hand, lean in and say "Lap 1 I'll be going through Eau Rouge in first place or we will both be in the F$%king wall...... think about it you goose....... " Then smile, get in his car and win the race. And when Lewis starts whining in the press conference trying to infer what he had said, roll his eyes and make mocking crying gestures while Dan Ricciardo laughs. FIGHT DAMN IT ROSBERG!!! FIGHT!!!!!! Rant over.
Rodney Gordon
Expert
"Better on merit in the wet", yeah that's pretty spot on. I'll give you that.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
Yeah, it's worth emphasising Rosberg isn't hopeless. I expect him to finish second in the title, and he will, on his day, get one up on Hamilton. I suppose the difference is that he really needs things to be going his way, for the stars to align, for that to happen, whereas Hamilton is capable of fighting back on an off day — the turnaround from qualifying to the race as an example. As for Monaco, while some of it might be down to brake temperatures, Rosberg also showed in Silverstone that, for whatever reason, he can't drive this car in the wet, so I think it's fair to say he was still outclassed on merit in Monte Carlo.
Rodney Gordon
Expert
Agreed, the engine penalty isn't worth very much - other than the fact that Hamilton can continue to use it to gain sympathy from those that are inclined to do so.
Rodney Gordon
Expert
Let me play devil's advocate - it seems to be a speciality of mine. I don't disagree with your conclusion, however a few other points could be made here. Hamilton didn't really dominate Rosberg in Monaco, Rosberg out-qualified him and was just crap in the race due mostly to temperatures. It's a generous compliment to Hamilton to say he dominated considering that he shouldn't have even won that race. Rosberg also bit back by claiming pole in Germany and although his race was again pretty average, it signals that he's not being completely dominated by his teammate and is capable of beating him on pure pace on occasion. Also, it's curious that Rosberg is constantly under the scrutiny of the stewards and yet Hamilton could flagrantly break the regulations (i.e. being unsafely released from the pits during practice) and yet escapes a reprimand. Rosberg, on the other hand, was investigated after one qualifying session for going excessively slow and was released because it turned out he wasn't even on the kind of lap they thought he was. The penalty for his defensive effort against Verstappen this weekend has also proved controversial with many (even members of the British press!) agreeing that it was harsh and most likely uncalled for. But I don't want to put on the tin-foil hat completely ;) Certainly the points turn-around demonstrates the impressive recovery from Hamilton, and although I expect from this position he'll win the title I wouldn't completely write off Rosberg just yet.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
I don't like to discount Rosberg's early lead precisely because, as you said, Hamilton made mistakes. To me the 43-point difference, less maybe 10 owing the Hamilton for reliability, was a fair representation of who was doing the better job. Since Spain Hamilton has raised his game — he's even found a guy to coach him on his starts, which was one of his most significant weaknesses, and the culmination was him nailing it off the line in Germany. At very least Hamilton's had to work to regain the edge.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
As you say, it'd only be if Hamilton and the team mismanage those power unit penalties. If they wait until Monza to take the first one, Hamilton could easily find himself 26 points up on Rosberg if/after he wins in Spa, at which point he could not score at all in Italy and still lead. One more win to Hamilton would hand him decisive control of the championship.
anon
Guest
I said after round 5, with 16 races left, it was almost inconceivable that Hamilton wouldn't win the championship. Rosberg has never actually beaten Hamilton in a straight fight on track since 2014. The only time is at the end of last season when the championship had been won and Hamilton was turning up to race weekends with a hangover. Rosberg got an early lead in the championship on account of Hamilton having poor reliability in qualifying and making mistakes off the start line. Hamilton is in the exact same equipment as Rosberg, he's the faster driver than Rosberg. He effectively has an edge at 21 out of 21 races. It's not like when you have an even championship with 2 or 3 teams in contention. In such a season your chance of coming back from a big deficit is diminished because your car might have an edge at 10 races and your opponent (in the other team) might have a car with an edge at 11 races. In such a scenario you'll trade wins and there's not much you can do to overcome an inherent car disadvantage. In Hamilton's case, he has the same equipment, the team is built around him, and he is a quicker driver. He has the edge at 21 races. Rosberg is the 3rd or 4th best German driver on the grid.
Jamie
Guest
Hamilton still has engine penalties to come and as we have seen this year he can struggle to get back to the front from the rear of the grid. This will bring Rosberg back to the front in the drivers championship. As Toto Wolff said, the title race will come down to the wire. But it will only come down to the wire if Mercedes mismanage the upcoming penalties and Hamilton runs into more mechanical issues and Rosberg has no issues of his own.