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The best and worst case scenarios for AFL Round 20

The Eagles look good in 2017, but not quite the goods. (AAP Image/Tony McDonough)
Roar Guru
4th August, 2016
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Round 20 is upon us, getting us out of those troublesome teen rounds and into the business end of the home-and-away season.

So what can we expect – both the good and bad – this weekend?

Richmond vs Collingwood

Richmond
Best: Alex Rance has an absolute howler of a game, but despite this anomaly, Richmond captain Trent Cotchin staves away critics for another week with a 40-disposal performance, all the while dominating the contested football with partner in crime Dusty Martin.

Tigers by 27 points.

Worst: For the second week in a row, Rance receives the tick of approval from the coach’s box, named best on ground for the AFLCA award. Rance’s dominance is a by-product of Richmond losing the inside 50 count, 67 to 34, and while no Pies forward fires, the Tigers’ struggling midfield are exposed again as Scott Pendlebury, Taylor Adams and Adam Treloar each kick two goals.

Magpies by 70 points.

Collingwood
Best: Travis Cloke finds a glove that fits and in the process also finds his form in the absence of youngster Darcy Moore. The power forward kicks five goals against All Australian defender Rance, while young recruit James Aish continues to display the form that made him a tantalising target for Collingwood at the end of 2015, kicking two goals for the second week in a row.

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Worst: Collingwood’s form from their win over West Coast reaches a screeching halt as a multitude of skill errors allow the perfect reprieve for under-siege Richmond coach Damien Hardwick.

The Tigers capitalise on a +25 clanger count, as the Pies turn the ball over six times in their own defensive 50.

Tigers by 11 points.

Sydney vs Port Adelaide

Sydney
Best: Buddy Franklin returns to the smaller confines of the SCG and takes advantage of Port’s young backline, kicking five goals and pitching in with three goal assists in a dominant performance.

The Swans find a pillar for the future as first-year player defender Aliir Aliir keeps the returning Charlie Dixon to only one goal. Swans by 30 points.

Worst: Sydney’s top-four aspirations take a big hit with an un-Swans-like performance, as Port find their inner bully and out-physical the Sydneysiders from the get-go.

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While the Swans win the inside 50 count, their recent abundance of goal kickers go unnoticed as they revert back to ‘Buddy-ball’, with Franklin accounting for more than 50 per cent of inside 50 targets and only a one goal return to show for it. Port by 18 points.

Port Adelaide
Best: Port keep their finals aspirations faintly flickering with a physical display as they often do against highly touted opposition. Makeshift ruckman Jackson Trengove gets sick of roving his own ball and instead leaps all over Sam Naismith on his way to 48 hit outs, while Dixon is welcomed back with a four-goal haul. Port by 22 points.

Worst: Defenders Matthew Broadbent and Jasper Pittard play with attacking purpose, and while each finish with more than eight defensive rebounds, their aggressive style of play leave them susceptible against the Swans mid-sized forwards Isaac Heeney and Gary Rowan, each finishing with four goals. Swans by 64 points.

Melbourne vs Hawthorn

Melbourne
Best: The Dees’ losing streak to the Hawks and the cult status of Max Gawn continues to grow as he drags Melbourne across the line on the back of 19 disposals and three goals. The future looks bright as first-year players Sam Weiderman, Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca (after elongated injury problems) finish with more than 20 touches. Melbourne by 10 points.

Worst: Melbourne put forth a performance akin to that of last week but with one difference: Gold Coast are no Hawthorn. The Hawks capitalise on a sloppy opponent and dominate time in the forward half with 64 per cent. Hawks by 55 points.

Hawthorn
Best: Hawthorn let Melbourne fans know how far off the mark they are with a demolition so deflating that Demons supporters would have wished the merger went through. Sam Mitchell continues to wander through AFL midfields untagged on his way to 44 disposals, while Jesse Hogan finishes with a mere six disposals, as spare man Josh Gibson blankets him for the entire of afternoon. Hawthorn by 68 points.

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Worst: A disturbingly un-Hawthorn like display gives Melbourne fans another reason for optimism in 2017. None of the experienced heads eclipse 23 disposals, while a bad day turns worse for an an irritated Cyril Rioli, as he has his number taken for a brazen ‘tummy tap’ on Melbourne instigator Tomas Bugg. Melbourne by 35 points.

Gold Coast vs Greater Western Sydney

Gold Coast
Best: Unfortunately the adage ‘sometimes your best isn’t good enough’ applies to the Suns, who put up a spirited effort led by Tom Lynch, who gives Phil Davis’ All Australian aspirations another dent by kicking five goals on the Giants captain. Gold Coast’s pressure around the ball keeps them in the game but they ultimately don’t have the cattle to see out a win. Giants by 22 points.

Worst: It gets ugly. Shane Mumford eclipses his own personal best with 64 hit outs, while Jeremy Cameron reminds people of his goal-kicking prowess, flirting with double figures but ultimately finishing with 7.5 to his name. Giants by 91 points.

GWS
Best: See above. The Giants give their percentage a much-needed boost (in context) and position themselves to finish not only top-four but potentially land home-ground advantage through the finals. Jonathon Patton, Jeremy Cameron and Rory Lobb hit their strides ahead of the finals, finishing with 15 goals between them on the way to a big win. Giants by 103 points.

Worst: As all good teams do, the Giants find a way to win despite playing down to the level of their competition. The Giants walk away disappointed as their inability to kick straight turned a potential 12-goal catapult toward top-two contention into a pedestrian three-goal victory. Giants by 16 points.

Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne

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Western Bulldogs
Best: The returning Dale Morris takes ten marks in the defensive half of the ground, while Tom Boyd continues his good form in a more understated fashion, by nullifying the impact of Roos big man Todd Goldstein to an extent, while also kicking two goals. Dogs by 15 points.

Worst: Another week, another injury as the Bulldogs lose a player early in the game due to concussion, and while his physical condition seems fine to play, better judgement takes control and Doggies are down to 21 early in the first quarter.

Drew Petrie continues to sip from the fountain of youth with two goals and four goal assists in the Kangaroos’ win. Roos by 30 points.

Kangaroos
Best: Once a lock for the All Australian ruck spot, Todd Goldstein finds his form against the makeshift duo of Jordan Roughead and Tom Boyd with 48 hit outs and three goals. Robbie Tarrant continues his fine 2016 campaign, keeping Jake Stringer to one goal in a hard-fought win. Roos by 14 points.

Worst: The forward trio of Ben Brown, Drew Petrie and Majak Daw fail to fire, with only two goals between the three as North continue to rely on small forwards Lindsay Thomas and Brent Harvey to kick a winning score. Dogs by 30 points.

Adelaide vs Brisbane

Adelaide
Best: Adelaide supporters are treated to another edition of the Eddie Betts show, which once again turns an otherwise one-sided game into must-see TV. Betts kicks two of the goals of the year, including an over-the-head, scissor kick, inverted torpedo from ‘Eddie’s pocket’. Crows by 78 points.

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Worst: Adelaide fail to capitalise on a big percentage building opportunity as the Crows struggle to get out of second gear. Crows fans have reason for alarm as they discover what life without Sam Jacobs is like, with ruckman Reilly O’Brien having little impact on the game. Crows by 25 points.

Brisbane
Best: The Lions perform admirably against the Crows as their younger brigade display enough talent to excite the fans for what’s ahead. Josh Schache kicks a career-high three goals against Daniel Talia, while Rhys Mathieson continues to make a name for himself by kicking a goal from ‘Eddie’s pocket’ before saluting the Adelaide faithful in the front row. Crows by 28 points.

Worst: Brisbane won’t necessarily be judged on final margin but rather the spirit, energy and skill level they go about it. The worst possible scenario is another poor performance against a South Australian side who put up their own second highest score in club history.

Note: That score would have to be 187 for the Crows, as their current highest is 188 and second highest is 187. Crows by… a lot?

Carlton vs St Kilda

Carlton
Best: The Blues send off Andrew Walker with a tight goalfest against a Saints team who’ve seemingly made the leap from exciting youthful team, to genuine mid-tier contender heading into the off-season. Dale Thomas slots right back into the team after missing three games by racking up 25 touches and two goals in the win. Blues by 9 points.

Worst: The Saints let Carlton know that despite improvement, they are still a cut below the middle of the pack. Josh Bruce and Tim Membrey run rampant with four goals each, while Jacob Weitering looks suspiciously like a first-year player against the ageless Nick Riewoldt. Saints by 38 points.

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St Kilda
Best: Josh Bruce silences his critics for the time being with seven contested marks and a goal, while Jack Steven all but cements his All Australian status with 40 disposals and three goals. Saints by 62 points.

Worst: St Kilda continue to tease their optimistic fan-base as they’re out-hunted and out-played by Blues team who on paper should be where the Saints about two years ago. Saints’ tall forwards fail to make an impact as they’re blanketed Carlton’s young defenders, while Zach Tuohy single-handedly launches attacks from defence with 11 defensive rebounds. Blues by 33 points.

Geelong vs Essendon

Geelong
Best: Each of Geelong’s big three inclusions fire. Lachie Henderson swings between attack and defence effectively, while both Josh Caddy and Scott Selwood finish with more than 23 disposals each, providing more of a (welcomed) selection conundrum at the Cattery. Also, Nakia Cockatoo takes a mark of the year contender to cap off a big percentage-boosting game. Cats by 88 points.

Worst: The ghost of James Kelly and Matthew Stokes convince the Cats to go light on the Bombers as players ‘manage’ themselves for the finals, rather than go for the jugular. Cats by 21 points.

Essendon
Best: The Bombers take it to Geelong for the better part of three-quarters, until the Cats are scared straight by the prospect of travelling in the first week of the finals. James Kelly performs admirably in what is likely his final go-around against his former club, while Joe Daniher kicks three goals against Harry Taylor. Cats by 37 points.

Worst: The Cats show no mercy for the beleaguered Bombers. Tom Hawkins has been up and down with form but finds the perfect remedy against the Bombers backline as he kicks seven goals but barely moves the needle in comparison to Geelong’s final score. Cats by 127 points.

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Fremantle vs West Coast

Fremantle
Best: Freo take some solace out of a horror season by all but assuring a first round finals flight for the Eagles. While Aaron Sandilands is the Dockers’ biggest inclusion, he doesn’t make the biggest impact, as injury-plagued youngster Michael Apeness stamps his authority with four goals.

The Dockers send off Pavlich in a bruising, derby classic. Freo by 4 points.

Worst: The flat-track bullies live up to their tag by dismantling Fremantle in an effort that leaves the Freo faithful wondering whether they even left their seats following the Sydney clash last week. Eagles by 55 points.

West Coast
Best: Nic Naitanui returns to the line-up and looks every part the player we’ve come to expect. Most importantly, he finishes the game unscathed.

While the Eagles are yet to prove their worth interstate, a big win helps set up a home game in the first week. Eagles by 60 points.

Worst: The Eagles carry the same level of intensity from the Collingwood clash into Domain Stadium and quickly discover that more is required from a Derby clash. Freo out-tackle an Eagles side criticised for their lack of physicality and win thanks to a last-minute Matthew Pavlich goal. Freo by 1 point.

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