In four weeks’ time, players from ten of the 18 teams striving for the ultimate prize in Australian sport will be at home licking their wounds, with one eye on the pre-season.
The less fortunate will be re-calibrating their GPS after finding themselves stranded at the cross-roads – or, even worse, the end of their AFL career.
The off-season is a time for football clubs to sell hope and instil confidence in a fanbase who may see the hoisting of a premiership cup as not only a foolish goal but a mirage of the greatest magnitude.
Despite disappointing seasons for many clubs, hope is right around the corner if you know where to look.
Here are the silver linings for those out of finals contention.
Brisbane Lions
While it may be easy to scoff at Lewis Taylor’s re-signing as a positive given the tumultuous way in which his alleged asking price was made public, for a club whose biggest downfall over the past decade has been their inability to retain young talent, locking away a Rising Star winner for three years is what WWE great Triple H would call “best for business”.
In addition to Taylor’s re-signing, Brisbane can look forward to more games out of veterans Tom Bell, Allen Christensen, Dayne Beams and Tom Rockliff, who have averaged only nine games between them this year. And while it may be too early to tell, young ruckman Archie Smith looks the goods, having averaged 17 disposals and 31 hit outs in his first two career games.
Carlton
Bluebaggers dared to dream of September after a two-point victory against Port Adelaide in Round 8, but with only two wins from their past 11 games, Carlton’s win-loss record probably doesn’t accurately reflect the fan sentiment toward Brendon Bolton’s first year at the helm.
An effective means of predicting a young team’s future success is seeing how they fared in close games. The Blues have lost five games in 2016 by 19 points or less, and with another year in Bolton’s system and the continued growth of a talented young crop of players, some of those results may differ in their sophomore year.
Blues fans should also take solace in the football department’s professional recruiting, as players such as Sam Kerridge, Matthew Wright and Jed Lamb have become effective contributors, despite being met with fairly pedestrian expectations upon arrival.
Collingwood
The (hopeful) return of key players and the strength of the Magpies’ young spine is a reason for optimism heading into 2017. Collingwood would immediately welcome Dane Swan, Jamie Elliott and Alex Fasolo back into the starting 22 after lengthy spells on the sideline, while youngsters Tim Broomhead, Tom Langdon and Matthew Scharenberg are also solid contributors when healthy.
The Pies’ spine is the club’s most exciting prospect. Jonathon Marsh is an old-school defender in the ilk of Simon Prestigiacomo (and like Presti early in his career, he has to clean up his disposal), Taylor Adams and Adam Treloar are the heirs apparent to the Dane Swan-Scott Pendlebury duo, and Darcy Moore gave us a taste of his abilities with a Rising Star nomination in less than a half of football against West Coast in Round 19.
Essendon
It’s obvious right? While the talk of a finals push is premature (let’s not forget where Essendon finished before the suspensions took effect), the likelihood of the majority of banned Bombers returning is a tantalising prospect in an otherwise difficult season for Dons fans.
In addition to the proven veterans, the Bombers faithful have been treated to a glimpse of the future with excellent seasons from Zach and Jackson Merrett, the poise of rookie Darcy Parish, the goal-kicking acumen of Orazio Fantasio, and the sheer tenacity of quite possibly 2016’s best story, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti.
As Harvey Dent said in The Dark Knight, “The night is darkest just before the dawn. And I promise you, the dawn is coming.”
This could well be true for Bombers fans – just disregard how Harvey Dent finished up, it’ll only dishearten you.
Fremantle
Increased playing time for returning stars will play a vital role as to whether 2016 is an anomaly of the Ross Lyon era or a scary vision as to what the future holds.
That said, you won’t find a team in the world that wouldn’t improve with the long-term additions of Nat Fyfe, Harley Bennell, Michael Barlow, Aaron Sandilands and Michael Johnson. For those keeping track at home, that’s a combined 775 games and 274 Brownlow votes.
While the forward line will look different without Matthew Pavlich roaming the forward 50, young talls Matthew Taberner and Michael Apeness have shown potential in spurts and could improve with increased responsibility.
Gold Coast Suns
The emergence of Peter Wright and Tom Lynch as the arguably the most imposing forward tandem outside of Adelaide will have Suns fans wishing for 2017 sooner than their current record would suggest.
What has made the duo’s performances even more impressive is the lack of consistent delivery, due to injuries to the Gold Coast midfield corps. Of the Suns’ top-ten disposal winners so far in 2016, only three (Nick Malceski, Jarrod Harbrow and Kade Kolodjashnij) have played more than 15 games, so a healthy midfield should see even more opportunities for the already potent tall tandem.
Melbourne
Possibly the most exciting of the teams sitting out September, Melbourne possess a young corps and an impressive spine that could carry them through multiple finals campaigns in the near future.
The Dees’ priorities remain in ensuring the future services of Jesse Hogan and Tom McDonald as bookends to an already intimidating midfield group. Youngsters Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca and Sam Weiderman have provided glimpses into the foundation, which will be based around the most improved and arguably most imposing player in the league, Max Gawn.
At this stage, the only thing stopping Melbourne is themselves, as the talent they possess on any given day can rival the league’s best – as they showed this past week against Hawthorn.
Port Adelaide
The return of suspended players Angus Monfries and Patty Ryder should provide flexibility for a Port Adelaide team that has had to improvise in many positions in 2016.
Ryder should provide some relief for embattled but impressive ruckman Jackson Trengove, while Monfries’ 248 career goals’ worth of experience will be a handy addition to a Port forward line that has already found new contributors in Charlie Dixon and Aaron Young.
Richmond
While Tigers fans could look at this current list as one that plateaued before eventually falling off the precipice of finals football, the optimist can also see a group of players who have taken the team to September in three of the past four years.
Time will tell as to whether Richmond attempt to lure a big-name free agent or trade target, but if they are able to free up Jack Riewoldt to play closer to goal to more consistently pair with Sam Lloyd, they possess a goal-kicking duo many teams would envy.
Dusty Martin has well and truly made the leap to elite status and if a number of players can bounce back from sub-par years, the Tigers could push for the eight once again.
St Kilda
The Saints made great strides in 2016, with signature victories against Geelong and the Western Bulldogs, as well as two wins over similar placed Melbourne, and falling short to reigning premiers Hawthorn by only three points in Round 4.
Nick Riewoldt’s new lease on life further up the ground has allowed the young forward trio of Josh Bruce, Tim Membrey and Paddy McCartin to flourish, while Maverick Weller has also been a revelation with a career-high 23 goals so far in 2016.
If St Kilda can turn their average losing margin (44.5 points) into a tighter affair more consistently, they have the firepower to poach games they would have otherwise lost in the past and really make a run at the finals in 2017.
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