UFC 202 Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz: Fight preview and prediction

For the second time in five months, emotions ran high between Conor McGregor and Nate Diaz at a UFC press event, this one ending with both men hurling water bottles and f-bombs.

The seasoned face-punchers are set to lock horns for a second time on Sunday in the main event of UFC 202 in Las Vegas, a rematch of a March bout that Diaz won via second-round submission.

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The press drama began at Thursday’s UFC media event when the Irishman strutted onto the stage 30 minutes late.

Upon his delayed arrival, Diaz and his handlers left the stage. “Hey, f*** your whole team, how about that?” Diaz shouted as he walked toward the exit.

“F*** your whole team,” McGregor yelled in response.

“You’ll do nothing. Shut your f***ing mouth. You’ll do nothing. You’ll do f***ing nothing. Not one of you will do nothing. Get the f*** out of here.”

Diaz then flung a half-empty water bottle at his UFC rival, who retaliated by tossing several other bottles at the tight-knit group, with one accidentally hitting a young girl in the crowd.

This expletive-laden interaction comes just months after McGregor punched the California-based slugger’s hand during a stare-down at a UFC media event, which led to both fighter’s cornermen jumping on stage in search of a brawl. Luckily, security broke it up before the team-versus-team battle erupted.

A lot has changed in the months since their first out-of-the-cage clash.

Back then, McGregor was untouchable.

The John Kavanagh-trained superstar was undefeated in the UFC – winning six of his seven bouts by knockout – and had just obliterated Jose Aldo, the best lighter weight fighter in history, in just 13 seconds, a few ticks longer than Usain Bolt’s 100 metre run for gold in Rio.

The featherweight champ was penciled in to face then-UFC lightweight titlist Rafael dos Anjos in a champion-versus-champion bout at UFC 196, but those plans went up in flames after the Brazilian striker suffered a broken foot in training.

With less than a fortnight until the event, Diaz agreed to step in as a replacement and challenge the dynamite-fisted featherweight in a welterweight bout.

Nate Diaz
Once an underpaid and overlooked contender, Diaz has broken out of those shackles to become an overnight sensation, ten years in the making.

Much like his brother, former Strikeforce welterweight champion Nick Diaz, Nate has always marched to the beat of his own drum. His anti-authoritarian, stick-it-to-the-man+ attitude has made him a fan favourite, but excluded him from the V.I.P club of top earners.

Despite evidence to the contrary, UFC president Dana White always insisted that Diaz was “not a needle-mover,” and his pay cheques reflected that.

The 31-year-old jiu-jitsu fighter pocketed $40,000 ($20,000 to show, $20,000 to win) to beat the snot out of top-ranked contender Michael Johnson in his last bout before the McGregor showdown.

With the bloody, back-and-forth win over the SBG Ireland poster boy under his belt, those days as a 20-and-20 fighter are surely in the rearview mirror.

A boxer by trade, Diaz does his best work in space, using his sharp jab to set up his combination punching.

Similarly to his brother, the younger Diaz wades forward, setting a pace that few can keep up with while unloading a steady, non-stop diet of over punches.

The often overlooked key to Diaz’ success on the feet is his durability. The Richard Perez-trained boxer has taken shots from the cream of the lightweight crop and during his 29-bout, 12-year career has only been knocked out once.

McGregor, one of the most deadly hitters in the UFC, landed more than one stinging punch on the chin, but if it did any crippling damage, he sure didn’t show it.

Conor McGregor
The 28-year-old pay-per-view magnet is hellbent on avenging the loss to Diaz. Plain and simply, winning is a crucial reason behind McGregor’s super-stardom, a foundation built upon his brash persona as a fighter who can talk the talk, then back it up.

The sharp-tongued Irishman needs it, and the UFC needs him to win here, too.

As the new owners take control of the Las Vegas-based fight promotion, the UFC’s top marquee attractions are dropping like flies. Ronda Rousey’s handlers are already quieting talks of a December return, Jon Jones is tied up with the drug police, and Georges St. Pierre, despite talks of a comeback, is still retired.

The featherweight champion is a striker by preference, with a game built around his straight-left. His footwork, his smooth jab, and his kicking arsenal is all used to set-up for his centerpiece punch, which has proven to be a fight finisher.

Fight prediction
A reckless, knockout hunting McGregor entered the UFC 196 main event and paid the price for the single-minded approach.

This strategy worked against Aldo because the fight only lasted 13 seconds. It even worked against Chad Mendes because he was able to land the knockout blow after succumbing to the wrestling-heavy game of the Team Alpha Male stud in the first frame.

Sticking to his guns and entering every fight as a kill-or-be-killer knockout king will make McGregor a disgusting amount of money, but it won’t put his name in the record books as an all-time great.

If the Irishman, as we’ve been led to believe, has cleaned up his steak-and-pasta diet, and put in the hours rounding out his obvious wrestling and jiu-jitsu flaws, then I like his chances this Sunday in Vegas.

This is by no means a cakewalk, though.

Diaz, despite having fought at welterweight in the past, is not a natural 170-pounder, but he does have an obvious and valuable size advantage over the Dubliner.

The one-time UFC title challenger has a reach advantage and uses it to perfection. In the first bout, McGregor, who has been the longer, rangier fighter in all of his previous Octagon appearances, struggled with his long limbs and flickering jab.

The other big advantage that the American journeyman has in his back pocket is the one he used to slay the Irish dragon in the first place, his black belt-level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu.

For as good as Diaz is on the feet, he may be even better on the mat. His sweeps and submissions are ridiculously good, but his poor wrestling base is a giant roadblock, which has stopped him from racking up more tap-out wins.

Diaz has completed just two takedowns in the past five years, leading us to conclude that it’s unlikely that the fight will hit the mat unless McGregor is the instigator again.

For all the ways that Diaz can get his hand raised, I still feel that McGregor is capable of avenging his lone UFC loss if he approaches the challenge correctly.

In a fight that is expected to be contested mostly on the feet, McGregor is the faster, more diverse and powerful striker, with better footwork and even a stronger wrestling base. This is an incredibly close fight to call, but I ever-so-slightly side with the fighting pride of Dublin in the UFC 202 main event.