1987, all told, was a pretty special year. Sega released the Master System, Kylie Minogue hit the charts for the first time, and an Australian managed to make a mobile phone call – so that was on the news.
With New Zealand, we also hosted the inaugural Rugby World Cup. The All Blacks promptly won – so as to maintain balance in the Rugby Universe.
It was also the year a fledgling Roar writer graduated from a twinkle in his father’s eye to a loud, grumpy, crying little brat though that wasn’t until nearly three decades later. A great year indeed.
But, without question, the single most important to that happen in 1987 was the release of action movie director and convicted felon John McTiernan’s greatest masterpiece: Predator.
And while Predator gave us so much, and asked for so little (the cost of a movie ticket in ’87 was $3.90 US) its crown jewel was undoubtedly the philosophies of a baby-faced Arnold Schwarzenegger playing the lead role of Major Alan ‘Dutch’ Schaffer.
It was subtle, thoughtful and provocative. Take how he explained his plan to defeat the mighty Predator to Apollo Creed and that pro-wrestler who later became the Governor of Minnesota. Simple words:
“If it bleeds, we can kill it”
And thinking about that sage advice from the future Governor of California to the future Governor of Minnesota I can’t help but think that it applies to the beast that is the All Blacks.
(Seriously though, can you believe that? Two actors from the movie Predator would go on to become elected Governors of US states. God Bless America.)
**Ahem**
Much like the sport-hunting Predator, New Zealand rugby union teams use strength, cunning and terror to bring their opponents to their knees. They exude such an air of inevitable victory that opponents often lose without ever setting foot on the pitch.
Nowhere has this been more evident than 2016 Super Rugby in 2016. New Zealand dominated to the point of taking four of the top six places in a tournament with participants from five countries. And the media have been a little bit down on our boys as a result.
But rugby is a game where we can learn from the past. What everyone seems to be forgetting is that New Zealand’s weakness today, is the same as it was in 1987 and the same as it was all the way back to 1903. That is, they can only put 15 men on the field.
If New Zealand was permitted, and so inclined, they could easily field two world-class rugby union teams. If they did, those teams would be ranked number one and two in the world.
If they were permitted a third, it would be duking it out with the rest of us further down the world rankings and probably win more often than it lost.
But reality is they can’t do that. They can pick only 23 and only use 15 at any one time. That’s all that matters in a Test match. Man by man, those 23 players. And put quite simply, they just ain’t what they used to be.
Malakai Fekitoa for Conrad Smith. Ryan Crotty for Ma’a Nonu. Beauden Barrett for Dan Carter. And Sam Cane in place of the greatest uncontested player to ever lace up a boot – Ritchie McCaw.
“If it bleeds, we can kill it”
For the past few years, if you compared Australia to New Zealand man-by-man there’s not one position in which we have been better. Not one. The possible exception is Israel Folau and only if you cheat by doing something radical like playing him in his correct position of wing. Even then, he’s a maybe at best.
But consider too not just the reitrements, but the players out through injury or out of form as well. Waisake Naholo for Julian Savea. Nathan Harris for Dane Coles. And no-one-even-close for Sonny Bill-Williams.
“If it bleeds, we can kill it”
And sure Australia just suffered an embarrassing 0–3 loss to England on home soil. But that England. Eddie Jones’ England. They are without a doubt right now the top contender for New Zealand’s number one place in the world rankings.
Having played three world-class Tests against England and lost, bolstered by reinforcements from Europe, the Wallabies will be more hungry than ever. Meanwhile, New Zealand has hardly broken a sweat since besting us in the World Cup final last year.
“If it bleeds, we can kill it”
Since the start of 2011 the All Blacks have, astoundingly, lost only four Test matches and yet against tier one nations have only an average winning margin of 12 and a bit points.
And that’s kind of my point. I dare anyone to make a logical argument that, in a 23-man squad, all of those players I’ve listed aren’t worth 12 and a bit points. That Ma’a Nonu as your inside centre, that Ritchie McCaw as your captain, that Dan Carter as your kicker are not worth 12 and a bit points.
Make no mistake, New Zealand know they’re vulnerable. Extra days landed in Australia for preparation, the way their players are talking, Steve Hansen uncharacteristically getting involved in a sledging match with Australian coach Michael Cheika.
For the first time, in a long time, man by man we’re not looking all that outgunned. We’re hungry, we’re at full strength and we’re at home.
I’m not saying it’ll be easy, or even that it’s a sure thing, but I am saying it’s as good a chance as we’re going to get. And in the spirit of having a punt my fearless prediction is not that it might happen, but that it will happen. Australia will beat the All Blacks this Saturday.
Because it has been 13 bloody long years since we won a Bledisloe, and my god we want it bad. I remember when they won it back from us in ’03 because Paul, a kiwi mate of my Dad’s posted him a saucer after the final Test which came with note “A saucer as a present, because we took all the cups”.
So whether you’re in a pub, or at the game let’s not be that typical Australian rugby crowd – you know, the ones who stroll up from Paddington, wear the wrong colors and refuse to cheer for fear of being uncivilised.
Let’s be like the Argentinian supporters because while they might shine lasers at the players from the crowds at least they give care. Let’s cry in the anthem. And cheer when we’re behind, And sing Waltzing Matilda so loud that we drown out Twickenham because, and I’m being serious now:
“If it bleeds, we can kill it”, which roughly translated means this is the best chance we are ever going get.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
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