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NFL season preview part 2: Playoff hopefuls

LeSean McCoy of the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are not set to achieve much this season. (Keith Allison / Flickr)
Expert
23rd August, 2016
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You just don’t want to be stuck in the middle, the old sporting adage goes, and today, continuing our season preview, we look at the teams bringing up the rear of the NFL’s weighty middle.

Not all mediocrity is created equal though, with some teams in this grouping of eight ascending (Jacksonville) and others very much on their way down (sorry, Jets). And then there are the teams that for years have embodied this tier’s suggestion of averageness – shout out to you, Atlanta.

These teams are competent enough to have not altogether fanciful hopes of making the playoffs. What separates this group from the next two is that those hopes will be just that, and not expectations.

Click here for part 1: the cellar dwellers.

We start with the Windy City and the man I wasn’t named after.

24. Chicago Bears
2015 record: 6-10
2016 prediction: 6-10

Jay Cutler can make every throw you can imagine a quarterback making, and that’s not necessarily a compliment. Violently inconsistent, at his best Cutler looks like Aaron Rodgers. At his worst, he looks like a drunk Christian Ponder.

Cutler has generally had sterling receivers to bail him out (except, ironically, he certainly didn’t in his most successful pro season – his NFC championship game appearance with the Bears in 2011), and Alshon Jeffery will continue to do that. Of he stays healthy highly touted youngster Kevin White will join Jeffery in terrorising opposition secondaries.

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The Bears front seven was fortified through free agency, with a suddenly imposing pass rush and linebacker rotation. The rest of the team, though, will impose itself only on the loss column.

The offensive line is bad, the secondary might be worse, and the running back group is probably the worst of all.

23. Atlanta Falcons
2015 record: 8-8
2016 prediction: 7-9

Once again, the Falcons enter the season needing to figure out how badly they want the world to take them seriously. The Matt Ryan era has been plagued by an odd malaise, which make sense, because the Falcons have long reflected the image of their frustrating, largely unremarkable quarterback.

Ryan is fine. He’s solid. If Joe Flacco can win a Super Bowl, he can too. But even Flacco has a confidence, a self-belief and winning mentality that can take over games, which has always seemed to elude Ryan. Land a haymaker on Ryan early and he doesn’t get up off the mat.

Ryan has no more excuses. His offensive line was already elite, and center, the one weakness on the line, was fortified with the signing of stud Alex Mack from Cleveland. Julio Jones is one of the five best weapons on Earth that a quarterback could ask for, and Devonta Freeman is a dynamic running back.

What Ryan can’t help is the defence, which isn’t going to help him either. Desmond Trufant is a genuine star at quarterback, and Atlanta needs Vic Beasley to join him on that level up front. Beyond those two, though, there’s not much here, and little to suggest that the 22nd ranked defence by DVOA last season is going to take meaningful steps forward.

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Playing the toughest schedule in the league, a patchy defence should be enough to ensure a losing season in Atlanta.

22. Buffalo Bills
2015 record: 8-8
2016 prediction: 7-9

Before the start of last season, Buffalo’s road map to the playoffs was clear: they would have to rely on an excellent defence to carry a sputtering offence. As it turned out, things went the other way, with the attack excelling and the defence sputtering.

The offence, remarkably, was a top ten unit by DVOA last season. The weak spot was on D, a miserable 24th in the league, surprising for a Rex Ryan-led team. With Sammy Watkins continuing to grow into a superstar and a healthier LeSean McCoy, the offence could be even better this season. Unfortunately, there’s no reason outside of blind faith in the voodoo magic of the Ryan brothers to suggest that the defence will improve enough to make it a competent unit.

Injuries to Buffalo’s top two draft picks, Shaq Lawson and Reggie Ragland, two players that were going to be heavily relied upon to inject some dynamism into the team, will compromise the defence, and star Marcell Dareus is suspended for the first four games.

21. Jacksonville Jaguars
2015 record: 5-11
2016 prediction: 7-9

Talk about a renovation! No team re-tooled as comprehensively as Jacksonville did this off-season, who effectively revamped half their starting team. The Jags won the draft by picking up defensive back Jalen Ramsey and linebacker Myles Jack, and they dominated free agency by securing the likes of Malik Jackson, Prince Amukamara and Tashaun Gipson to bolster the defence, while adding Kelvin Beachum and Chris Ivory to make the offence more commanding.

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With an already exciting core led by star receiving duo Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, explosive quarterback Blake Bortles and dynamic pass rusher Dante Fowler, the Jags are loaded for the future.

Much of that future, and the present too, will hinge on whether Bortles’ explosion is self-combustion or not. He made great strides last year, but his play is still riddled with inconsistency and poor decision-making.

With so many new, moving pieces, a total lack of continuity, and the uncertainty regarding Bortles, Jacksonville likely won’t be in the playoff picture this year. But they will be soon, and it feels like only a matter of time before the AFC South is theirs.

20. Washington
2015 record: 9-7
2016 prediction: 7-9

In December 2014 I sat in Giants stadium and watched Odell Beckham Jr lay waste to Washington, a team even more miserable and hopeless than his own. Washington were a lost cause back then, starting a banished Robert Griffin III after Colt McCoy went down injured. Kirk Cousins at that stage was the third string quarterback, his dreadful play having cost him the starter and back-up role on the team.

How quickly things change in the NFL. Washington were one of the season’s biggest surprises last year, riding Cousins and his (possible) delusions of adequacy all the way to the playoffs. Their 2016 season will live and die with the process of figuring out whether what Cousins showed last year was actually a mirage.

We have 11 games of evidence that Cousins is a capable quarterback, and everything else suggesting he’s incompetent. Those 11 games are the most recent though, and that could be a sign of growth, or it could be a prelude to a serious regression.

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The most likely outcome is that Cousins regresses but remains a serviceable starting quarterback. With DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Jordan Reed and a strong offensive line, that should be enough to give Washington an above-average offence.

But even with the addition of lockdown corner Josh Norman, the defence will continue to struggle, with a lowly front seven holding the unit back.

19. New York Jets
2015 record: 10-6
2016 prediction: 8-8

The Jets finished last season ranked ninth in the NFL in DVOA, tied for the game’s eighth best record at 10-6, and in a league where 12 teams make the playoffs, they, of course, missed out. The Jets, ladies and gentlemen, New York’s architects of misery and disappointment.

New York will be solid again this year, but after having one of the easiest schedules in the league last season, they now face the eighth roughest fixture list, so solid likely won’t be good enough.

Even with the receiving tandem of Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, as well as the added weapon of Matt Forte, Ryan Fitzpatrick is bound to regress a little. The offensive line is questionable, and if Fitzpatrick goes down, in comes Geno Smith, which means New York burns in flames.

The defence will be a strength again, legendary against the run with stalwarts Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson laying brick walls on every down. Darrelle Revis will anchor the secondary, but the depth behind him isn’t inspiring.

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The Jets will make teams work for every win, but with a defence that skews more towards ‘very good’ than ‘transcendent’, likely regression for Fitzpatrick, and a tougher schedule, this smells of a .500 team.

18. San Diego Chargers
2015 record: 4-12
2016 prediction: 8-8

The Chargers were a hot mess last year, but much of that came down to injuries and bad luck. San Diego were actually an expected 6-10 team based on their point differential, and with key personnel additions they should be better than that this season.

He’s getting old (34) and remaining angry, but Philip Rivers is still an elite quarterback. With a returning Keenan Allen, the arrival of Travis Benjamin, the ageless Antonio Gates sticking around, and an offensive line reinforced by the signing of Matt Slauson, the Chargers should have a potent passing attack.

The defence has always been the issue, but there’s cause for optimism in 2016. Melvin Ingram, Joey Bosa (once he signs) and Denzel Perryman form an exciting core in the front seven, and they’ll be helped by free agent addition Brandon Mebane from the Seahawks.

Jason Verrett, Brandon Flowers and underrated signing Casey Hayward make for one of the league’s best cornerback rotations, and they’ll be helped by an improved pass rush.

Of course, there’s a reason San Diego lost 12 games last year. The offensive line will still be a liability and the post-Eric Weddle safety depth is a tire fire. But in a division where everyone seems to have pencilled them in for last place, don’t be surprised if the Chargers flaunt with competence, if not contention.

17. New Orleans Saints

2015 record: 7-9
2016 record: 8-8

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It’s rare that a 7-9 season can serve as a testament to an individual’s excellence, but that was the case last year for Drew Brees, who at 36 still managed to lead the Saints into respectability despite the team around him (as well as his own body) falling apart.

37 now, Brees is still an elite quarterback. Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton and Russell Wilson have probably surpassed him, but the argument Brees has for fifth is as strong as anyone’s.

The defence, in an annual NOLA tradition, likely won’t take any pressure off Brees. Defensive end Cameron Jordan is a foundational star who never gets his due, wreaking a havoc obscured by the shortcomings of the rest of his woeful unit. The secondary is fascinating, with Kenny Vacaro and Jairus Byrd loaded with potential, and cornerback Delvin Breaux perhaps a surer bet than either of them.

But the linebacking core is a New York Giants level catastrophe, and it’s hard to imagine anyone outside of Jordan reliably manufacturing pressure on the quarterback. Nick Fairley is the hope, and he’s capable, having registered 11.5 sacks across 2012 and 2013, but just 1.5 total over the past two seasons.

The Saints aren’t a contender, but with Brees, Jordan, a strong offensive line, the exciting Brandin Cooks leading a reinvigorated receiving core, and a secondary ripe with upside, New Orleans could be a surprise entrant into the playoff mix.

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