What are the odds of getting a girl pregnant if you have unprotected sex? What’s the chance from all the people in the world, your parents meeting, living together and having you as a child?
What’s the likelihood of consuming the exact same water molecule more than once in your lifetime?
What probability has Donald Trump of becoming the next US president?
What were the odds again for Leicester winning the EPL title? Wasn’t it 5,000-to-1. Nice collect if you had the courage and belief in your team to take the risk.
British bookmaker William Hill is now giving Donald Trump a 2-to-1, or 33 percent chance of winning the U.S. presidential election in November. They even compare the presumptive nominee’s rise to power as being the same as the Leicester City football team’s amazing race to the EPL title.
Trump has also come a long way in terms of betting odds. In a two-horse race, he was first offered to the public with the longshot odds of 200-to-1 to make it to the White House.
“We’ve paid out on the longest odds ever seen in U.K. sport of 5,000-to-1 on football club Leicester City winning the English Premier League,” betting website William Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe said in a statement. In other words, bettors risked £1 to win £5,000 on the wager. “Now, Donald Trump is a good chance to become our longest ever political odds winner.”
Many years ago Donald Trump once played football for the New York Military Academy High School. He was a handy striker and also excelled at baseball. According to old school mates he was a good athlete, and popular with the girls too.
In 1992, Donald Trump actually made the draw for the English League Cup quarter finals, then called the Rumbelows League Cup. He was entrusted with picking the away teams and in his final pairing pitted eventual champions Leeds United with Manchester United.
“That’s a biggie,” Trump said at the time, in his usual brash, confident tone of voice. “That sounds like the game I wanna go see.”
Recently a Wisconsin high school girls’ football team made up of mostly African-Americans and Latinas have been left traumatised after rival fans repeatedly chanted “Donald Trump, build that wall.”
Their coach Brian Denu said some of his players were so upset by the vile chants, that they had to leave the field of play.
What’s the chance of being in the exact same place somewhere in the world where a terrorist strikes, at the exact same time that they commit a terrorist act?
What’s the odds of the earth moving towards another World War?
In early assessments for this upcoming season’s English Premier League title, rank outsiders Bournemouth are 1500-to-1.
Despite their slow start to the season, you won’t get 5,000 to 1 about Leicester winning the EPL title this season either. Leicester City Football Club aren’t even a bargain at 30-to-1 to retain their title, after so convincingly winning last year’s crown. Who would follow them once again for back-to-back titles?
Is this mad, mad world changing so much in such a hurry that the unlikely now becomes more likely? The unspoken becomes more talked about?
Even Mile Jedinak’s former team Crystal Palace are set to return the princely sum of £1,000 for every £1 invested. All they have to do is win the EPL title. It’s a twenty horse race, so on sheer mathematical probabilities alone, they are well above the odds, aren’t they?
Both the teams from Manchester are firming as the ones to beat with City at 12-to-5 and United at 4-to-1 to win the EPL in 2016-17.
I’m not a gambling man. I hit the remote to change channel every time I see a gambling advertisement on TV. They are so annoying.
Yet Claudio Ranieri made the impossible dream come true. My mother had unprotected sex with my father and here I am drinking the same molecule of water that I drank as a child, watching Donald Trump marching on to Washington.
What are the odds?
Albo
Guest
The problem with that standard assessment of the odds, is your ignoring of the fact that last year's miraculous win was indeed a "once in a lifetime happenstance". They were genuine 5,000 - 1 chances last year until a unique set of circumstances transpired like never before to give them the opportunity to take out the title. Circumstances like the usual top half a dozen teams all had shocking years at the same time, whilst Leicester had a virtual injury free run with a solid combining squad, a striker on fire and liberal dollops of luck in many matches. The odds of all these same circumstances arising again this season , I would say are again 5,000 - 1, or based on the adjusted probability factors that are influenced now by last year, I might adjust that out to 10,000 - 1 for this season. What ever the numbers you want to opt for, it won't matter, things will be back to normal in the EPL this season with the richest clubs once again dominating and fighting out the title.
Joel Furness
Roar Rookie
I reckon that Leicester City should have something like 100-1 to win again, its very remote again but they can do it again.
Cousin Claudio
Roar Guru
Evaporation is a different process to boiling. The first is a surface effect that happens at any time, while the latter is a bulk transformation that only happens when the conditions are correct. You can get water splitting into oxygen and hydrogen atoms but only under special conditions. Technically the water is not turning into a gas, but random movement of the surface molecules allows some of them enough energy to escape from the surface into the air. The rate at which they leave the surface depends on a number of factors - for instance the temperature of both air and water, the humidity of the air, and the size of the water surface exposed. When you see 'steam' after rain: the water is marginally warmer than the air, due to sunshine or heat escaping the surface. The air will be very humid and the water is spread out to expose a very large surface area. Since the air is cooler and almost saturated with water, the molecules of water are almost immediately condensing into micro-droplets in the air and eventually forming rain clouds, which return the water to our streams, waterways and dams. What's the chance of tracking the water molecule?
Cousin Claudio
Roar Guru
Thanks. A well written comment. :)
Cousin Claudio
Roar Guru
Good comment. That's just it, if you saw it as a once in a lifetime happenstance, then its lousy odds, but if you look at it as a champion team defending their title then its good odds compared to the favourites. Chance of it happening again v odds, who knows?
Bob Brown
Roar Guru
Nice read. Would the water molecules evaporate as separate hydrogen and oxygen gas atoms or as whole water molecules as water vapour? Could you consume the same water molecules more than once?
Gavin
Guest
The bookies dont really make odds, they set prices initially (based on "expert" opinion) and adjust accordingly to the money placed on the market. Its set up to basically ensure its long term sustainability. The price changes as the bookmakers liability changes. While its early days, if a lot of people saw excellent value in 30-1, they would soon be a lot shorter.
Howie
Roar Pro
They should really be somkething in the range of 8-10 to 1. Previous winner, not much personnel changes. 30 to 1 is very generaous.
Bob Vincent
Guest
A well written piece :)
Squirrel
Guest
Nil