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This will be the toughest week in the coaching career of Michael Cheika.
Australia still cares about the Bledisloe Cup, despite rarely having it in our possession.
New Zealand cares about the Bledisloe Cup, despite winning it so often you wouldn’t hold it against them for putting it in the category of a community shield.
Which means Cheika’s side can’t repeat the 42-8 result it suffered last week. Neither rugby public will tolerate such a performance two weeks in a row.
All that being true, we enter one of those weird, fuzzy areas of sport now.
When I think of what the Wallabies need, I picture a car propped up in a garage. Wheels off, panels off, seats ripped out, engine block hanging from the hoist, and men tinkering away, looking for every weak spot.
That is how comprehensive the four straight losses have been. It’s a long way back – a full rebuild, not a service, is required.
Across the three losses to England and one to New Zealand, the Wallabies have been beaten physically, in the set piece, tactically, with passion and with composure. They’ve been outplayed by speed, movement, kicking, catching and passing.
In the nine Tests before the World Cup last year, Cheika was able to put the Wallabies through a service and add a few after-market extras. Whatever the reason, in 2015 that was enough.
But cobbling together some repairs on the same machine simply isn’t working this year.
Matt Giteau shouldn’t be required any more, Adam Ashley-Cooper is supposed to be sunning himself and building his superannuation account. Will Genia has been our best for years but having barely played in months, he will back up after going the full 80 minutes on the weekend, because second best is too far back.
Tinkering with Scott Fardy and Ben McCalman isn’t going to change the fact that across the park the Wallabies are now losing the physical battle.
Israel Folau can’t play centre at Test level because he can’t yet defend there. But against New Zealand we were shown that no one is defending well enough – it’s not positional, it’s attitudinal.
Australia lost so convincingly to New Zealand and England it’s safe to say they are on a lower level right now.
But there is evidence to suggest the Wallabies have fallen further behind than that.
Wales pushed New Zealand to the edge in their first June Test, then gave a great showing in the second for 60 minutes before fading in the third Test.
The quality of Wales’ rugby in that series was higher than the current Wallabies outfit can match. The Welsh had width, passion, possession and physicality.
South Africa and Argentina were also willing combatants in their opening Rugby Championship clash. While far from perfect, both played with the aim of putting the ball and players in space.
Against England for 20 minutes in Brisbane, the Wallabies played in such a manner, but it has been absent since.
Even Ireland were able to secure a short-handed victory over the Springboks in South Africa during the June Test series. The odd of the Wallabies toppling the Boks at Loftus Versfeld in just over a month wouldn’t be good.
For a long time we’ve been content to challenge the All Blacks, win occasionally and draw occasionally, but rest on the knowledge we’re the second-best side in the world. If not, then the third.
Some of this is still to play out – and like college football, we have to make some assumptions based on triangles, rather than straight match-ups – but the Wallabies aren’t far from looking up at the All Blacks, England, South Africa, Argentina, Wales and Ireland.
So while the Wallabies desperately need a complete overhaul, the incentive right now for the ARU, Cheika and everyone else involved is to do just enough to return to that status quo – hope against the All Blacks, dominance almost everywhere else.
Can Cheika somehow manage a complete overhaul at the same time as putting the Wallabies through a quick service? That’s what he will need to do this weekend to keep his job, the faith of the Australian rugby public, and the lofty regard of the Bledisloe Cup intact.
This week is the hardest and most important week in his coaching career.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.