Continuing our NFL season preview, today we start in Texas, football’s home state, and end up next to Oracle Arena, basketball’s new Mecca.

These eight teams dance the fine line between ‘playoff teams’ and ‘championship teams’. A failure to make the postseason for any of these squads would make for a disappointing year, but few would be bold enough to consider them firmly in the Super Bowl mix.

If the NFL – and especially the team at number 11 today – has taught us anything, though, it’s that the playoffs are something of a lottery, and if you have a ticket to the tournament your chances of taking home the trophy are greater than logic might dictate.

16. Dallas Cowboys
2015 record: 4-12
2016 prediction: 8-8

And herein lies the rub with writing a four-part season preview a month before the season starts. Originally the Cowboys were 12th in this column and a playoff team. Then news broke that Tony Romo, in Texas’ least favourite annual tradition, will be sidelined for six to ten weeks with a broken bone in his back.

Replacing Romo will be rookie fourth-round pick Dak Prescott. The only other healthy quarterback on the roster is something called a Jameill Showers. Romo is almost certain to miss the first two weeks of the season, crucial divisional clashes against New York and Washington. Brutal match-ups against Cincinnati and at Green Bay also come before the Cowboys’ Week 7 bye.

The good news is that on the field Prescott will be put in the best possible position to succeed. Dez Bryant, assuming health, is a superstar, and all-world running back Ezekiel Elliott is going to be flames incarnate behind the league’s best run-blocking offensive line. Prescott just has to flirt with competence for the offence to remain a strength, although that was a benchmark that eluded all of Romo’s replacements last season.

The defence is not going to give Prescott much margin for error. The secondary, led by perpetual disappointments Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne, is abominable, and the front seven, already suspect, is going to be crippled by the suspensions to Rolando McLain, Randy Gregory and DeMarcus Lawrence. The Cowboys let star defensive end, dreadful human being Greg Hardy go too, which improves their karma at the expense of their pass rush.

If the Cowboys can somehow squeak out a 3-3 record at the bye, a healthy Romo could return to lead them to the playoffs. But given their tough early season schedule, breaking even is likely wishful thinking.

With the most top-heavy team in the league outside of maybe Pittsburgh, Dallas are a team that need more lucky breaks than most to prosper. But for the past two years their breaks have been almost entirely unlucky, most of them suffered by their once star quarterback.

15. Houston Texans
2015 record: 9-7
2016 prediction: 8-8

We don’t know what Brock Osweiler is. We think he’s okay, and Houston thought he was okay enough to give him a four-year, $72 million contract.

Around Osweiler, the Texans are loaded. Lamar Miller is a terrific running back, ready to thrive outside the dysfunction of Miami. DeAndre Hopkins is one of the five best receivers in the league, and Osweiler will have time to throw to him behind a steady offensive line. The defence was eighth in the league by DVOA last season, led by star outside linebacker Whitney Mercilus, reliable cornerback duo Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson, and, yeah, JJ Watt, who might be the greatest defensive player in football history.

If Jadeveon Clowney takes significant steps forward in realising his potential, the Texans could have one of the best defences in the league. But it won’t ultimately matter unless Osweiler delivers, and with seven career starts and 305 total pass attempts, that’s impossible to predict.

14. Baltimore Ravens
2015 record: 5-11
2016 prediction: 9-7

No team in football has a wider gap between its ceiling and basement than Baltimore. Recovery from serious injury is impossible to gauge before you see the players on the field, and that’s why the Ravens are impossible to forecast.

Their season will likely hinge on how four essential players return from season-ending injuries: Joe Flacco, Terrell Suggs, Steve Smith and Breshad Perriman.

If they have any setbacks, or can’t shake the rust off, the Ravens will be close to the team that eked out a 5-11 record in 2015. But if all four are at full strength, the Ravens could resemble the team that almost knocked off New England and made the Super Bowl two seasons ago.

Flacco is more Jay Cutler than his Super Bowl MVP suggests, but he plays with poise and can make every play. Veterans Suggs and Elvis Dumervil will complement young guns CJ Moseley and Timmy Jernigan, in what should be an improved front seven, which will allow a talented secondary led by Jimmy Smith, Ladarius Webb and free agent addition Eric Weddle to thrive.

Marshall Yanda is the cornerstone of a strong offensive line, which will have a pair of damaging running backs behind it in Justin Forsett and touted draft-pick Kenneth Dixon. Mike Wallace is a perfect downfield fit for Flacco’s cannon arm, and if anyone can punch Father Time in the face and frighten it into the corner with obscenities and wide-eyed swagger, it’s Steve Smith.

It could all go wrong for the Ravens, but the reliability of John Harbaugh, the infrastructure of one of the game’s most competently run franchises, and my unending love for ‘The Wire’ skews my prediction towards the optimistic.

13. Indianapolis Colts
2015 record: 8-8
2016 prediction: 9-7 (AFC South champions, fourth seed)

Puns abound about the ill-fortune Indianapolis and their star quarterback suffered last season. Andrew Luck played just seven games, and when he did take the field he was dreadful, throwing interceptions for fun. It’s bad news when 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck represents an upgrade in quarterback play.

But Luck played hurt much of last season and his offensive line was a catastrophe. Let’s not forget, he did throw for 4761 yards and 40 touchdowns in 2014. He’s an elite quarterback, and when healthy he’s one of the five or six players in the game who almost guarantees you a shot at the playoffs by himself.

Luck might have to test that theory out, because not many of his teammates will be helping him get to the postseason. The running back situation is a debacle, there’s no pass-catching depth behind TY Hilton and Donte Moncrief, and there’s very little in the linebacking core or at safety.

But the Colts still have Luck, and they’ll be able to put him behind what should be a much more solid offensive line. Vontae Davis and Patrick Robinson are a strong cornerback tandem, and the defensive line is filled with promise.

Last year the Colts were everyone’s trendy Super Bowl pick and they got their behinds kicked by a male horse. This year expectations are much lower, with people focusing on a rising Jacksonville and a more rounded Houston in the AFC South. But in those crunch divisional games, the Jags and Texans are going to be trotting out Blake Bortles and Brock Osweiler, while the Colts have Andrew Luck.

That reality is enough to make Indianapolis favourites in the NFL’s perpetually weakest division.

12. Minnesota Vikings
2015 record: 10-6
2016 prediction: 9-7 (Wild card, sixth seed)

The Vikings have one of the most complete, well-rounded rosters in the NFL. There’s no obvious weakness outside of receiver, with excellence everywhere on defence, and plenty of promise on offence around Viking legend Adrian Peterson.

The place where uncertainty lingers most, though, is the place that counts the most.

Teddy Bridgewater might be more Tarvaris Jackson than Russell Wilson. Towards the end of his rookie year he looked like the latter, but he spent much of 2015 looking like the former. Bridgewater threw just 14 touchdowns last year, and after Week 6 he broke the 200-yard passing mark just three times.

Much of that is due to how heavily the Vikings lean on Peterson, as well as a lack of proven receiving options, but if Minnesota are to take the next step they need Bridgewater to be more dynamic.

The defence is young and building, led by a stellar defensive line and terrific secondary commanded by superstar Harrison Smith. After finishing 14th in DVOA last season, the defence will surely vault into the top ten this time around.

The questions come on offence. Peterson is 31 and past his transcendent prime, the offensive line has a few questions, and wide receiver has even more. But there’s enough talent for a unit that can reliably put up points – Bridgewater just needs to put it in the best place to succeed.

11. New York Giants
2015 record: 6-10
2016 prediction: 9-7 (NFC East champions, fourth seed)

Professional sport’s ultimate boom-or-bust team, the Giants have two Super Bowls in the past ten years (one more than anyone else), and have been to the playoffs just once in the past seven seasons. In the past, though, when the Giants weren’t winning titles, they were still teasing us with potential, posting winning records in 2008, 2010 and 2012 that didn’t lead to any playoff success.

Potential has been thrown out the window the past three years, though, replaced by an obsession with abject mediocrity. Three consecutive third-place finishes in the division and three losing seasons later, the Giants finally seem set to return to meaningful competitiveness, and the vague outside realm of contention where they feel most comfortable and loom most dangerous.

The 30th ranked defence by DVOA last year has been totally revamped. General manager Jerry Reese went on a spending spree in the offseason, adding star defensive end Oliver Vernon, human-wall defensive tackle Damon Harrison, and a shiny new cornerback in Janoris Jenkins.

Vernon and Harrison will join incumbents Jonathan Hankins and a club-less Jason Pierre-Paul in forming what could be one of the most versatile, effective defensive lines in football. Jenkins is a gambler, but he’s a fine number two corner behind Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Safety and linebacker are a total catastrophe, as they always seem to be with this team, but the upgrades elsewhere should make this a competent defence.

If the Giants want to make a run they’ll need the offence to be special, with steady hand Eli Manning feeding the freak, heavenly hands of Odell Beckham Jr The offensive line should be better, running back is fine if uninspiring, and draftee Sterling Shephard and the returning Victor Cruz give the receiving depth after OBJ some upside.

This Giants team has holes, real holes, but they had them in 2007 and 2011 too. The lack of depth and inimitable talent beyond Beckham make a run all the way to glory highly unlikely, but with their upgrades, the league’s second easiest schedule and Romo’s injury crippling rivals Dallas, New York should be firmly in the playoff mix all season long.

10. Kansas City
2015 record: 11-5
2016 prediction: 9-7

I guess sometimes you need to lose your best player to turn around your season and go on an 11-game winning streak.

When Jamaal Charles tore his ACL in Week 5 against Chicago last year the Chiefs train pulled into the station two stops beyond ‘Done’. They were 1-4, which would become 1-5 the week after, a death sentence in the NFL.

But then Andy Reid ate that sentence.

The Chiefs reeled off ten straight wins to make the playoffs and then routed the Texans in the Wild Card round before making the Patriots perspire. They finished the year with the sixth-best offence, sixth-best defence and seventh-best special teams by DVOA – all-round excellence.

Kansas City benefited from a cupcake schedule last season though, and they lost key contributors in the off-season in cornerback Sean Smith and a pair of starting offensive linemen. A strange, vaguely reported knee injury has put star defensive end Justin Houston on the sidelines, and his season is shrouded in (but hopefully not shredded by) doubt.

The defence will still be rock solid, led by a special defensive line, and the offence will be efficient. The Chiefs have long been above average under Andy Reid though, and a leap into the truly elite has eluded them. If that’s going to happen this year it’s likely going to depend on the recovering knees of Charles and Houston.

9. Oakland Raiders
2015 record: 7-9
2016 prediction: 10-6 (Wild card, sixth seed)

What is this frightening new world where the Raiders are good?

Since getting blown out in the Super Bowl following the 2002 season, Oakland haven’t had a winning season. Those 13 seasons have known all different sorts of bad – everything from gloriously, laughably JaMarcus Russell bad, to the mere mediocrity of Jason Campbell bad. Now, finally, there is hope in Oakland next door to Stephen Curry.

The Raiders are loaded, everywhere. The defence is an absolute monster, led by all-world superstar Khalil Mack, who is in that special group of Von Miller and Aaron Donald quarterback-eaters, one step behind JJ Watt. The secondary, with stud cornerback addition Sean Smith from divisional rival Kansas City, is excellent, and the front seven even beyond Mack has frightening potential. The Raiders defence ranked 15th in DVOA last season, but this could be a top-five unit in 2016.

The offence brings more questions, but most of the answers are promising. Derek Carr is the future but he’s the present too, and will look to build on a terrific sophomore year where he had a 32-13 touchdown-interception split. Amari Cooper is a beast and a foundational weapon on offence. The offensive line, reinforced with the magnificent Kelechi Osemeli, features no weak spots and could be the best in the league.

The Raiders improved from three wins to seven in Carr’s first two seasons, and they have the talent to make another four-win leap this season. They’re probably not quite a contender given how heavily they’re going to rely on Carr and Cooper on offence, a young duo who likely aren’t quite ready to lead a team to the Super Bowl, but this should be a playoff team, and a force for years to come.