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Can the Hawks get the upper edge around the contest? How will the Swans ruck duo hold up? Will Geelong’s B-grade players step up?
Those are just some of the burning questions heading into the AFL finals series, and with the bye week, it gives the eight sides time to weed out any deficiencies in their game.
What is the biggest question each team must answer before the finals begin, though?
Sydney – Can the Kurt Tippett/Sam Naismith ruck duo work?
Tippett was enjoying an All-Australian season in the ruck before his hamstring injury, which gave Naismith a chance to prove himself, an opportunity he took with both hands.
Naismith’s terrific ruck work has allowed the Swans’ midfielders to get first use at the football, which is important considering Sydney has Josh Kennedy in the middle, one of the AFL’s clearance kings.
Since Naismith has come into the team, the Swans have been first in the competition for points from clearances, boosting a huge +29 differential on their opposition.
In the two games Tippett and Naismith have played together since the latter returned from injury, though, both have seen their numbers drop, which presents a question whether they can co-exist in the finals.
Tippett and Naismith’s best work is done in the ruck, with neither providing much around the ground.
Tippett can play as a forward, but he hasn’t has many reps with Lance Franklin this year; so slotting him there in a finals game is a risk. Meanwhile, Naismith has yet to prove he can be effective around the ground.
The Swans can’t afford to drop either Tippett or Naismith, but playing them together limits both their abilities.
Geelong – Will the ‘rest’ show up?
Geelong’s best 22 looks settled entering the finals, but that doesn’t mean the inconsistent ways of their B-graders will automatically disappear.
The quartet of Mark Blicavs, Cameron Guthrie, Mitch Duncan and Steven Motlop hold the key.
In wins, that foursome is averaging 21.7 disposals, with each adding their own unique skills to the Cats’ attack. Motlop can be proficient in the forward line when he is on; Blicavs provides versatility around the ground, while Duncan and Guthrie provide class through the midfield.
In losses, however, that disposal average drops to 18.7, while the quartet’s goal and tackle numbers also take a hit.
Geelong needs to find a way to get Blicavs, Guthrie, Duncan and Motlop involved early and often, or else too much heavy lifting will be left to Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood.
Hawthorn – Can they do enough around the contest to win?
The Hawks are once again in the top four, but they won’t do much damage unless they clean up their poor rankings in and around the contest.
Hawthorn ended the home-and-away season ranked 18th in contested possession differential, 17th in contested possessions, 16th in clearance differential, 10th in clearances and 11th in centre clearances.
The Hawks struggle to generate scores from clearances, while top-four counterparts Sydney and GWS dominate in that area.
On the other side of the ball, the Hawks also have trouble stopping the opposition creating scoring chains from clearances. Melbourne destroyed Hawthorn in that area in round 20, while Collingwood also exposed the Hawks’ area of weakness in round 23.
Now with number one ruck man Jonathon Ceglar out injured, the Hawks’ clearance work is set to take another hit.
Hawthorn are still one of the benchmark sides when it comes to capitalising off turnovers, but if they wish to four-peat, they need to get better around the ball.
GWS – Will the kids fold under the bright lights?
The Giants don’t have one glaring weakness on the field. The midfield bats deep, they have a potent forward line and the run and daring backline creates for the best ball movement team in the competition.
However, questions still linger about how GWS’s youngsters will play under finals pressure.
The Giants’ list is the second youngest in the competition. Those aren’t just rookies making up the squad either, as the likes of Dylan Shiel, Devon Smith, Nick Haynes, Zac Williams, Toby Greene and Stephen Coniglio are key cogs in the GWS machine.
Pressure can make diamonds, but it can also create nerves, negatively affecting the decision-making and skill levels of the young Giants.
While the veteran core of Steve Johnson, Heath Shaw and Ryan Griffin will help, how the GWS youngsters will perform under the bright lights of the finals is an unknown.
Adelaide – Can the midfield do enough?
Adelaide’s Round 23 loss to West Coast, a game which Rory Sloane missed due to suspension, exposed the Crows’ greatest weakness. With no Sloane, Adelaide lost the disposal count by 56, the contested possession count by 24 and the top four ball winners on the ground were Eagles.
The opposition now has a formidable blueprint to put in play against Adelaide – limit Sloane’s impact, and the rest of the Crows’ midfield will struggle.
The Crouch brothers, Brad and Matt, Scott Thompson and Richard Douglas are left to pull the weight if the opposition shuts down Sloane. Those four players are great complementary players to Sloane, but don’t do enough to cover his combination of pressure, tackling and score involvements.
Stop Sloane, and you may just stop the Crows.
West Coast Eagles – Can Jonathan Giles cover Nic Naitanui’s absence?
In West Coast’s Round 23 win over Adelaide, and their first outing since Naitanui’s ACL injury, Giles was proficient, finishing with 15 disposals, 29 hit outs and a goal.
This is what the Eagles need from Giles in the finals.
West Coast’s game plan consists of winning the clearance, then locking the ball in their forward half to create a score. In rounds 13-19, where Naitanui was hurt, the Eagles’ game plan was shot, as they ranked 18th for clearance differential, 15th for contested possession differential and 13th for time in forward half differential.
If Giles can at least break even in the ruck, it should be enough for the midfielders to win the ball out of the middle and set-up from there.
While Giles won’t be able to match Naitanui’s dexterity around the ground, he doesn’t need to. If Giles can ruck efficiently and be a presence, West Coast may posses the best team to win the flag from outside the top four.
Western Bulldogs – Will a Jake Stringer call-up help the scoring woes?
As fierce and tough as the Dogs are, if they fail to kick a winning score in the finals, another first-round exit looms.
The Bulldogs averaged just 84.4 points this season, well off the 100-point mark considered to be the premiership ready rate. Furthermore, the Dogs have scored 100 points or more in just six games and have an inside 50 efficiency percentage of just 47 per cent, which is below league average.
If the Bulldogs have any hope of fixing this issue in September, they must recall Stringer.
Not only has Stringer’s VFL form justified a selection into the senior squad, as he averaged 22 disposals and 6.5 tackles in the reserves, but he gives the Dogs a target and threat inside the 50. At his best, Stringer can win a game of his own boot, a trait that is amplified in the finals.
Stringer may not fully fix the Dogs scoring issues, but he gives them the best opportunity to lessen the blow.
North Melbourne – Will the decision on veterans rejuvenate or diminish players’ excitement?
The sacking of Brent Harvey, Drew Petrie, Nick Dal Santo and Michael Firrito angered Roos fans and what impact it’ll have on the players will be clear come finals.
It’ll either rejuvenate the Kangaroos to give their heroes one final crack at a flag, increasing their energy come game days.
Conversely, the decision has the potential to completely shatter the group, diminishing game day skill and excitement levels.
In their Round 23 loss to the Giants, the Roos were pumped-up to start, but were slowly outclassed and outplayed by the superior GWS side. If that happens in the finals, expect an early exit for North, and their champions.
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