Rafa may be out, but he's not down

In a match that broke the hearts of Spanish fans across the globe, 14-time grand slam champion Rafael Nadal was beaten in a five set thriller in the fourth round of the US Open.

The giant-slayer was 22-year-old world No.25 Lucas Pouille; a fiery Frenchman with a laser-sharp, all court game, a big serve, and no fear.

The usual prophets of doom are out in droves. Many are again questioning his mental strength and capacity to win on the big stages. The true vultures are gleefully implying the pressure of grand slams is just too much for him.

However, the aspect of Nadal’s game suffering the most scrutiny is his legendary forehand. Every little miss is being treated as a catastrophe, rather than a blip. But in order to form a proper assessment of the situation, you have to look at the facts.

Perhaps the most obvious and oft-overlooked fact is this; Rafael Nadal has been competing for only one month after a ten-week timeout with a left wrist injury. That is, the wrist responsible for the huge power and pinpoint accuracy we know and love about his most feared ground stroke.

He has said multiple times that although it’s not getting worse, it still pains him when he hits the ball. Of course he is going to miss a couple of shots. It would be odd if he didn’t. It’s hardly cause for prophesying his downfall.

A second very obvious fact is he has played a grand total of eight (best of three) singles matches between his withdrawal from the French Open on May 27th, and his first match at the US Open on August 29th.

Prior to the Olympics, he had only 12 days of training, almost half of which involved only light hitting, and only for an hour at a time. While it’s easy to forget, he is still very much returning off the back of a rather nasty injury. And the wrist of the hitting hand is arguably the most unfortunate injury a tennis player can suffer.

Now let’s look what he accomplished at the US Open. Having not played grand slam matches since the French Open, Rafa dropped only 20 games on the way to the round of 16; the least he has ever dropped in the first three rounds of the tournament.

As for the fourth round, he battled to the very last ball in an epic five setter, playing some extraordinary tennis in the process. He went above and beyond what we could expect from anyone recovering from nearly three months off the tour.

Now we’ve established just how remarkable Rafa’s return has actually been under the circumstances, let’s look at his opponent. Lucas Pouille isn’t some novice fresh out of the juniors nobody has ever heard of.

He is a firecracker of a player, who has risen 83 places in the rankings since the 2015 Monte Carlo Masters (when Nadal played him last). With his fourth round win, he has now had four top ten victories throughout 2016, including twice against stoic Spaniard David Ferrer and once over fellow Frenchman Richard Gasquet.

After Pouille’s victory over the then 10th ranked Gasquet in Monte Carlo 2016, Gasquet himself said he was, “very sure [Pouille] will become the No.1 in France very soon.” Pouille was ranked world No.82 at the time. Just one month later he was seeded at the French Open, after reaching the semi-finals of the Rome Masters. He then made the quarter-finals of Wimbledon, and has now won three five set matches in a row at the US Open to make the quarter-finals again.

Pouille can run with the best of them, and played far above his ranking against Nadal that night. But as it was, he still only managed to beat the Spaniard by the skin of his teeth. Even a Rafa marred by an injury layoff was still an almost unbreakable barrier for a fully fit, wholly confident 22-year-old with nothing to lose but the match.

Considering Rafa missed two grand slams in a row, and that there was a possibility he would not recover in time to play the US Open, it’s mighty impressive he made the second week. Let alone in such convincing, emphatic fashion.

Although the loss is disappointing, it should also be encouraging. As Nadal put it in his post-match press conference, “I know what’s going on. I know what I have to do. It is just a couple of things that for some reason didn’t happen. You need to be ready to be self-critical. It is something I believe [is] really going to change.”

And change it he shall. If Rafael Nadal has proven nothing else during his glittering career, it’s that those who write him off will always look foolish in the end.