Tipping may be a mug’s game, but there’s never been a more exciting time to be wrong about football.
Prior to the first week of the finals I tipped Geelong by five points and Adelaide by 58 points. Not too shabby, but my other two tips were wildly inaccurate.
And thank heavens my strike rate was only 50% and not 100. The win by the Western Bulldogs was contextually one of the most impressive performances I have ever seen.
During the week, Luke Beveridge had looked like the misfortunes that plagued his charges had taken their toll. If he was quietly confident, the emphasis was on the quiet.
The gap in form of the Eagles and the Dogs going into the game was matched only by the chasm between their records at Subiaco Oval. And yet, Bevo’s Bulldogs remembered ’89 and took the hapless Eagles to the cleaners.
Even when the score was 2.0 to West Coast and 0.3 to the visitors, the writing was on the wall. Footscray’s tackling, chasing and smothering in the opening few minutes showed they wouldn’t let the Eagles have one easy possession, one pressure-free moment.
If you want more detail about what makes the Dogs tick, here’s something I prepared earlier.
To update – the Bulldogs’ ability to move the ball, to win the hard ball, and to squeeze opposition forward lines is equal to the best in the business.
Hawthorn’s loss to Geelong was agonisingly narrow, but let’s get one thing straight here – the Cats were off the boil for portions of the game. As I have previously posited, the closeness of the competition – particularly among the top teams – is so intense that short lapses can prove very costly. Geelong had a couple of serious lapses against the Hawks, but were able to strike back decisively and hold their nerve for the win.
In short, it was not one of Geelong’s best performances – but it was enough to beat the Hawks in a pressure cooker. This says plenty about where both teams are heading at the moment. On form, the Hawks are cactus. Bulldogs by 19 points.
When Bevo’s Bulldogs euthanise Hawthorn, they will book a date with Greater Western Sydney in the land of the Giants. Long shot? So were the English-Welsh odds at Agincourt, but like Henry V, Bevo has inspired an almost fanatical level of devotion from his players.
The Swans are in strife. Stunned by the magnitude of the loss to GWS and reeling from the injuries to Kurt Tippett and Callum Mills, Sydney will struggle to beat Adelaide – even at their postage stamp home ground.
Finals mean pressure, and pressure means stoppages. Without Tippett around, big Crow Sam Jacobs will cause mayhem. The Crows should march into the prelim against Geelong. Adelaide by 22.
Adelaide have not beaten Geelong in Victoria since 2003. Of course, the intervening Vic games have been played at Kardinia Park and not the MCG, but the Cats play the G fairly well.
Henry Ford said history is bunk, but he was a complete prat and he also believed in anti-Semitic conspiracy theories. History is not bunk, no more than jazz was a plot to destroy America.
What we know about the history between Geelong and Adelaide is that the Crows have lost their last four to the Cats, including at Adelaide Oval this year.
Geelong’s big defenders seem to be a good fit for the Crows’ forwards. Eddie Betts may be a genius, but if supply is reduced by midfield pressure (see: Selwood, Selwood, Guthrie and Dangerfield) and Betts is the only Crow able to hit the board – they won’t score enough to win.
And so, despite having hitherto anticipated otherwise, I hold that the Western Bulldogs will face Geelong in the grand final. After that, anything is possible.
What a time to be alive!
Seano
Guest
A bit hard on Henry Ford! Without him none of us would be typing about football or watching football on our mass produced devices!! As for your tips, no chance. Hawks and swans will both win.
I hate pies
Guest
It's a bit rich isn't it Dougie. How many times do these blokes have to whack someone before they're rubbed out? If I was playing on them this week I would whack them in the guts at every opportunity, just below the "threshold" of getting rubbed out. I'd make sure I kept doing it in the same spot too.
Pete
Guest
Very true Dougie. And the Dogs are a team on the rise while the Hawks are on the decline. Is this the game where the Dogs confirm that they have overtaken the Hawks? I'm loathe to predict that will happen based on just last weeks performance. How have the players that came back from injury pulled up ? It could be that they may not recover as quickly and not play to the same level as last week. Hawks still seem a safer bet that's all.
Tim Holt
Roar Guru
+1 Dougie- Very disappointing Burgoyne taking that line. You cop it sweet and deal with it on the field, keeping in mind we might not mangle players by tagging but we are very willing to leave a knee in here and there when the opportunity arises.
Pumping Dougie
Guest
Seriously, how pathetic is it that Burgoyne is sooking about the Selwoods scragging Mitchell and yet serial thugs Hodge and Lewis are exonerated by the MRP this afternoon for striking Selwood, curiously deemed "insufficient force". Geez Stevie J would love the leniency Hodge and Lewis keep getting when finals are on the line. The absolute gall of Burgoyne to whinge and moan.
Pumping Dougie
Guest
Matty I can't see Moz doing it. He's uncompromising and tough, but too ball focused and a gentleman. I agree with you about Smith though.
Pumping Dougie
Guest
* Classy champ, meaning Shaun "whinge" Burgoyne.
Pumping Dougie
Guest
Pete, we haven't had this team at our disposal since round 3 - and we're still minus Wallis (as well as Murphy and Crameri). My point being that the last 20 weeks hasn't necessarily been indicative of what we're capable of, when we have only 3 of our best 22 missing. Hawks are favorites this week, but we're in with a genuine chance if you base it purely on capability.
Pumping Dougie
Guest
Suckling will help them be prepared for the bullying stuff. Earlier this year he said that every single Big Game, Clarko would select an opposition player and instruct his team to target them physically. Clarko took joy in the element of intimidatory surprise, but I'm sure he'll pick Daniel, who will definitely be up to the challenge mentally. Your suggestion of unsettling Stringer is a good one - particularly if they go after his shoulder early.
GJ
Guest
mattyb
Guest
Dougie,Libba or Clay could do it. Moz might not put on the tough guy bavado show like Hodge but he could do it. Moz would sit Hodge down as quick as Terry Daniher did Gavin Brown if he so chose to. I think people are going to be presently surprised how we will equate ourselves when Hawthorn go up the the family club/unsociable path.
Pumping Dougie
Guest
Maybe we can bring back Will Minson to do the job and tell him we'll extend his contract if he succeeds. ?
Pumping Dougie
Guest
They'll go after Daniel to free-up Mitchell. And maybe Hunter and Dunkley to try and rattle them. It would be a waste of time to go after Libber or Bont or Dahlhaus. Geez it would be nice if somebody took Hodge out of the game early! Would be good to seize the initiative (I always felt the best form of defense was pre-emptive attack - everybody knows what the Hawks will try to serve-up). Can't see anybody in our lineup capable of that though. T. Boyd would certainly enhance his reputation if he did.
Pumping Dougie
Guest
Tim I agree Gison needs to be tagged and I agree with mattyb that Cordy will perform this role. Picken might be used on Burgoyne, although I wouldn't mind him 'distracting' Hodge. Daniel will go to Mitchell. Morris or Hambling to Gunston. Libber to Lewis. Bont, Hunter, Dunkley and Dahlhaus to get off the leash. Disappointing to hear a classy champ say today "I don't want to whinge and moan", before proceeding to whinge and moan (saying the umps need to pay free kicks to Mitchell if the Doggies attempt what the Selwood brothers did successfully last weekend). He should leave this kind of moaning and pressuring of the umps to his coach, who already has that reputation. I hope the AFL fine him to teach him a lesson.
Cam
Guest
I agree JohnDee. Seems like the top eight are a very even bunch which should lead to a fascinating finals series. There are no clear cut favourites heading into the semi finals.
Pete
Guest
That's very true. Still I'm not convinced of the Dogs consistency, they've only played one good game in a row, and would have to continue to play better than they have all season to go further.
JohnDee
Guest
Seems to happen every year doesn't it? The EF winners come into the SF looking like gold, up against the losers of the QFs who everyone has counted out because they've just suffered a loss. However my guess is in previous years there was a much larger disparity between the top 4 and the bottom 4. It's been well documented just how close this years' comp is, so I wouldn't be surprised if this is the year the winners of the EF do some real damage, if both the Dogs and the Crows got up I don't think many would be totally shocked by the result.
mattyb
Guest
It will be interesting which players Hodge,Mitchell and Lewis might go after (cant say Lewis will be much of a worry,he's a bit of a poor man's tough guy) Bontempelli might be an obvious candidate but I can see that backfiring if the older Hawthorn players fail to match his football also. I'd think Dahl,Libba, Picken etc will be a waste of time as they are tough footballers and a better plan would be to overore them with good football. Daniel might be an easy target as he is creative and small. Hunter and Biggs often start and set up a lot of the Dogs play an can be susceptible to turning the ball over if they were roughed up,this could be a better option. Personally I'd go the West Indies cricket model and attack the big fish like Morris and M.Boyd and then hope the others fall around them. While these players are fair they are extremely tough,hard at the contest and always bouncing back up. Might be harder to intimidate these warriors but if Hawthorn are as tough as they think the rewards from this option would be the greatest. Like I think we all agree on,Hawthorn will try the unsociable approach somewhere along the line and it will certainly be a fascinating part of what should be a classic game. One thing I do think though is if it doesn't work,whoever they choose to target, Hawthorn are going to be left looking like the old and tired boxer coming up against the future champ. Hawthorn have been terrific at reinventing themselves across this journey so their approach will be a crucial one in my eyes.
Pete
Guest
Too many times have I seen impressive elimination final winners bomb out the following week when they face a better team. Hawks experience will probably get them over the Dogs.
JohnDee
Guest
All good, had lost me there for a second! You're right about Hodge, when you give away a goal via an undisciplined 50m penalty and your team loses by 2 points, it's hard to argue that it didn't backfire. I personally think It will be a huge focus again in the Dogs game, and I wouldn't be surprised if Hawks begin with Hodge, Lewis and Mitchell for the first centre bounce to ensure their 3 primary enforces are right amongst it from the get-go. I'm in no way saying the Dogs definitely can't handle the physicality; however the Hawks are the masters of intimidation and will be trying to throw the young dogs off of their game. This will be the biggest game most of these Dogs have played in, for the Hawks this is just another Final.