By the numbers: Is the Verstappen experiment a failure?

Taken at face value the decision to drop Daniil Kvyat and promoting Max Verstappen in the senior Red Bull team was a masterstroke, with the added bonus of bringing tens of thousands of Dutch nationals to the recent Belgian Grand Prix.

But apart from a flukey victory in his first race, has the move really paid off?

Here’s the case both for and against so that you can make up your own mind…

Lies, damn lies and statistics
Verstappen has attracted his fair share of criticism for his questionable defensive moves in recent times, although it’s worth remembering that Kvyat had multiple issues with the Ferraris – sometimes in a single race.

The pro-Kvyat camp however has hard numbers on it’s side. Boffins on the incredibly popular Reddit forums have crunched the numbers, and like most data sets you can make them say anything you want.

Still, for what it’s worth, here’s how both drivers stack up compared to teammate Daniel Ricciardo. In races where both cars finished, Kvyat pushed Ricciardo to an almost 50/50 split with the results falling 8-9 in Daniel’s favour, while Verstappen is trailing 4-6 in the head to head.

Ricciardo’s class in qualifying truly shines, but again Kvyat performed slightly better than Verstappen taking Saturday honours 30 per cent of the time compared to Max’s 20 per cent.

When it comes to percentage of points scored by comparison to their Red Bull teammate there’s barely anything splitting the two, however once again Kvyat claiming the upper hand scoring 90.6 per cent of his partner’s total (116 points versus 128 for Ricciardo) while Verstappen has a respectable 86.4 per cent comparative scoring rate (108 points versus 125 for Ricciardo).

So on paper, if nowhere else, it appears that either Kvyat wasn’t too shabby after all or Verstappen has severely underperformed since arriving at the Paris end of the pitlane.

You’ll go mad trying to establish a hierachy of dominance within Red Bull and Toro Rosso at the moment. Carlos Sainz held his own against Verstappen when they were teammates, but just as Ricciardo has a clear advantage over Verstappen, Sainz has convincingly dominated Kvyat who seems so depressed that he’s very likely lost the will to dress or feed himself, let alone race a Formula Onecar.

It’s also worth remembering, and if you read this column regularly you’ll notice I take every opportunity to point it out, Kvyat finished ahead of Ricciardo last season mostly because Red Bull were testing improvements for this year’s package and needed the known quantity and sure hand of Ricciardo for data integrity.

There’s also two primary stats that count against Kvyat.

Firstly, Verstappen has achieved the only thing Red Bull seems that value: records. As the youngest driver to win an Formula One race he’s clearly on his way.

More importantly, apart from a few wayward races (don’t mention Monaco) and doubtful defending moves, Verstappen has delivered consistently while also pushing Ricciardo harder than Kvyat ever could. Although Ricciardo has largely kept Verstappen in check, as a pair they have shepherded Red Bull into second in the constructors’ championship, which is as good as they non-Mercedes runners can hope for this year.

So perhaps Red Bull reserve driver Pierre Gasly mispoke when he said he’d be sitting in Kvyat’s seat for Singapore, or that he’d be testing the car in Practice 1, or some other bizzaro third option remains to be seen. Either way, on form you’d have to suggest that Kvyat’s Formula One career is as good as finished.

With Felipe Massa confirming that he’s leaving Formula 1, I’d be stunned if Kvyat landed the drive at Williams – even though I claimed earlier this year that it would be the most logical move for both parties.

For what it’s worth, I maintain that it was a good idea at the time. I can show you the data to prove it.