Saturday was all about Winx in the George Main Stakes (1600m) at Randwick, and she didn’t let the punters and the decent crowd trackside down with another commanding performance.
She had the back of Hauraki all the way and was always holding that horse at bay very easily.
But I will say this now…I am going to take on Winx in the Cox Plate.
I am not going to argue the fact she is a champion. She is. But I have major concerns about her running a strong 2040m. Let’s not beat around the bush. The Cox Plate last year was handed to her on a platter and she was good enough to take it and spank them.
But that won’t happen in 2016, and she will take on a much stronger field, with more depth, and let’s not discount the potential of three year olds, who will get a decent weight pull on her.
$2.10 to win one of the hardest 2000m races in the world? No, thank you. I agree she’ll be hard to beat, but I wouldn’t be declaring her like some people are.
Back to the George Main, and Hauraki was super in running second. He made Winx stretch just that little bit, and he’ll take some beating in whatever he contests. That’s about all you can say for the race.
The other Randwick race I want to look at is the Shorts (1100m), won in determined fashion by Takedown. Trainer Gary Moore said pre race that the horse was screwed down to win fresh and after hard riding from Tim Clark, he eventually wore down Ball Of Muscle to get the job done. Kaepernick was the eye closer late to run a close up third, just ahead of Dothraki, who was given every chance by just couldn’t quite finish it off.
The obvious flop was the even money pop English. I’ll concede she didn’t get the cart up into the race, but her finish was weak, especially for a mare that was backed as if unbeatable and has been touted as the up and comer to challenge Chautauqua. Based on this, I think dodging Chautauqua would be wise.
The feature race at Caulfield was the Naturalism Stakes (2000m). Jameka was already assured a start in the race, but she stamped her credentials furthermore with an outstanding win in the race, aided by a ballsy ride from Nick Hall, who cut back to the inside, where no jockey was game to head, but she loved it and ended up demolishing her rivals to say to the racing world she is a live Caulfield Cup threat.
Sydney Cup winner Gallante was first up and he was outstanding in defeat. Sat on speed all the way and just wouldn’t turn it up. I underestimated him and I certainly wouldn’t discount in whatever he contests. The third placegetter Berisha trialled well last Friday at Cranbourne and backed that trial up with arguably the best run of the race. I am not a fan of the Mornington Cup winner getting a free ride into the Caulfield Cup, and while he won’t win the race, I think his effort here warrants his start.
Set Square took off a fair way out from home and she was really solid in fourth, but she was the one of the Ciaron Maher pair that needed to win. Her Caulfield Cup start hangs in the balance. The other eye catcher was Observational, who was closing off very nicely late between runners. A race like the Geelong Cup could be an ideal target.
The other two highlights for me were the dominant wins of Hartnell in the Hill Stakes (2000m) and He’s Our Rokkii in the second last at Caulfield. Hartnell looks spot on for the Caulfield Cup and I can see why he is near the top of the betting for that race. He’s Our Rokkii looks the perfect candidate for the Toorak/Crystal Mile/Emirates path. Not sure he’ll trouble Winx in the Cox Plate, but he has returned in fab order.
Swanny
Guest
Winx looks a good thing. But the cox plate is won by 3 yo every few years .. Octagonal beat the champion mahogany. So you think won as a 3 yo. Graeme Rogerson 3 yo won it too I think a 3 yo won the cox plate just 3 years ago , correct me if I'm wrong
Adam Page
Roar Guru
Several class records were broken that day, including two track records, so the whole idea of the track record being an indicator is rubbish IMO. There are plenty of ticks for her, not disputing that. She is a deserved favourite, but even money is the issue I have. She is nowhere near a good thing in the race. Last year she was somewhat under the guard of most. In 2016 she will be the hunted and every jockey will have eyes on her and how to stop her.
andrew
Guest
find it odd can rouse debate about ability of horse run 2040 when it holds the track record for such a distance. i would have thought being a track record holder is about the most conclusive evidence one can reveal about the ability of a horse to run fast over a certain distance. not knocking the point of the article to suggest winx is a bit unders at present for an all-in market, but that line of rationale had me choking on my cornflakes.
George
Guest
Winx is a world class miler who like all the really good milers can stretch to a mile and a quarter. There is nothing in this country that I would back to beat her and I think we tend to over estimate these 2nd and 3rd tier European horses that show up in the Spring. They're not that good! Winx has won the two big Randwick mile handicaps and showed her toughness and versatility in doing so.The Doncaster was her best performance. The Cox Plate the toughest race in the country to win? I don't think so. It's been won by a three year old maiden and some pretty ordinary horses over the years. The track it's run on ensures you need luck to win it and Winx got that last year. With even luck this year she'll win it again. $13 dollars for a horse like Palentino is massive unders IMO. Should be $130 to beat a horse like Winx.
Razzar
Guest
Setting boundarys about a runners price, will keep us in the game longer, or even show a profit. But having the mindset a favourite can't be beaten is a defeatist attitude. If you want value we have to work for it. But if we find the right races, there's value and fun out there. It's a little while off yet, but if Palentino is ticking over nicely, & runs in Cox @ $13 or more. I'll be on him. ???
Adam Page
Roar Guru
She was well and truly beaten in the ATC Oaks by Gust Of Wind, who failed to do anything since, and if you look at her runs at 2000m+m the form around it, outside her, has been plain, with the exception being Heavens Above. I'm not saying she can't win. I'm saying the $2.10 price for her to win the hardest race in Australia is poison odds.
Adam Page
Roar Guru
I think Winx and Chautauqua are on an even level when it comes to the best horse in Australia, keeping in mind that Chairmans Sprint win of the grey at Honkers. I just think she is a real risk at running 2040m, a genuine 2040m, against a hot field. The international contingent will be stronger, and she was pushed a touch to beat Hauraki yesterday, who was known as one of the better thinkers in the business. I agree re Hartnell. If we strike a wet track in the Caulfield Cup, he is the one to beat.
michael steel
Guest
I'm impressed with the tactics being used with Winx. She would be a back marker in a big field but withe the small field at WFA she has to be closer and that must be a more difficult for her. Winx is just a sensational horse.
seriously?
Guest
2016 will be a much stronger field than 2015. Seriously? Last year you had Highland Reel who has since franked the form massively, Criterion who was performing pretty well in red hot European G1s, a couple of other well performed invaders and a consistent old brigade of Aussies. This year there is less international depth and no apparent up and comers. Tosen Stardom, a horse with some x-factor, has an injury...who else can beat her? Surely not the United States or Lucia Valentina. Palentino or Black Heart Bart? Please. A three year old? Which one? For a 3 year old to beat an absolute champion at the peak of their powers is basically unheard of. Not going to happen. Hartnell some chance for sure if he travels well and starts. He is in incredible form and is the only danger I would say. Yes last year she got all the favours. She also won by 5 lengths and broke the track record. Why wouldn't she run the trip? She won a QLD Oaks over 2200 by about 5 and ran second in an AJC oaks over 2400. And did I mention she won over the same track and distance last year by 5? There is no basis to your argument, just a hunch, and a misguided one I'd say. She was a month between runs yesterday and won with her head on her chest. She will be better for that run, though she probably doesn't need to be to beat those running around in Melbourne at the moment. If Hartnell doesn't run (though I very much doubt he could beat her anyway at MV) the only way she doesn't win is if she doesn't start. I wouldn't be offering black odds if I was running a book.
George
Guest
Winx is the best horse in the country by a mile. That was like watching a barrier trial yesterday. If the Euros want to beat her they'd have to send down their absolute best , not their 2nd and 3rd level horses. Don't underrate a champion gents. As for Hartnell , it's been made clear by his trainer that the horse doesn't perform on firm tracks and doesn't travel well. IF he goes to Melbourne it will be for the Caulfield Cup so the clash with Win won't happen this Spring. If he were mine I'd go for the Metrop Handicap then put him away to take Win on in the QE2 in the Autumn.
Razzar
Guest
Agree wth you Adam about Winx in Cox, @ $2.10 meeting some great gallopers from here & around the world...Hartnell for one if runs, can make it a real staying test. She did get all the favours in last years Cox, where Highland reel got none. Happy Clapper is going very, didn't quite stretch out, on the firmer track. But can win a race this spring. He's our Rokki spanked them, winning form with more upside. Poss off to Toorak hcp. Loyalty Man 7th first up was there till condition gave out. He may also chase the mile events & expect he can be very competitive.. One more poor run from Preferment may show retirement is not far away. Special thanks to Denpurr yesterday. You saved my bacon.