Rosberg vs Hamilton: The battle to define 2016

The 2015 Formula One season was characterised by one-way traffic on the part of Lewis Hamilton, whose march to his third world championship proved irresistible early.

The 2014 season was marked by Mercedes’ at times uncontrollable ascendancy, and its struggle grappling with two hungry champions-elect.

Rewind to 2013 and relive a story of Red Bull Racing (et al.) railing against Pirelli’s tyres and bringing about a specification change that ultimately favoured the world championship-winning team and its driver, Sebastian Vettel.

Every year has its defining narrative, whether it is one of struggle — Fernando Alonso’s relentless pursuit of Sebastian Vettel despite substandard machinery in 2012 — or of blossoming talent, as was Vettel’s story in 2011.

The 2016 season so far remains undefinable.

The opening flyaway stanza suggested it could be settled somewhere in the grey area between Nico Rosberg’s arrival and Lewis Hamilton’s championship hangover.

By Monaco the story shifted. Hamilton regained his form, but he was shackled by an enormous points deficit that most assumed could only lead to a gallant but futile fightback.

Hamilton’s next seven races defied the expectations of even his most ardent supporters. Six wins in seven races not only neutralised Rosberg’s formidable championship advantaged, they overhauled it to the tune of 19 points.

Rosberg was on the ropes and at the mercy of Hamilton’s long innate abilities. It was shades of Hamilton’s six wins from seven to wrap up the 2014 title or his five wins from six to close last year’s championship with three rounds to spare.

But the tables have turned again since the midseason break.

Rosberg’s comeback from what was almost a clean race victory in arrears may have started from a place of good fortune in Belgium, but it culminated in a defiant display of dominance in Singapore.

His pole position — won with a lap a whopping 0.7 second faster than Hamilton’s best effort — was converted into a race victory that, despite Daniel Ricciardo’s thrilling pursuit to the finish, was never in much doubt.

Hamilton, afflicted with the same brake management troubles as Rosberg, struggled to master his car and required his pit wall to strategise his way past Kimi Räikkönen’s Ferrari.

A wheel-to-wheel fight it may not have been, but Rosberg unquestionably had the measure of Hamilton across every facet of the race weekend, and by doing so he put the championship into unchartered territory — Rosberg has never bounced back from such a significant momentum shift in the history of his partnership with Hamilton. The dynamic has fundamentally shifted.

The difference between Nico before and after the break is stark. Prior to adjourning for summer Rosberg had allowed himself to become trapped in the points margin rhetoric, and in doing so he was defining his season by how fast Hamilton was closing down his advantage.

Post-break the picture has reset to its default settings. Rosberg no longer refers to the championship table, and any question to such effect is quickly rebuffed with the well-worn sport cliché ‘to take it one week at a time’.

Returned too is Rosberg’s preference for deferring to Hamilton whenever his championship-winning aspirations are raised — “Lewis is the world champion,” goes the line, “and he’s still the best.”

It may sound like magnanimous teamspeak, but in reality it’s an effort to shift the weight of expectation off his shoulders and into the care of Lewis Hamilton.

This clever mind-management worked effectively at the beginning of the season before Rosberg became caught up with playing the points game — in Hungary he infamously defended his post-Monaco form by saying it had been good enough to hold a one-point lead over Hamilton — and it’s working a treat for him again.

The only remaining question is whether Rosberg can keep himself in his delicate mental sweet spot for two more months — and given he won three of the next six races in 2015 compared to Hamilton’s two, he’d be forgiven for backing himself to go the distance.

Headlines will have already been pre-written for a Hamilton championship to herald his gutsy fightback from an insurmountable points deficit, his natural speed proving too strong for Rosberg’s workmanlike approach even with a head start. It’s the expected story of a Hamilton championship in the face of significant hurdles.

A Rosberg-authored history would be a different story altogether. It would be a redefinition of his partnership with Hamilton. It would be a reassessment of Rosberg as a driver. It would be confirmation of what was originally expected of Rosberg’s tenure alongside his long-time teammate — that the cerebral driver would ultimately have the opportunity to negotiate his way past the superior natural talent.

In a scenario thought to be lost after his devastating 2015 campaign, Nico Rosberg is threatening to win the world championship by out-developing Hamilton as a driver. We’ll get the answer in six races time.