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Busting the week off myth

Will the week off help the Melbourne Storm reach another grand final? (AAP Image/David Crosling)
Roar Guru
23rd September, 2016
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As we head into the third week of the finals, the experts have been giving us their opinion on who will win and why.

The overwhelming majority are tipping a Cronulla Sharks versus Melbourne Storm grand final, with a lot of credence being given to both teams having a week off leading into this weekend’s matches.

In particular, I’ve heard commentators Ryan Girdler and Paul Kent talk at length about the advantage the week off provides. They’ve waxed lyrical about the benefit of being fresh and how the North Queensland Cowboys will struggle to back up their 90-minute effort against the Broncos last week.

Girdler, Kent and many other experts may tip correctly that the Sharks and Storm will win and face off in the grand final. Yet if they do, it will be because they are the best two teams, not because of the week off.

The theory that the top sides get an advantage from their bye before the preliminary final stage is a myth.

Since 1995 the NRL, formerly the ARL, has had a finals system of at least eight teams*, excluding the 1997 Super League. From 1995 to 2015, two teams have had a week off before the preliminary finals in each of these years.

The stats show overwhelmingly that the rest weekend gives no advantage to the top teams when it comes to reaching the grand final.

On only four occasions have both teams with the week off made it through to the grand final, while on three occasions neither of these teams has made the final weekend.

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In the vast majority – 13 from 20 instances – the grand finalists have consisted of one team with the week off and one team that played all four weeks of finals footy.

Of all 40 grand finalists in the last 20 years, 21 have had the chance to rest and 19 haven’t.

Thus the weight of history says the most likely match-up for the grand final is either the Cowboys versus the Storm or the Sharks versus the Raiders.

According to history, there is only a 20 percent chance that the Sharks and Storm will both win through.

However, though having the week off may not be an advantage in the preliminary stage it certainly is an advantage in the final game of the year.

Teams with the bye have been premiers 12 of the last 20 years and eight of 13 when playing a team that didn’t have the week off.

In the last ten years, this has become even more pronounced as teams with the week off have won eight of the last ten grand finals.

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Only the Broncos in 2006 and the Cowboys in 2015 have won the grand final without having a bye in the finals. However, that trend was quite different between 1995 and 2005, as the rested teams won only four from ten grand finals.

Anything can happen this weekend and we could end up with any combination of the four teams progressing.

Each of the final four are quality teams with brilliant players. History suggests one of the Sharks or Storm will hold up the trophy at the end of this year, but history also argues only one of them is likely to win this weekend.

*1998 had a ten team finals system, however two teams still had the week off before the preliminary finals.

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