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The Western Bulldogs’ miracle is just one win away.
Luke Beveridge’s boys have taken down both of last year’s grand finalists and a sacked Greater Western Sydney Giants side in their dramatic three September weeks, but now the mightiest of challenges awaits.
The Dogs already know how to defeat the Sydney Swans – they’ve done it in consecutive seasons – but they have never run into a Swans side in this menacing form.
Using what they’ve learnt from previous victories over Sydney, and with recent form and trends in mind, here are three things the Bulldogs must do in order to win their first premiership since 1954.
Don’t waste your chances inside 50
The Dogs’ and Swans’ contrasting styles make for a mouthwatering circumstance of tactical contests, none more so than the battle for field position.
Beveridge’s troops try to trap the ball inside their forward half, hoping that eventually their opponents’ defence will break. It worked to perfection against the Giants, as the Bulldogs held a 23-plus advantage in inside 50s, with GWS failing to contain the repeat entries.
The Dogs can implement this system due to their immense attacking pressure and strong spatial defensive set-up behind the play. The Bulldogs had 15 tackles inside 50 against GWS, while the wall built by Easton Wood, Jason Johannisen, Shane Biggs and Matthew Boyd was spectacular.
This season, the Bulldogs won the time in forward half battle by seven minutes and 55 seconds, which was second in the competition.
The Swans’ defence, however, is adept at handling such a style – they concede a goal from just 18.2 per cent of their opponents’ forward 50 entries, the lowest mark ever.
In their preliminary final against Geelong, Sydney conceded 32 more inside 50s, a number that would usually result in a heavy defeat.
The Swans’ backline is so resilient though, and doesn’t get beaten at ground level easily. They absorb pressure better than any team and have clean ball users in defence, so wasting chances against them is a cardinal sin.
Sydney launched 26 per cent of their scores from defensive midfield chains this season, ranked first, so they have the weapons to stifle repeat entries.
Throughout the season, the Bulldogs were too often unable to take advantage of their field position. Countless chances in front of goal have been wasted, a trend that’s carried into the finals.
Against West Coast, the Bulldogs kicked 14.15, followed by 16.11 against Hawthorn and 13.11 against the Giants.
In the Dogs’ Round 15 win over Sydney, they kicked 13.5, a rate they must replicate if they wish to lift the cup.
Jake Stringer, Tory Dickson, Clay Smith, Zaine Cordy and Tom Boyd are vital and must hit the Swans where it hurts the most – on the scoreboard.
Withstand the immediate Sydney onslaught
Sydney’s first quarters have been well documented, with prime examples coming in the last two weeks.
Against Geelong and Adelaide, the Swans came out breathing fire, booting seven goals in the opening terms – the two highest-scoring first quarters in Sydney finals history.
It was a complete demolition of two of the competition’s most talented sides, and now the Dogs need to prepare themselves for a similar onslaught.
The Bulldogs felt the wrath of Sydney’s quick starts back in Round 15, when the Swans had seven scoring shots to three at quarter time. Luckily for the Dogs, Sydney kicked just 2.5 in that game, a fortune that would be foolish to bet on happening again.
Not only will the Bulldogs need to withstand a blistering group of Swans to begin the game, they need to do so with possibly only one player with grand final experience, Matthew Suckling, who is under an injury cloud, having missed the preliminary final due to Achilles soreness.
This means the Dogs will be battling nerves, excitement and anxiousness, a scary trio, along with a Swans team looking to crash them from the onset.
It’s hard to narrow down what exactly Beveridge can do to help his side duck a potential knockout blow in the early stages of the bout.
The nerves are inevitable and each player deals with them differently. The coach can attempt to calm his side throughout the week, but it’s impossible not to get caught up in the festivities, culminating in a whirlwind of emotions when the Australian anthem blasts around the MCG.
Beveridge needs to bet on his team’s defensive structures and manic pressure to limit the Swans’ damage in the first term. It’s worked for Beveridge throughout the year, so trust what got you here.
Contain Lance Franklin
Is there a tougher task?
Franklin is in awe-inspiring form, evidenced by a 19-disposal, two-goal effort against the Cats. Those numbers don’t jump off the page, but he was the best player on the ground during Sydney’s quick start and his 84 per cent disposal efficiency rate shows his deadly nature.
No individual can change the flow of the game better than Franklin, and the Bulldogs will be having headaches when drafting a plan to shut him down.
The two Dogs who have matched-up on Franklin in their previous two wins over Sydney – Marcus Adams and Michael Talia – won’t be in uniform on Saturday. This leaves the Bulldogs in a conundrum as to which player lines up on Buddy.
Joel Hamling has been a finals revolution, playing shutdown roles on the likes of Jeremy Cameron, Josh Kennedy, Cyril Rioli and Jack Gunston. He likely gets the gig, but it’ll need to be a team effort.
No one man can stop Franklin, so Fletcher Roberts, Dale Morris, Wood, Biggs and Boyd will all have to chip in to assist Hamling.
No doubt Franklin will be out to avenge his poor outing in the 2014 grand final, his first big dance in Swans colours. The Bulldogs will want to make sure Franklin has to wait at least another year for his redemption story.
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