Both the Sydney Swans and the Western Bulldogs have qualified for the 2016 AFL grand final due to their resilience and hunger around the contests.
For the Swans, they got a double chance after finishing on top of the ladder, and although they lost to the Giants in week one of the finals, they now find themselves in the box seat to take home their club’s sixth VFL/AFL flag following impressive victories against Adelaide and Geelong.
The Bulldogs are just one step away from completing a fairytale story, with the club’s only premiership coming in 1954. The Dogs have taken the competition by storm this finals series with grueling victories against West Coast, Hawthorn and GWS, but whether they can sustain this level of football for another week remains the only query.
For obvious reasons, it is difficult to break down where this game will be won and lost as both sides have stood up under pressure in the past month, but taking a look at each teams’ field lines should help determine whose flag this is to lose.
Defence: Sydney
Everyone can say what they like about Sydney’s champion midfield, but it is the Swans defence that will win them the premiership. How did Geelong not win the preliminary final with 32 more inside 50s? Exactly.
While the Swans have a fantastic ability to zone off and create run out of the backline, they are the best shut down defence in the competition and that’s a huge reason as to why they have come this far this year.
Dane Rampe, Heath Grundy and Nick Smith have all produced stellar under-the-radar seasons, while Zac Jones, Jeremy Laidler and Aliir Aliir have been exceptional despite being in and out of the side.
With injury clouds over rising star winner Callum Mills, Allir and also co-captain Jarrad McVeigh, it could well and truly prove the difference in the end, although McVeigh has declared himself fit after missing last week with a calf injury. Taking injured players into a grand final has been costly in the past and it’s a risk that the Swans will have to take.
With the Swans defence able to nullify their opponents all season, it may not be as easy for the Dogs this week to find space, and since Sydney play one-on-one in the backline, experience could be what the Dogs will lack.
Western Bulldogs
With injuries to Robert Murphy and Marcus Adams during the year, players such as Jason Johannisen, Joel Hamling and Fletcher Roberts have had to take on added responsibility in defence, and despite their youthful ages, this has not troubled them.
It is likely however for Matt Suckling to come into the side on Saturday afternoon, and the logical switch would be to move on one of either Hamling or Roberts.
Suckling’s lethal left boot would be more than helpful to slice up Sydney’s zone, and his experience would do wonders.
With the exception of intercept king Easton Wood, the Bulldogs defence has been more well known for its run and carry through to the midfield, and if they are to beat the swans on Saturday, they will need to be more accountable than they have been in the past.
Sydney’s forward line is a mobile one and it could be easy for them to push deep in order to limit the impact of the Dogs’ defenders, meaning stand-in captain Easton Wood and Dale Morris almost become the most important players on the ground.
If these two players are kept up near the flanks then Hamling will need to be able to withstand Lance Franklin or Kurt Tippet, and this is difficult to imagine.
Midfield: Sydney
With both sides in the top four for contested possession this season, the game could be won and lost with composure and efficiency as opposed to contested ball and disposals.
Kieran Jack, Josh Kennedy, Dan Hannebery and Luke Parker have been doing it for years, they know what to expect when it comes down to perceived finals pressure and this could be a match winning factor.
After these four players however, Jake Lloyd, Isaac Heeney and Tom Mitchell are the next three depth midfielders, and while Heeney is a star of the future, as a collective they will need to come out firing.
Pace isn’t Sydney’s strength through the midfield, which is contrary to the Bulldogs, so a player like Gary Rohan will be needed to put together an inspiring performance against the speedy Bulldogs.
In a nutshell you know what you’re going to get in the middle of the ground from the Swans.
Western Bulldogs
Both teams will match it with each other in the contested area and that is no doubt, but pace with the ball in hand could be one area which will see the Dogs take the upper hand.
It has almost become a pre requisite under Luke Beveridge for any player going through the midfield at the Dogs to be able to break away from a stoppage and not just accumulate possessions.
The Bulldogs can either fall in the trap of being slow with the ball in order to rack up the numbers and give themselves more of a chance to take it down for a score, or play a high zone allowing the run of the midfielders to stream into an open forward line.
If this doesn’t occur throughout the game, then it is hard to see the Bulldogs winning. The Swans will win one-on-one, but the Dogs have a chance as long as Tom Liberatore, Marcus Bontempelli and Luke Dahlhaus are up for the challenge of running both ways.
Forward: Sydney
The Swans’ attacking half this season has been deadly, with Franklin, Ben McGlynn and Kurt Tippet the three mainstays.
Isaac Heeney, Luke Parker and Gary Rohan are also among others who feature in their highest goal scorers for the year, and it is Sydney’s x-factor, the number of players they can throw forward, which could hurt the Dogs defence.
The end result wont depend so much on how the Swans will structure up their forward line, but more how their defence can open up the game through rebounding. Midfielders such as Kennedy and Parker will take advantage of this which is why they have kicked plenty of goals this season, and the more stagnant the Swans’ ball movement is, the easier it will be for the Bulldogs defence.
Taking Matthew Boyd, Easton Wood and Jason Johannisen out of the game and limiting their influence should be high on the Swans agenda, so making them accountable may mean to keep Franklin deep as opposed to letting him roam free.
The Swans can score heavily and they have shown that this season, but they will only care about how little the Dogs are going to be scoring.
Western Bulldogs
Why the Bulldogs weren’t taken seriously this entire season is because of their lack of key forwards. It has basically been them throwing midfielders forward to be their goal-kickers, but this suits their style of play.
Come finals, came Tory Dickson and Jake Stringer, who can both play taller than what they appear. Tom Boyd will be the obvious full forward starter swapping with Roughead in the ruck, but the Swans will be able to match up anyone the Bulldogs throw forward.
With Aliir Aliir being ruled out of the game after succumbing to injury in the preliminary final win, it looms as an opportunity for the dogs to exploit the Swans defence and make them play taller than they wish.
The Swans will lose a lot of dynamic pace with Aliir out of the side, and while McVeigh will be a handy inclusion due to run, the Dogs could mix things up and play a taller forward line, which will see the Sydney captain not be so effective if he is closer to goal.
With the number of players able to run through the Dogs midfield, a forward line which includes the name ‘Bontempelli’ would well and truly throw the Swans off guard, and it’s not like the guy can’t kick a goal either.
We can sit here and think of reasons why both teams will win the game, but you can’t go past Sydney in this encounter.
The Swans will be able to win the game even if they are not playing at 100 per cent, whereas it seems if the Dogs are to be victorious, they will need everything going their way and they will need to do nothing less than to play the best football they have played all year.
GWS’ inexperience down back allowed Clay Smith, Toby McLean and Caleb Daniel to run riot, but if there is a team to know how to stop their influence, it’s Sydney.
In the end the Swans defence is going to be too difficult for the Dogs to break through, and their one-on-one style of play will mean the Bulldogs won’t find it as easy to score compared to the past three weeks.
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