Often it feels like the NFL can be reduced to the importance of a singular position. Football is a simple problem and the answer is always quarterback.
The quarterback exercises so much influence on the outcome of games that sometimes you start to feel that nothing else matters.
If you’ve got Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, you’re going to the playoffs every year and that’s all there is to it.
Andrew Luck, for a time, inspired similar confidence. You took one look at that hulking, yet somehow agile 6’3, 106kg frame, and you felt like his broad shoulders alone could carry a team to the playoffs.
As it happens, they can’t. Literally – he’s suffering from a shoulder injury – and more to the point, figuratively. The Colts are 1-3 after losing to Jacksonville in London, and could easily be 0-4 if Phil Rivers had completed a regulation third down pass the week before.
Luck is proof that a star quarterback is not the elixir to an entire team’s problems. The plights of Rivers and Drew Brees – fresh off their own battle of quarterbacking excellence and team-wide misery – over the last few years have suggested as much, and Luck is only further evidence. (Click to Tweet)
More, it seems, than years past, depth and a rounded roster far outweigh the singular importance of quarterback. The Broncos, Rams, Patriots, Texans, Cowboys and Vikings all have winning records with seriously unheralded quarterbacks (Sam Bradford might be ‘heralded’ but he’s never definitively proven that he’s ‘good’). The Eagles moved on from their starting quarterback days before the season, replaced him with a rookie and have coasted to an unbeaten start.
The NFL has become a league dominated by passing, with rules favouring quarterbacks and receivers, but we might be seeing a market correction. Entering Week 4, four of the top six teams by DVOA had offences ranking 16th, 23rd, 24th and 26th. All of the top six had top ten defences, including the top five overall defences.
In other words, this is really bad news for the Colts. Indy has long taken a stars and scrubs approach to roster building, dating back to the Peyton Manning era. Those teams were built around Manning and other transformational individual talents like Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis and Bob Sanders. Sometimes they were lacking for depth, but the sheer talent at the top covered up those holes.
It’s not a terrible philosophy and it’s one that the Colts have employed during Luck’s tenure as well. The problem is that in 2016 there aren’t any stars left – there are only scrubs.
It’s somewhere between unconscionable and comical that Luck’s supporting cast is this bad. Where are Indianapolis’ good players?
The Colts’ six highest players after Luck are TY Hilton, Anthony Castonzo, Dwayne Allen, Vontae Davis, D’Qwell Jackson and Robert Mathis. So we’ve got a very good wide-out, a mediocre offensive lineman, a below-average tight end, a star cornerback, a woeful linebacker and a 35-year-old pass rusher. This is what they’ve spent their money on.
Beyond Luck, Hilton and Davis, there’s just nothing here. The defence has been abominable, 28th in DVOA entering the week, a ranking that will surely take a hit after giving up 30 points to Blake Bortles. The miscues oscillate between farcical and just sad – whether you like coverage breakdowns, missed tackles, penalties or a lack of discipline, this Colts D will deliver it. They can’t pressure the quarterback and they can’t hold up in pass protection – a bad combination.
The offensive line, which was supposed to be improved, has been traumatically bad, unable to protect Luck – at this rate, 15 brutal sacks down already, he surely won’t survive past Thanksgiving. His skill position ‘weapons’, for so long Indianapolis’s saving grace, have disappointed, with four vital drops costing the team in London.
Luck’s own performance has waxed and waned, looking his breathtaking self in week one against Detroit, before appearing overwhelmed by Denver’s defence in week two (it happens) and uneven against the Chargers and Jags. In places like Seattle, Baltimore, Minnesota and Denver, teams have the supporting casts in place to still prosper while their quarterbacks work through growing pains or injuries.
Luck does not have that luxury. He has zero margin for error. One mistake – like his first quarter interception in London – is enough to sink his team. His teammates aren’t good enough to bail him out, and neither is his organisation, which didn’t stick him with better ones.
It’s all on his shoulders, and as gigantic as they might be, the load is too heavy and doesn’t look to be getting any lighter.
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