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For some time, FIFA’s new president, Gianni Infantino, has been talking about expanding the FIFA World Cup finals tournament from 32 nations to 40 or more.
In January 2017, the FIFA council will vote on this decision.
As soon as Infantino first mentioned such an expansion, the football world went into a typically hysterical meltdown, with wails of “disaster” and “the end of the World Cup” appearing on social media and message boards.
My first reaction was to join the mass hysteria.
Then, I decided to do something strange for a football fan. I decided to read beyond the headline.
I discovered that Infantino’s suggestion was not outrageous. And, most importantly, if structured properly, it could have zero impact on the quality of the group stage at the World Cup.
The FIFA World Cup takes place every four years and as a general rule, every association affiliated with FIFA may participate.
The FIFA World Cup consists of two stages, being the preliminary competition and the final competition.
During the preliminary competition, nations play a series of matches within their confederation and the best nations progress to the final competition, depending upon the number of spots allocated to each confederation.
The FIFA World Cup finals are held over one month and the 32 nations that qualify are initially divided into eight groups of four nations, with each nation playing each of their opponents in their group, once.
The top two nations in each group then move to the knockout stage of the competition and by the time the finale is concluded, 64 matches have been played across the tournament.
Infantino would like to have 48 nations, not 32, qualify for the World Cup. However, Infantino is not suggesting these 48 nations be divided into eight groups of six nations, or twelve groups of four nations, or any other combination.
Rather, Infantino’s proposal is quite simple.
He would like to have the preliminary stage as we do now but, instead of 32 nations qualifying automatically for the group stage at the World Cup finals, Infantino wants only the top 16 nations to gain automatic qualification.
He then wants 32 nations to play one knock-out match in the week before the group stage. The 16 winners progress to the groups, while the 16 losers take the plane home.
Currently, the group stage at the World Cup finals has the following allocations:
Host nation: 1
Asian Football Confederation (AFC): 4.5
Confederation of African Football (CAF): 5
Confederation of North, Central American and Caribbean Association Football (CONCACAF): 3.5
The South American Football Confederation (CONMEBOL): 4.5
Oceania Football Confederation (OFC): 0.5
Union of European Football Associations (UEFA): 13
The 0.5 allocation means one nation from that confederation has a two-leg playoff against a nation from another confederation with a 0.5 allocation, and the winner progresses.
While Infantino has not provided any more details, it is not difficult to create a structure that ensures each confederation still retains the existing allocated spots at the group stage.
For instance, this table shows how the World Cup finals could look with 47 nations qualifying, while as per the current rules, the hosts would automatically qualify.
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| Confederation | Total nations qualifying | Direct into groups | Playoff | Allocation in group stage |
| AFC | 7.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 |
| CAF | 8.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 |
| CONCACAF | 5.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | CONMEBOL | 6.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 4.5 | OFC | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | UEFA | 20.0 | 6.0 | 14.0 | 13.0 |
If we take the AFC as an example, currently, the top four nations qualify for the group stage at the World Cup finals and a fifth AFC nation has a two-leg play-off against either a nation from CONMEBOL or CONCACAF.
With an expanded World Cup finals under the system dictated in the table, seven AFC nations would qualify.
However, only two AFC nations would qualify directly into the group stage. The next five AFC nations would have to play a knockout match in the week before the group stage begins at the World Cup finals.
After the qualifiers, AFC nations ranked third to sixth would play a knockout match against each other and the two winners would progress. The AFC would, therefore, retain four nations in the group stage.
The seventh-ranked AFC nation would have a one-match playoff against a CONMEBOL or CONCACAF nation, and the winner of that match would progress to the group stage.
I can see the benefits of Infantino’s idea.
There is the attraction of having 16 more nations experiencing all the build-up and excitement attached to playing in a World Cup.
16 knockout matches before the group stage would be a massive global TV ratings success that would also raise more revenue for FIFA.
It’s hard to say whether the expansion would diminish the World Cup qualification process, or whether it would make it more cut-throat. In Asia, with only two nations qualifying directly into the groups, one of the “big three” Asian football nations will have to rely on a sudden-death playoff.
However, regardless of what FIFA decides, I’m equally happy to maintain the current structure, or to embrace change.
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