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Michael Cheika’s Russian roulette selections for tonight’s Wallaby clash with the All Blacks has made it nigh on impossible to break the 30-year drought at Eden Park.
It would require a monumental shock result like Don Bradman’s duck in his last Test innings at The Oval in 1948, needing just four runs to own a career average of 100, for the Wallabies to win tonight.
The Don had to settle for an average of 99.94 on that famous August 14 day, the Wallabies will have to settle for minimising the margin of their defeat.
How the coach can look for a much needed win yet still support Dean Mumm and Nick Phipps in the starting line-up defies description, while naming David Pocock on the bench magnifies the Russian roulette situation.
Mumm should be dressed in his number ones in the stand, Phipps at best on the bench because there isn’t a third halfback good enough to be in the mix, and no Wallaby side should start an international without Pocock if he’s fit to play.
Unthinkable.
Steve Hansen and his All Blacks must be sporting smiles wider than the Sydney Heads as they prepare to reach yet another milestone with a record 18th successive victory.
They never get tired of winning. Since 2012 they have played their long-term rivals 14 times home-and-away to chalk up 11 wins, a loss, and two draws in accumulating a commanding 439 points to 249.
The loss was 27-19 at ANZ in August last year, the two draws were 18-all at Suncorp in 2012, and 12-all at ANZ in 2014.
But apart from those three hiccups, it’s been one-way traffic.
And the only way the All Blacks can be beaten is for the Wallabies to be at full strength and in form. Losing Will Genia back to Stade Francais is critical.
The Wallabies can never afford to carry any passengers.
In the three Test losses to England, the Wallabies scored 75 points, England 106. The Wallabies crossed for ten tries to nine, but their ill-discipline cost them dearly with England landing 15 penalties to five – end of story.
The Wallabies finished second in the Rugby Championship on the strength of one win over the Boks, and two over the Pumas.
In the wash-up, the Wallabies posted 194 points for, and 253 against – hardly riveting.
It was the same one-way traffic against the All Blacks scoring 17 points to 71 – one try to 10.
It was squared away against the Boks, scoring 33 points to 35, and three tries to two.
The only one-way traffic to the Wallabies was at the Pumas’ expense, scoring 69 points to 41, and nine tries to four.
But if the Wallabies couldn’t achieve those stats against Argentina, then forget about trying to compete against New Zealand.
Michael Cheika’s team / the team to beat the All Blacks:
1 – Scott Sio 24 caps / Sio.
2 – Stephen Moore (c) 111 / Moore.
3 – Sekoe Kepu 72 / Keu
4 – Rory Arnoold 5 / Arnold
5 – Adam Coleman 5 / Coleman
6 – Dean Mumm 52 / Timanii
7 – Michael Hooper 60 / Hooper.
8 – Lopeti Timani 2 / Pocock
9 – Nick Phipps 47 / Frisby.
10 – Bernard Foley 36 / Cooper
11 – Henry Speight 5 / Kerevi
12 – Reece Hodge 5 / Hodge
13 – Samu Kerevi 7 / Folau
14 – Dane Haylett-Petty 9 / Naivalu
15 – Israel Folau 47 / Haylett-Petty
16 – James Hanson 11 / Hanson
17 – Tom Robertson 3 / James Slipper 82
18 – Allan Ala’alafoa 4 / Robertson
19 – Rob Simmons 65 / Simmons
20 – David Pocock 60 / Scott Fardy 37
21 – Nick Frisby 2 / Phipps
22 – Quade Cooper 63 / Foley
23 – Sefa Naivalu 5 / Speight