I know who is going to win the Melbourne Cup

Greg Prichard Columnist

By Greg Prichard, Greg Prichard is a Roar Expert

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    Scottish has been ruled out of the 2016 Melbourne Cup. (AAP Image/Joe Castro)

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    UPDATE: So Scottish has been scratched, but I’m sticking by my number 2 selection.

    Big Orange to actually run and get up!

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    An early tip is a good tip, or at least I hope. Here are mine:
    1. Scottish
    1. Big Orange
    2. Hartnell

    Original article:

    After watching the replay of the Caulfield Cup so many times I know the race-caller’s description off by heart, I’ve got the Melbourne Cup winner for you – Scottish.

    A week ahead of time, too. You can thank me later.

    Seriously though, Scottish’s run in that race was phenomenal. I’ve seen all the lead-up races to the big one on the first Tuesday in November and that was the best cup trial.

    Do yourself a favour if you haven’t had a close look yourself yet and check out a replay. It’s hard to believe Scottish was able to run second when you consider the huge amount of work he had to do in the race.

    Scottish was slow out of the barriers and as he tried to make up a little ground down the straight the first time he got squeezed sideways towards the fence, at which point he started throwing his head about.

    His jockey, Kerrin McEvoy, decided the best option from there was to let the horse go forward and Scottish went into the turn out of the straight fives horses wide.

    He had to be kept going to try to get around the field and at about the 1200-metre mark of the 2400-metre event he finally got to the lead and crossed to the fence.

    It was always going to be a big ask for Scottish to go on and win from there. Surely he was going to get worn out and drop back into the ruck at the finish. But, while he didn’t win, only one horse could get past him and that was the favourite, Jameka, who had enjoyed a charmed run by comparison.

    If there’s a worry with Scottish it’s the fact he hasn’t raced over 3200m before and if he wanted to go quicker in the Caulfield Cup will he have trouble settling in the Melbourne Cup.

    Scottish, prospective Melbourne Cup winner.

    Hopefully, his trainer and jockey can manage to guard against that.

    It makes sense that Hartnell is the favourite for the cup and Jameka the second favourite.

    Hartnell has been the outstanding horse of the spring apart from the incredible Winx, who, fortunately for the cup hopes, isn’t a 3200-metre horse.

    Included in Hartnell’s wins was a decisive one over Jameka in the Turnbull Stakes, after which Jameka went on to win the Caulfield Cup.

    Winx blew Hartnell away in just a few strides when they came to grips before the home turn in the WS Cox Plate at Moonee Valley last Saturday, but Hartnell did well to still hang on for second when he could’ve easily faded to finish behind the placegetters.

    But neither Hartnell nor Jameka has a strong grip on the cup and while this year’s edition of the race won’t be among the best we’ve seen in terms of the overall quality of the field, there are a number of genuine chances.

    Exospheric and Almoonqith each finished very strongly for third and fourth respectively in the Caulfield Cup. Their runs said they would be better suited over the longer distance of the Melbourne Cup and the bigger track at Flemington.

    Almandin is owned by Lloyd Williams, who has made an art form of finding potential Melbourne Cup winners to buy. The horse has taken a relatively low-key path towards the big race compared to some of the other runners mentioned here, but has still been very impressive.

    And British horse Big Orange is back as a five-year-old for another crack at the cup after running a splendid fifth last year, when he led. Big Orange will be much better off for that experience and he since has the form on the board in the UK.

    Other chances: Jameka, Almandin, Almoonqith, Exospheric.

    Why wait any longer for a Melbourne Cup tip?

    Greg Prichard
    Greg Prichard

    Greg Prichard has spent all of his working life in the media, from way back when journalists were still using typewriters. He has covered rugby league, football, AFL and various other sports for News Limited and Fairfax newspapers and also worked for magazines, radio and pay television. Twitter: @gregprichard

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    The Crowd Says (50)

    • October 25th 2016 @ 6:46am
      no one in particular said | October 25th 2016 @ 6:46am | ! Report

      Is Scottish running in the Cup?

      • October 25th 2016 @ 4:30pm
        Tone said | October 25th 2016 @ 4:30pm | ! Report

        Geez I really don’t know about that. Read the headline and quickly clicked on it to see the tip- I had discounted Scottish more than a week ago. Three big problems I had were the trainer has come out before Caulfield and said he had his doubts about 3200 and preferred aiming at the 2000m Emirates after Caulfield, secondly his best ratings have been consistently better over shorter distances than 2400 his ratings have always dipped for his 2400m runs, and thirdly if he has trouble settling he has no chance because any horse that pulls his way to the lead will finish in the last few. I agree his Caulfield Cup run was very good in the circumstances but that won’t change the fact that the Melbourne Cup is not his caper. There are a couple of really good stayers in the field with only 51 kgs

      • Editor

        October 25th 2016 @ 11:31pm
        Tristan Rayner said | October 25th 2016 @ 11:31pm | ! Report

        No – official tonight. Greg’ll have to find us another winner…

      • October 26th 2016 @ 10:41am
        Dave said | October 26th 2016 @ 10:41am | ! Report


    • Roar Rookie

      October 25th 2016 @ 7:45am
      DrGeorge said | October 25th 2016 @ 7:45am | ! Report

      And what if he draws barrier 24?

    • Roar Rookie

      October 25th 2016 @ 7:54am
      DrGeorge said | October 25th 2016 @ 7:54am | ! Report

      What if the winner of the Lexus Stakes this Saturday puts in an awe-inspiring performance?… Scottish won’t win the MC, one reason being his handicap, potential poor barrier draw, and queries over the 3200m distance… It is a little foolhardy to make such a bold prediction so soon… A lot can change in one week…

    • October 25th 2016 @ 8:07am
      Uglykiwi said | October 25th 2016 @ 8:07am | ! Report

      Greg, huge chance in what is really a weak cup field.

      Jameka, will she run 3200m….. Maybe? but 6/1 is a little short. Hartnell is currently 4/1, again very short.

      I’ve had a little look at Secret Number; I think this is huge overs (currently 50/1 using the boosters). Great value in my opinion.

      • October 28th 2016 @ 7:29am
        Shane Caldwell said | October 28th 2016 @ 7:29am | ! Report

        Do you think that Secret Number requires a soft track, form looks good but all on soft track, Normally Flemington is a bit hard ?

    • October 25th 2016 @ 8:31am
      Haradasun said | October 25th 2016 @ 8:31am | ! Report

      weak? hartnell is ranked 10th best horse in the world! its going to be a cracking race as always. Almandin scottish hartnell all with great claims. ill take your scottish though and raise with bondi beach. He is the one they have to beat.

      • Roar Guru

        October 25th 2016 @ 10:33am
        Will Sinclair said | October 25th 2016 @ 10:33am | ! Report

        You’re clueless Haradasun.

        • October 25th 2016 @ 11:13am
          Haradasun said | October 25th 2016 @ 11:13am | ! Report

          You didn’t believe me when I tipped you Green Moon either.

    • October 25th 2016 @ 8:40am
      Razzar said | October 25th 2016 @ 8:40am | ! Report

      It was a good run by Scottish. But it’s hard what to make of the Caufield cup…Rather moderate field…Tally was dreadful, but went in with ok form…the Heath may not be his track.

      But the MCup does look open… It’s generally more of novelty race to have a flutter and hope for the best. I’ve always liked to back 4 or 5 runners for win only at good value and link them with an exotic.

      But if you like Scottish Greg, go for it, and all the best of luck.?

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