This Wallabies side will not win Australia's second grand slam ever

In the end, after some flooding rather than leaking about new, unexpected Wallabies (think ‘Tongan Thor’ Taniela Tupou, Jack Dempsey, Izaia Perese), Michael Cheika announced a 32-man squad.

It has the right balance of tough campaigners, youngsters who have emerged with credit this difficult season, along with three uncapped players who have the potential to enhance the Test squad.

Cheika has done the right thing here. A Grand Slam tour is no place to blood those with limited experience of big-time rugby. With nine new players from 2016 in the squad, Cheika has left plenty of room for growth.

This is an important consideration. This touring edition of the 2016 Wallabies will have to be significantly better than the sides that played England, New Zealand, Argentina and South Africa in the home season.

If Cheika keeps his head in the coaching box with his preparation and does not indulge in a repeat of the Wellington and Auckland post-Test Loony Tunes outbursts, there is a possibility the Wallabies will be up to the Grand Slam challenge.

The coach’s ability to control his anger will be put to a serious Test by a British rugby media that puts the boot viciously into touring sides in the hope of destroying them. In Europe the crowd sees themselves as the 16th player for the home side – the media regards themselves as the 17th.

Cheika needs to stick to coaching and avoid choking under the relentless pressure of the Fleet Street reptiles.

Back to the touring squad. All the players who played well against the All Blacks in the Eden Park Test are included, with the exception of Samu Kerevi, who came off early in the Test and is out with injury for the rest of the season.

Despite a 37-10 scoreline at Eden Park, there was evidence in the performance (at least for 50 minutes or so) that the Wallabies were edging their way to becoming a formidable side.

The big three in the forwards are there: Rory Arnold, Adam Coleman and Lopeti Timani. Along with a reinvigorated Stephen Moore, these players are crucial to the success of the Grand Slam campaign. If they can replicate the mongrel and skills they showed at Eden Park, where they out-played at times their illustrious opponents, the Wallabies have a remote chance of winning their Grand Slam games.

However, they need to enhance the short passing game Mick Byrne is teaching them that gives the Wallabies more variety and a flatter line for their attacks. Whether the necessary improvements can be made is debatable.

On tour, too, there will be time to work out the problems with defence. As well as Australia played at Eden Park, for instance, the All Blacks scored six tries and bombed two others, compared to the other scored by the Wallabies and a second try that was rightly disallowed. Again, the chronic defensive weaknesses won’t be easily resolved.

The attack, too, has been problematical throughout the season. This brings us to the controversial selection of the former Melbourne Storm speedster Marika Koroibete.

In general, I would not endorse the selection to Wallaby honours of a player who has not played provincial rugby at any level. Moreover, we have seen with Wendell Sailor that success at the highest level in league does not necessarily equate with success at the highest level in rugby.

But Koroibete has several things going for him with his switch to the Wallabies. He is 24, in his prime as an athlete and with time to significantly improve his rugby skills.

Despite his relative young age, he has played 74 NRL matches, among them a clutch of finals games. He is experienced on the field and used to the big occasions. Better, too, he is a try scorer, with 46 tries in his NRL career. That represents a terrific strike rate.

A winger who can score tries – as Julian Savea demonstrated at Eden Park and Israel Folau showed earlier in his career – is just about the most important player in the side. Koroibete could be the missing try scorer, the finisher, who converts the attacks into points with his knack of scoring.

He is a tenacious and smart defender as well. Again, the Wallabies have lacked a player with this skill for some time. At Eden Park three of New Zealand’s tries came from mistakes made by Australian defenders out wide.

Joe Roff, a great winger and a shrewd thinker on rugby, is worried about Koroibete’s elevation to Wallaby status if this was part of the deal to get him to come across to rugby from league.

This notion of ‘entitlement’ to a Wallaby jersey is a difficult one, admittedly. Sometimes a coach has to select on a hunch or a shrewd guess before the actual hard evidence is in.

There is merit, of course, in seeing what a league player can do on the rugby field before he is handed the gold jersey. But in the case of Koroibete, we have a fair idea of what he can do. He scored tries by the hat-full in a code where defence is the key element of play.

The Wallabies desperately need players who can actually score tries, and especially tries from a long way out. I think of these long-range try-scorers in terms of a tennis player with a massive serve who gets numerous easy points because of this talent. Currently, with Folau not scoring tries, the Wallabies have a sound all-court game, but no big weapons like a massive serve.

I say give Koroibete a go.

But let’s not underestimate the challenge that Cheika faces with this tour. The reality is that the the 3-0 whitewash by England, the 3-0 blackwash by New Zealand and the seven defeats in ten Tests this season make the record right now the worst season ever for the Wallabies.

After the England series, a knowledgeable friend sent me an email detailing how tough the schedule is this year: “Have you had a look at the Wallabies’ schedule for the rest of the year? We play eight Tests in ten weeks from October 1 culminating in a fourth Test v England at Twickenham.

“It it hasn’t been tough enough watching the 0-3 drubbing then the lambs to the slaughter match at the end of a gruelling road trip could be very ugly. Eddie Jones will be licking his lips at the prospect…

“It is very possible that after the final Test in December we will have only won two or three games. To win five may be credible. If that is the case it would be our worst year since 1989 (33 per cent).”

The Grand Slam tour is:
Nov 5 v Wales (Millenium Stadium, Cardiff)
Nov 12 v Scotland (Murrayfield, Edinburgh)
Nov 19 v France (Stade de France [not strictly a Grand Slam Test])
Nov 26 v Ireland (Aviva Stadium, Dublin)
Dec 3 v England (Twickenham, London)

Of these teams, only England is ranked above the Wallabies on the World Rugby table:

1. New Zealand (96.57)
2. England (89.49)
3. Australia (85.33)
4. South Africa (84.85)
5. Wales (82.49)
6. Ireland (81.67)
7. France (80.75)
8. Scotland (80.44)

Based on the ranking, the Wallabies could win three of the four Grand Slam Tests. But it won’t work out like that.

The match against Wales will be the 600th Test for the Wallabies. Wales are the only side this year to have led the All Blacks at halftime, which they did in the first Test of their series in New Zealand. They will have all their best players back, too. And remember, on the Grand Slam tour of 2013, it was the first Test, against England, that was lost before the next four Tests were won.

Scotland will feel that they were robbed by a refereeing decision (wrong!) in the 2015 Rugby World Cup quarter-final.

Ireland will have played two Tests against the All Blacks, which could make or break the squad.

England will be confident of winning an unprecedented fourth Test against the Wallabies in a year.

To defeat all the four Home Unions (the Grand Slam unions) will be a momentous achievement. Only one Australian team, Alan Jones’ men in 1984, has done this. This (essentially) was the same side that went on to defeat the All Blacks at Eden Park, the last time the Wallabies have done this, too.

Right now, especially after the 37-10 loss at Eden Park last week, I can’t see Cheika’s side emulating Jones’ Wallabies. They are lacking great players virtually in every position. Their record this year also suggests their glory days – if they are to come – won’t be this year.

They do not have the habit of winning, which is the mark of great teams.

So my fearless prediction is that there will be no Grand Slam for the Wallabies in 2016.