Although 2016 has been year of ‘firsts’ in ball sport – Cronulla in the NRL, Cleveland in the NBA, Leicester in the English Premier League – we too had a ‘first’ in last year’s Melbourne Cup.
Michelle Payne became the first female jockey to win the race, taking the cake on the New Zealand-bred 100-1 shot, Prince of Penzance.
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So the odds are probably against another ‘first’ happening.
If you want to base your selection on the cold hard statistics of previous Melbourne Cup winners, here’s a guide.
The age of your horse
Five year-olds have won the Melbourne Cup more than any other.
The sex of your horse
Only 16 female horses have won the Melbourne Cup since it was first run in 1861, though it needs to be remembered that far more male horses enter the race. The last female winner was the legendary Makybe Diva when she claimed her ‘threepeat’ in 2005.
Handicap
Since 2000, only three horses have won the Melbourne Cup carrying 56kg or more. Eight of the 24 horses are carrying 56kg or more in the 2016 race.
Saddlecloth
Numbers 4 and 12 have won the race more times than any other (11 times each). In 2016, that’s Bondi Beach (4) and Jameka (12).
Trainers
The most successful Melbourne Cup-winning trainer in this year’s event is Lee Freedman, whose previous horses have won the race five times. His last win was in 2005 with Makybe Diva. He has Exospheric and Our Ivanhowe running in the 2016 Cup.
Jockeys
The most successful Melbourne Cup-winning jockeys in this year’s field are Damien Oliver and Glen Boss, who have both won the race 3 times. Oliver’s last win was in 2013 on Fiorente, while Boss won 3 in a row on Makybe Diva (2003-2005).
Oliver is on the Lee Freedman-trained Exospheric in this year’s race, while Boss will ride Grey Lion.
Barrier draw
Barrier 11 is the most successful in Melbourne Cup history. It last provided a winner in 2014 with Protectionist. Oceanographer has drawn it this year.
Barrier 18 has never won the race. Curren Mirotic has it this year.
The wash-up
Based on the stats, the ‘sure thing’ in the 2016 field would be a five-year-old male horse that is carrying less than 56kg, has drawn Barrier 11, has saddlecloth 4 or 12, is trained by Lee Freedman, and is being ridden by either Damien Oliver or Glen Boss.
Naturally there isn’t a horse with all those characteristics in the race. The one that comes the closest to all of them is Exospheric. He’s a four-year-old male horse, carrying 56kg, starting from Barrier 13 with saddlecloth 5, trained by Lee Freedman and will be ridden by Damien Oliver.
But of course, you can always just go with your gut and pick a horse’s name that you like.
Who is your tip for the big race?
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