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The Neutral Weekly Report: Italy, Canada, England, Argentina, and of course, Ireland's big win

Ireland put an end to England's unbeaten streak in the Six Nations. (AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski)
Roar Guru
10th November, 2016
134
1943 Reads

Hello mates! There is only one place to start and that is at Soldier Field. The Irish finally got a win. I had a pretty strong hunch before the Test that Ireland would win, but no way I was expecting them to win in that manner, a nine-try rugby festival.

No point for me ramble too much about the Test, because there have been several excellent posts here at The Roar – special shout outs to Carlos, Digger and Harry – about the Test. Check them out if you not already have done it.

The one thing I like to add is that Ireland did something I have seen in football a lot more than in rugby; a solid tactical plan executed to almost perfection by a lesser team. I know it is more easy – without ever being easy – to cause a big upset in football. It still amazes me that so many rugby teams even at Test level seem to just go out and play and hope for the best – especially if the opposition are superior on paper – with an ‘if we just can get the scoreboard ticking we take it from there’ attitude.

That rarely happens in football at top level. The weaker team on paper always look for multiple realistic ways to ruin the day for the superior team. Coaches can talk as much as they want about only focusing on their own performance, when you face a superior opponent you have to take notice big time and tweak your own game plan in absurdum to nullify the other team. And you have to be very honest about your own shortcomings and strengths. Otherwise that golden game plan will have the same worth as used toilet paper.

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So up next for the All Blacks is Italy in Rome. For a long time it has been very hard to see any kind of forward movement in Italian rugby. It would be refreshing if they at least occasionally could challenge for bigger honors than avoiding the wooden spoon (I know they have a few Six Nations scalps, but all of them has come due to the opposition had horror shows).

The big goal of Italian rugby is to reach a quarter-final in a World Cup. I can’t see that happening in 2019 and I can’t see that happening in the next 12 years after. The Italian clubs I have seen in European competition this year are awful. Some day soon an Italian club is going to concede 200 points (I kid you not, they are that bad). The last few years I have seen several tier-two nations that are much better than Italy and there are more tier-two nations pushing from behind to overtake Italy in the pecking order.

A few weeks ago I listened to an interview with the new Italian head coach Conor O’Shea. He was frank about the fact that the task ahead is very hard. Most Italian top players don’t even know how to pass the ball correctly and lack many other basic rugby skills, so in many ways it is back to square one.

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The only positive thing I could hear him say was that Italians don’t have the same drinking culture as many other rugby countries. Italian players will have a glass of wine for dinner and that is good enough. There is no need for an alcohol ban he said. That is all the Italians have got going for them.

It is too bad that the Italian union persists at playing at Stadio Olimpico. I have been there many times and that stadium sucks. You are far, far, far away from the action and many seats have a very limited visibility. Most fans of local football clubs Roma and Lazio despise the stadium and watch home games on TV instead. These days not even the Rome derby sells out.

There have been talks about a new stadium in Rome for a very long time, but so far nothing has materialized. Until they have sorted out a new stadium in Rome, I wish they could play big Tests at San Siro in Milan instead. A beautiful tight arena that suits Test rugby perfectly. Tests against lesser nations could be played at Juventus top modern arena in Turin (also perfect for Test rugby).

Wherever they might play, we all know what to expect this weekend. Even if Italy have their day of days and the All Blacks field their weakest side and have their worse day ever, the All Blacks will still win with at least with 30 points. It is a Test match in theory but in reality it is New Zealand’s warm-up game for the big one next week in Dublin.

Saying that, I am still very much in favour of the big nations playing the lesser ones regularly. If lesser nations don’t play against the crème de la crème, how are they ever going to improve? Hard training only will not cut it.

When the result is of no concern we have to focus on other things to find twists. The big question for me is who is the number one choice as scrumhalf now? With hindsight it would been much smarter if the All Blacks would have started with TJ Perenara in Chicago instead of Aaron Smith, but it is easy to see why the selectors went with Smith. Before “Toiletgate” he was in shining form and everyone with black blood wanted him back in full swing – at the rugby field – as soon as possible.

That looked easier said than done in Chicago. Instead of having Smith back in form the All Blacks have a scrumhalf who looks rusty and might doubt himself. How to solve this problem? Putting him on the bench against Italy and give him 20-25 minutes at the end when the Italians have softened? That sounds alright, but does that mean TJ is number one and Smith is the new number two? It sure looks like that to me.

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Will Smith ever find his game again or will he walk down the same sad lane as Tiger Woods? After the golfer’s personal life crashed in public he has not even been close to finding his champion game again.

Ireland will also play a ‘warm-up game’ this week against Canada. And we can expect the same outcome here as in Rome. Maestro Schmidt will rest most of his starting players from Chicago – and let them sober up I assume – and give the reserves a chance to prove that they should be included next week. Because there is no chance Ireland can lose against Canada. Just like Italian rugby, Canadian rugby seems to be stuck with very little hope of improving. These days even the US Eagles have the upper hand on them (that was not the case only ten years ago).

At first glance Canada have a lot of similarities with New Zealand. Two former British colonies that are kid brothers to much larger neighbors (who were also British colonies). Like New Zealand Canada have also embraced and embedded the natives culture and heritage in a wider Canadian identity (unlike their big brother neighbors). Canada is also filled with remote villages were young boys grows up working hard hours on farms in extremely harsh conditions (meaning excellent rugby cattle).

The big difference is that in large parts of Canada they have long and brutal winters that make rugby impossible to play for more than six months a year. So the young boys start to play ice hockey instead. Canada’s status in the ice hockey world is very similar to New Zealand’s in rugby. It is the national sport, most of the time they are ranked No.1 and the common know how – among ordinary people – about the game is huge. If Canadian rugby somehow could tap in a little bit to the talent pool ice hockey has, they could easily be in the top ten nations in the rugby world. But that is very unlikely to happen.

Something that is also very unlikely to happen is a Wallabies loss against Scotland. At least if I am to believe what many Roarers have expressed among the comments this week. There seems to be a large consensus that this game is some sort “experimental work shop”. Funny thing, when the Wallabies lose against the best team in the world they are useless, when they beat a clueless Wales all is forgotten and the Wallabies are world beaters who should rotate the squad, use players out of position and joke around a little at Murrayfield.

Okay okay, I’m going a bit over the top here. Many Aussie Roarers knows that this is not an easy Test at all. And they are damn right. After a couple of dark years Scottish rugby is on the up again. No one has forgotten how hard they pushed an in-form Wallabies team last year. They are no regular world beaters, but they are good enough to push any team hard around the park. On a good day they are very capable of beating almost anyone, especially Australia.

If Australia is Wales’ kryptonite then Scotland could be considered to be that of the Wallabies. Even when Scotland have looked completely hopeless they always managed to turn up against the Wallabies. History tells us that world rankings and form seems to mean little when these two teams meet.

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Saying all this, the Wallabies will start the Test as heavy favourites. And with good reason. They beat Wales so bad that even the Welsh stopped believing in dragons and fairy tales for a while. The first half was absolutely brilliant. Yes they bombed a couple of tries, but if we look at the performance, I can’t even remember when I last saw the Wallabies play so good. It was top notch propaganda rugby. Brutal and beautiful.

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We can all feel a little bit sorry for the Welsh, but we can all take comfort in that they know about this feeling. They have been there before. A lot. And somehow they will come back and start dreaming about an illusive victory over the Wallabies and world rugby dominance again. But until then they have to regroup and come up with a plan how to beat Argentina this weekend. And that will be no picnic. Not after their show in Tokyo.

It has to be said that Japan was very under strength and they fielded twelve debutantes in their match day 23. But I liked what I saw and it looked very much like Los Pumas have got themselves some big boy pants. They played with a little more conservative game plan this time and did not run out with all guns blazing like they did in The Rugby Championship. They took their time, worked the motions and executed well. The reward they got was a huge win and some beautiful tries.

Los Pumas are almost at full strength now (if we forget about a couple of players in Europe that are not eligible due to AUR’s selection policy). They have got a little breather after an intense and grueling season with (too) many learning experiences and results well under expectations.

I was among them who thought the Jaguares would reach the play-offs in their maiden season. That was very naive. Super Rugby is an extremely tough competition and I don’t agree with Steve Hansen who keeps on repeating that Test rugby is so much harder. Most sides – especially the Kiwi ones – would be very hard for any Test team to beat. Hypothetically, if the All Blacks played a full strength Hurricanes ten times, I reckon Hurricanes would at least win three times. And the Lions would most likely beat the Springboks six times out of ten.

On top of that there is a lot of logistics and preparation that needs extra fine tuning if you want to be competitive in Super Rugby. Now the Argies have their first Super Rugby season under their belt, they got themselves some time to recharge batteries, regroup and rethink some strategies. They have clear goal to win two out three matches in Europe this November. That looks very possible if they have learned from their lessons earlier this year. Even a clean sweep – which would include a victory over England – is within reach.

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England of course have no plans to lose to anybody anytime soon. They talk big about challenging the All Blacks, and so far the wheels have been turning in the right direction. In one way it easy to laugh at the English hubris – that always comes after a couple of promising wins – but this time I will not laugh until they have made a severe face plant. They look serious this time (and have amazing settings to be the king of the hill in the rugby world).

English rugby – union and clubs – are richer than anyone else and they are only getting richer. Overall English rugby is on the up with more young players getting into the game and higher attendances at club rugby matches. And that is no small feat considering how badly they performed in the last two World Cups (not exactly great PR).

There are also strong signs that the Poms have started to dominate youth rugby internationally and that can very well spill over to senior rugby very soon. Even if it is not clear cut (nothing ever is except death). The results of U20 World Cups the last five years can be a little deceptive, especially if we are listening carefully to some Kiwis in the know.

As I understand it, the talk in the Kiwi camp goes something like this: with younger players brawn can overpower skill but that disappears as juniors turn into seniors. The Kiwi U20s have better skills than anyone else and can always look forward to adding the strength and conditioning later. And upgrading strength and condition is a fairly straight forward and easy process.

However, up-skilling senior rugby players is extremely difficult and very time consuming (time that does not really exist at senior level). Hence, by the time the players reach maturity, the balance has swung back to the the All Blacks and away from the likes of England.

Summa summarum: unless there is a sea-change in English attitude towards junior rugby, that gap between England and New Zealand will never close.

I am not sure if I agree with the Kiwis on this one. It used to be true, but nowadays it seems there actually has been in a sea-change in the English attitude. The England U20s that have contested the last five U20s World Cups – and won four – have been almost entirely selected on skills and have nothing to do with the old hulk bulk strategy. Just watch them play – a lot of their games are on YouTube – and you will see they are every bit as skillful as any other team in the tournaments. .

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Mako and Billy Vunipola, Jamie George, Maro Itoje, George Kruis, George Ford, Owen Farrell, Jamie Joseph, Jack Nowell, Anthony Watson and Elliot Daly – to name a few – are all products of successful English U20s teams. To claim these players are all brawn and no brain or skills one have to be blind and sleep in an All Blacks pyjamas every night.

Could the reason that New Zealand has not done so well of late at U20 level be that England have now realized that rugby at this level is very helpful to the development of players and future internationals and therefore attached more importance to it? Or are the English just lucky to get an golden generation and the current dominance at junior level is just temporary?

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One person who for sure would agree that New Zealand got it all wrong about resent results in the U20s World Cups is Sir Clive Woodpecker. Not because he cares about the arguments, but because it seems he has a giant kiwi thorn in his side. I could not believe his tweet after Ireland’s win were he claimed that Kiwis are buying into the “myth about themselves as the top nation” and are now paying the price.

I know he led a brilliant English side to a World Cup victory and world domination for a couple of years. And no one can take that away from him. Well done Clive. But I wish I could cuddle him, sing him a lullaby and softly tell him about the hundred plus years of rugby history (outside 2001-2003). I am sorry Clive – and daddy loves you – but the world is unfair sometimes and it is no secret to anyone that the All Blacks are the team to beat and look up to. There is no myth, there is only truth there.

Maybe it was the 3-0 hammering of the dysfunctional and Clive-coached Lions 2005 that made him start hating New Zealand? That blackwash hurt his ego hard. From being knighted by the Queen and getting his feet kissed by the English rugby community to a loser in a couple of weeks.

Before that I don’t recall him being so bitter. I remember him as being very respectful and clear about the power of Southern Hemisphere rugby and the need to beat them regularly – home and away – if one wants to aspire to be number one.

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I wonder if Warren Gatland will walk down the same bitter “everything is New Zealand’s fault” route? Logic says no, because he is a Kiwi and he can only go so far bad mouthing his native country. After all, he is a product of the New Zealand rugby system. Logic also says that Gatland will have a better chance to not come home – with his tail between his legs after a 3-0 blackwash.

First of all, the Lions could possibly assemble one of their best squads ever. On the look of it, this Lions series could see the greatest amount of top players – All Blacks included – on field at the same time ever. It could almost be an All Star game (bar maybe a couple of players from Australia and South Africa). Secondly, there are rumors bouncing around that Maestro Schmidt will join the Lions coaching team in some capacity. Who knows, maybe the Lions will come with an entire Kiwi coaching team? Thirdly… nah lets not get ahead of ourselves too much. And we will for sure get back to the Lions again. Many many times.

What else do we have on menu this weekend? Georgia’s meeting with Japan in Tbilisi could be nice Test to watch. Romania against a full-strength USA in Bucharest does not sound too bad either. European minors Germany and Spain will entertain Uruguay and Tonga (it would be great for the game if Germany and Spain could step up one level and start pushing for places in the World Cup).

This weekend there will be an extra need for some creative planning about when and where to watch the Tests (YouTube will come in to play very handy). World Rugby together with the unions has once again managed to schedule kick off times so it is impossible to watch Springboks, Wallabies and All Blacks live at the same time unless you have three TV-screens. Why why why? How hard can it be? Why not spread out the Tests a little? Maybe play one Test on Friday night and one on Sunday afternoon?

Just to annoy rugby lovers a little extra, FIFA have a big World Cup qualifying round this weekend with games spread out from Thursday until Sunday, Brazil plays against Argentina on Thursday night. England plays against Scotland on Friday night and so on.

How hard can it be World Rugby? While FIFA can get it right – scheduling around 60 matches this weekend – World Rugby still have problems to schedule a handful of Tests.

Apart from rugby – and some football – I am super pumped for UFC 205 at Madsin Square Garden. I am actually a little surprised that Conor McGregor has been quiet about the miracle in Chicago, he rarely misses a chance to speak up the Irish. Anyway, Conor is my guy and I will support him all the way against Philadelphia’s Eddie Alvarez. Another MMA favourite of mine is Wonderboy Thompson. He will step into the cage against the relentless machine Tyron Woodley for a shot at the title. Overall UFC 205’s fight card is almost too stacked and every person who likes high level pro fighting is in for a fabulous treat.

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Have a nice weekend and let us all pretend that all the talk about Donald Trump getting elected president is just a bad dream.

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