It is the Duel in the Desert. It is the title showdown. It is the 2016 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
Nico Rosberg, looking to claim his first world championship, goes into the title showdown with a 12-point lead over his championship rival and teammate Lewis Hamilton, who is looking to claim his fourth world championship.
However, in the world of greater access to statistics, and finding possible omens that could give either Rosberg or Hamilton the advantage that they need to claim the 2016 Formula One World Championship, there are many.
For Nico Rosberg, he looking to join his father Keke as a Formula One World Champion, and if he achieves that, Keke and Nico Rosberg will become the second father and son to win world championships since Graham and Damon Hill achieved this feat.
Graham Hill won the first of his two world championships in 1962 (a year ending in a two), and Damon Hill won his only world championship in 1996 (a year ending in a six), a time-span of 34 years between father and son winning their first world championships.
Keke Rosberg won his only world championship in 1982 (a year ending in a two), and his son Nico Rosberg is attempting to win his first world championship this year in 2016 (a year ending in a six), a time-span of 34 years since Keke won his only world championship.
In addition, Nico Rosberg this year has completed a seven race winning streak, including winning the first four races of the season. In previous years, whenever a driver has completed a winning streak of four races, or has won the first three races of a season, they have gone to become the world champion in the year that they completed the winning streak.
However, that will change in 2016 in regards to whenever a driver has completed a winning streak of four races as both Rosberg and his teammate Lewis Hamilton have strung four race wins in a row during this season.
So will Nico emulate his father and become a Formula One World Champion?
With a 12-point advantage, he is definitely in the box seat.
However, he has a three-time Formula One World Champion lurking in the background, waiting to pounce on the slightest opportunity to claim his fourth world championship.
For Lewis Hamilton, he is looking to become the first British driver to win four world championships in a season where he has achieved some key successful milestones.
In 2016, Hamilton has claimed his 50th (Australia), and his 60th (Brazil) pole position of his career, as well as his 50th race victory of his career (United States) this year. When a driver has achieved any of these three major milestones, that particular driver has gone onto win the world championship in the season that they achieved that milestone.
However, for the first time in history, eight or nine victories in a season will not be good enough for a driver to win a Formula One World Championship. If Hamilton wins the last race of the season, there is the very likely possibility that ten race victories in a season may not be good enough for him to win a Formula One World Championship either, an amount that would be good enough for Rosberg to achieve his childhood dream.
However, the two times that a Formula One World Championship has been decided in Abu Dhabi, in 2010 and 2014, the winner of the grand prix has gone onto claim the world championship in each of those seasons.
However, it is important to note that the two times that Hamilton has started from pole position in Abu Dhabi (2009 and 2012), he has failed to finish the race.
In addition to this, the two times Hamilton has started the final race of a season from pole position, he has also failed to finish the race.
However, Hamilton will be confident he can end this strange bad streak after winning in Brazil for the first time last time out, and after winning the last three races, all from pole position.
So, what is the plan for both drivers at the final race of the season?
For Lewis Hamilton, the plan is simple. He must win the race, essentially putting together a perfect weekend, like he has during the previous three races, and hope that fate falls his way. He knows if the weekend and race goes to plan for every competitor in the grand prix, Nico Rosberg will become the champion, so he knows the pressure is off him, and barring mechanical failures/incidents, he can just concentrate on winning the race, but at the same time, be prepared for the worst, but at the same time, hoping for the best.
To me, Hamilton has accepted the very likely reality that he won’t win his fourth world championship in 2016, but is not willing to give up on that ambition. He is making every available post remaining a winning one to either devalue his teammate’s world championship success, or in the very unlikely possibility, add credibility to his fourth world championship success.
This is an achievement that would comfortably put Hamilton in the company of Alain Prost, Ayrton Senna and Michael Schumacher as a Formula One legend.
For Rosberg, if he gets a good start, and is behind his teammate after the early laps of the race, he has the option of being a little bit more circumspect, looking after the car and cruising to a comfortable podium finish, knowing that the speed of the car is quite capable of taking him to the podium without much effort, as long as he is starting from the front of the grid, generally a simple task.
However, if Rosberg happens to have either a poor start, is involved in an opening lap incident, starts way out of position, has a minor or major mechanical issue (not necessarily terminal), or a combination of these scenarios, it makes the task of achieving his first world championship incredibly difficult – assuming that everything is going to plan for his teammate.
Adding to the pressure of the situation for Rosberg is the weight of his family history, and the opportunity of adding to his family history. Will the pressure of aiming to emulate his father weigh on him? Will he be able to maintain the ruthless and defiant streak that he has shown throughout this year, or will he crack under the pressure of expectation?
As well as this, the changes in technical regulations for 2017, especially around the car’s aerodynamics and the tyres could change the pecking order of Formula One next year. Having turned 31 years of age in June this year, Rosberg is staring down the barrel of the potential possibility that this could be his final chance of winning his first Formula One World Championship. It is important not to forget this.
For Rosberg, the legacy of his career hangs on the result of this race. Failure to achieve his childhood dream would mean that despite his best efforts to prove that he is worthy of being a world champion, he would be considered to be, in the eyes of many, the best No.2 driver in Formula One history. It would be a shattering experience that he may struggle to overcome.
Success would mean a rare place in the record books, winning his first world champion, joining his father as a Formula One World Champion, and would have achieved this feat by defeating his teammate, a teammate who is a multiple world champion.
So, who will win the 2016 Formula One World Championship?
It is question that is very difficult to answer, especially in a year in sport where the underdogs have prevailed ahead of their more fancied rivals.
It is tough for me to establish whether Nico Rosberg, a man who is looking for his first world championship after finishing second to his teammate in the past two seasons, is the underdog.
Or whether the underdog is actually Lewis Hamilton, a three-time world champion who has suffered at various times throughout 2016 with car reliability and race start troubles, with his teammate has had a relatively clear route to the championship lead.
The key title permutations for Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton are as followed:
For Rosberg to become the 2016 Formula One World Champion:
1. If Rosberg wins the race.
2. If Rosberg finishes the race in second.
3. If Hamilton wins the race, Rosberg must finish third or higher.
4. If Hamilton finishes second, Rosberg must finish sixth or higher.
5. If Hamilton finishes third, Rosberg must finish eighth or higher.
6. If Hamilton finishes fourth or lower.
For Hamilton to become the 2016 Formula One World Champion:
1. If Hamilton wins the race, Rosberg must finish fourth or lower.
2. If Hamilton finishes second, Rosberg must finish seventh or lower.
3. If Hamilton finishes third, Rosberg must finish ninth or lower.
Overall, I believe that both Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton are both deserving of winning the 2016 Formula One World Championship. However, my gut feel for the 2016 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, and the title showdown, is something is going to happen to Rosberg, something negative.
I am not sure if it would involve anyone else, and I am not sure whether it would be enough to deny Rosberg his first world championship. However, when I think about it in my mind, I see Hamilton at the end of the race in the podium parc ferme area standing on top of his car waving a big British flag proudly.
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