Saturday Sure Things: Ascot and Eagle Farm preview

The Masters in Perth continues at Ascot this Saturday, highlighted by the Group l Winterbottom Stakes (1200m), where we will see a ripping clash between Group l winners Terravista and Malaguerra.

The support card looks strong, while the Summer Carnival in Brisbane heats up this Saturday at Eagle Farm with a couple of feature races. I’ll look at the key races on both programs.

I’ll start with the Winterbottom. To my eye, it is a race in two between the two Eastern State raiders, Terravista and Malaguerra, with a slight leaning towards Terravista. He wasn’t meant to be racing this Spring, but he was doing so well that he was brought back to work and resumed with an excellent down the straight on Oaks Day behind Redzel, getting held up a touch and that probably cost him the win. He comes here with fresh legs and draws to get the run of the race from the gate behind a genuine tempo.

Malaguerra does look the main threat but gee he is rock bottom odds. Credit where credit is due, he did in the Darley Classic, but Stevie Wonder could see he was somewhat of a lucky winner due to the lack of luck Spieth. Still, he avoided trouble and was there to be beaten 150m out but he kept finding the line. Getting boxed in at Ascot is a death wish, especially in a high pressure Group l, so he will have to punch up and lead, which will force him to do work. Still, he is a tough customer who loves a fight.

The best local chance is Vega Magic. He comes through the key lead up, the Colonel Reeves (1100m), where he sat wide no cover for the trip and Rock Magic came at the 200m mark to beat him, but he just kept surging under young Casey to get the job done. I don’t think anything from that race will turn the tables here, and he does draw to get the suck run behind Malaguerra.

The complete unknown is State Solicitor. He is a rising star for Team Williams who took an eternity to wind up when racing at the track/distance a fortnight back but he really surged the final 75m to get the job done. Gate 11 means Pike will have to drag him back and look for luck, but if they do indeed go hard in front, this is the swooper to watch for.

But for me it’s all about Terravista, ahead of Malaguerra, Vega Magic and State Solicitor.

The other key race on the program is the Tatts Cup (2100m) and I am sticking solid with Kia Ora Koutou. His effort in the Ascot Gold Cup (1800m) was very good I thought, hitting the line with purpose to run a close-up fifth to Tonto. Has more upside and a 2kg weight pull on that horse so I think he will turn the tables. Tonto does look the main threat. He really surged to win that race and won with a touch of class and quality, plus he is a proven weight carrier. Young Lionel is getting on in years but his effort in the same race was tidy and he draws to get a soft trip on the fence and look to ambush late. Also yet to miss a place in two attempts at the track/distance and ran a narrow third in this race last year.

Leaning towards Kia Ora Koutou, just, over Tonto, Young Lionel and Dark Alert.

The first feature race at Eagle Farm this Saturday is the Colin McAlpine AM Memorial Classic (1200m), a Listed event for the females and I think the Sydney-siders will dominate, and I am keen on a mare who looks specifically targeted for the race, Butterboom. Ran some really consistent races during the Winter in Sydney. Spelled and has been tuned up with a couple of very impressive trials. Draws a lovely gate, Colless steers – looks the one. Private Secretary has drawn the carpark but has a few lengths on these class wise. She went very close to pulling off a plunge on Derby Day when just missing out on picking up Sheidel. Thrown in at the weights and if they go hard, she’s the mare you want to be on. Best local chance appears to be Notonyourlife, who has been outstanding at her past two starts, resulting in a couple of sharp wins with a lethal turn of foot produced each time. She’s hard fit, up and running and is on her home track whereas her key rivals have had to travel several hours.

I’m all over Butterboom though, to beat Private Secretary, Notonyourlife and Elegant Composure.

The second and final feature on the program up north is the Recognition Stakes (1400m). I am prepared to take the gamble with the resuming Cylinder Beach, a quality animal for Desleigh Forster who has promised a fair bit and to an extent he has delivered, but has failed when he has taken on the elite level, as we saw during the Winter Carnival, but I will go on the guide of how well stablemate Too Good To Refuse has come back and I think Cylinder Beach is a several lengths better horse. Rudy was a real eye catcher when resuming last Wednesday night over 1400m at the Sunny Coast and he will love getting back to Eagle Farm, plus he is lethal when produced second up. If you want to include one at massive odds, it’s Craiglea Wandoo. Big weight and getting too far back beat him fresh, but keep in mind he did perform well behind Too Good To Refuse during the Carnival up here and ran a beauty during the Randwick Autumn Carnival.

Going with Cylinder Beach, over Rudy, Craiglea Wandoo and Hopfgarten.

Don’t forget to check twitter @AdamPage1991 for more tips right across the weekend.

Good luck and happy punting!