The Roar
The Roar

Advertisement

A watershed moment for Kirk Cousins

Roar Rookie
31st December, 2016
Advertisement
Kirk Cousins playing quarterback in the NFL for the Washington Redskins. By Keith Allison - Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0.
Roar Rookie
31st December, 2016
2

In a alternate universe far, far away, a TV commentator describes the on-field action.

TV commentator: So this is it for Washington, fourth and goal on the New England 5 yard line, six seconds on the clock, no timeouts left. Down by 5, this is already a 85-yard drive. Spread offense, empty backfield. Cousins in the shotgun. Playclock down to 3, gets the snap off, quick release, a fade to Reed… He caught it! He caught it! Washington win the Super Bowl! Cousins’ fourth touchdown, surely he’s the MVP!

Kirk Cousins is at a fork in the road right now. Washington still control their own playoff destiny this weekend against a Giants team who are already in the playoffs as the fifth seed in the NFC and who hope to escape the game without anyone getting injured or suspended.

At the end last season, Washington (having closed the book on the short-lived and wildly fluctuating Robert Griffin III era) were still not convinced on the long-term future of Cousins, and elected to place their franchise tag on him for $19.9m rather than sign him to a longer deal. A one year “prove-it”, if you will.

Robert Griffin III - NFL Draft second pick

It’s fair to say that Cousins hasn’t yet held up his end of the bargain. Washington only find themselves in the thick of the playoff talk at 8-6-1, but will qualify at the expense of the Green Bay-Detroit loser if they beat the Giants. And I guess this is where the argument over Cousins’ further remuneration at season’s-end begins. Do Washington feel comfortable paying top-dollar for a quarterback who – with an O-line who have excelled in pass-protection and an abundance of talent at the skill positions – has barely taken them over .500?

But let’s compare Cousins’ current situation to that of a similar quarterback from a few years ago – Joe Flacco of the Baltimore Ravens. Flacco was the Kirk Cousins that Kirk Cousins wants to be in the 2012 post-season. An off-contract quarterback who went on a run for the ages (11 touchdown/ 0 INT) in knockout games against the Colts in Baltimore, then on the road with huge wins against Peyton Manning in Denver (the ‘Mile-High Miracle’) and Tom Brady in New England, before overcoming a loaded 49ers team back when Colin Kaepernick was a thing in ‘The Blackout Game’ Super Bowl XLVII.

Advertisement

Winning the Super Bowl MVP only made his negotiating position stronger. Baltimore were subsequently caught in a very tough spot – a quarterback who was coming off a rookie contract trying to fit under a salary cap bogged down with a roster full of ageing veterans, but owners who still harboured further Super Bowl aspirations. Naturally Flacco got paid, and paid handsomely.

So what happens if Cousins goes on a tear and has the hottest five-game streak in the NFL? Leads Washington to a Super Bowl title? Well, it’s going to be a very expensive title for Washington. Akin to Flacco post-2012, Cousins will have all the leverage in the world. Flacco signed a six-year/$120m in the wake of his postseason run (which pushed Baltimore further into a salary-cap black hole given his contract’s heavily back-loaded nature, but that’s a discussion for another day).

Cousins will be looking for a similar slice of the pie, particularly with the salary cap predicted to rise to approximately $166m next year (currently $153.7m).

If Cousins plays well – and I mean *extremely* well – in the next five games, he will have job security for life. Washington (or another team) will be forced into paying probably a APY of $22-24m (Eli Manning/Carson Palmer $21m/year signed in 2015, Joe Flacco currently $22m/year following his restructure) for a quarterback who would have no shortage of suitors on the open market.

Attempting to backload the contract with higher guaranteed salaries akin to Baltimore to keep their title window open will only mean an inevitable contract restructure in 3-4 years time at the expense to Washington of added guaranteed years and no drop in average per year (APY) – a forced marriage.

Their alternative would be to apply the franchise tag again (1 year/$24m approx) but find themselves in the same position in 12 months’ time (along with a gleeful Cousins having just earnt $42m over two years and would consider this the absolute rock-bottom starting point of any future deal).

The fallout from “blowing-up” the position and letting Cousins walk would be unfathomable from a public relations perspective, more so if Cousins continues to play well at his new destination. That’s how general managers and coaches lose their jobs forever. Top-20 quarterbacks – and Cousins would certainly enter the discussion as a Super Bowl winner – just don’t hit the open market in their prime.

Advertisement

The alternate scenario is a bit more sobering; what if Washinton miss the playoffs, or are one-and-done? What is Cousins worth on the open market? Surely he’s worth more than Brock Osweiler (4/$72m), however it’s fair to say in hindsight (and indeed foresight) the Osweiler deal was beyond crazy (but you wouldn’t bet against a quarterback-desperate NY Jets, Cleveland Browns or Chicago Bears perhaps making a similar play if Cousins is on the street in March).

If you were a general manager, would you rather have Cousins or Jay Cutler (7/$126m)? Ryan Tannehill (4/$77m)? Or even Andy Dalton (6/$96m)? He is certainly not worth of membership to the “next tier” of Cam Newton (5/$103m) or Matt Ryan (5/$103m) money at this stage.

Cam Newton runs the ball.

His best hope in that case might be for a deal similar in structure and pricing to that of Dalton, especially with the Osweiler contract at the forefront of front office minds across the league. That’s somewhere around the five year/$18-19m APY mark (adjusted for the increased salary cap) but with perhaps only the first two years guaranteed.

It’s fair to say Cousins has a better audition tape than Osweiler, who famously played half a season before being benched again for Manning, and who has been benched again in Texas for Tom Savage ($600k/year) prior to the playoffs.

That leaves Washington with the flexibility to move on should Cousins prove mediocre, or downright awful, rather than turning into the scenario that has plagued Chicago in recent years, and that is plaguing Houston this very minute.

The upcoming game against the Giants is a Rubicon of sorts for Cousins. If he wants to prove he is a big-money quarterback, he’s going to need to come up big in the big games. His first is on Sunday at home.

Advertisement

If he plays his cards right, he’ll have a few more games to prove himself and his agent will have more ammunition on the negotiating table at season’s end.

close