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The Australian selectors sent a very clear message with the squad they selected for the four-Test series against India – a spin-heavy attack is on the cards.
With four mainline spinners – Nathan Lyon, Stephen O’Keefe, Ashton Agar and Mitchell Swepson – it’s likely Australia will field two specialist tweakers for the opening Test in Pune.
In the case that the visitors also play Glenn Maxwell, the Australian line-up would be flooded with spinners, a ploy perennially adopted by India.
There is then even the radical possibility that would Australia opt for three mainline spinners at the expense of either Mitchell Starc or Josh Hazlewood.
History reveals that in deploying spin-heavy sides on tours of India, bowling attacks lack potency. Wickets are few and far between, and runs rain.
By and large, the most successful bowlers to have visited India since the turn of the century have been pace bowlers.
Of all Australian bowlers to have completed a minimum of 60 overs in India in that time, quicks Glenn McGrath (19.90), Jason Gillespie (21.72) and James Pattinson (27.77) lay claim to the lowest averages.
These numbers stand in stark contrast to the inflated averages of spinners Shane Warne and Nathan Lyon.
In England’s record books, paceman Matthew Hoggard (23.31) leads the way by a significant margin. The burly quick boasts a much more impressive average in India than finger-spinners Graeme Swann, Ashley Giles and Monty Panesar.
The trend doesn’t stop there.
The most successful Kiwis stand as pacemen Daryl Tuffey (28.87), Tim Southee (29.66), Chris Martin (38.30), Trent Boult (38.66), Neil Wagner (39.20) and Matt Henry (42.33).
The averages of the last four are far from flash, but they eclipse that of left-arm orthodox bowler Daniel Vettori.
Left-arm quick Chaminda Vaas (23.14) is Sri Lanka’s most successful, well ahead of spin-wizard Muttiah Muralitharan and veteran off-spinner Rangana Herath.
Hailing from the Carribean, fast bowlers Mervyn Dillon (25) and Ravi Rampaul (28.62) top the West Indian crop. Off-spinner Shane Shillingford and leg-spinner Devendra Bishoo have considerably lower averages.
For South Africa, wrist-spinner Imran Tahir (21.35) has found the most success. Admittedly, the Proteas have historically lacked quality spinners, particularly since the departure of acrobatic left-arm chinaman bowler Paul Adams. Nonetheless, the next three best averages belong to quicks Dale Steyn (21.38), Makhaya Ntini (27.77) and Morne Morkel (32.28), whose numbers easily eclipse those of finger-spinner Paul Harris in India.
A delve into the statistics of 21st century Indian bowlers plying their trades at home reveals a much different story.
Of the top ten Indian bowlers by average to have completed a minimum of 60 overs at home, a mere two are pacemen.
Left-arm orthodox spinner Ravindra Jadeja (19.93) has the lowest average, followed by finger-spinners Murali Kartik (21.42) and Ravi Ashwin (21.90). These numbers are far superior to those of quicks Mohammed Shami, Zaheer Khan and Irfan Pathan.
At the core of what these numbers reflect is that India’s batsmen are not troubled by the turning ball on home decks. They are groomed from early boyhood on low, slow, turning wickets, a fact that the records of visiting spinners bare.
Visiting pace bowlers are superior to that of spinners, primarily for the simple reason that they do not bowl spin. Despite bowling on turning wickets, a visiting tweaker is often brought undone by the lithe footwork and adept sweep shot of Indian batsmen.
On the contrary, these statistics show that it is of great advantage for India to flood its bowling attack with spinners. Tormenting visiting batsmen far inferior against the turning ball on Indian dust bowls has long been a recipe for success for the subcontinental powerhouse.
Visiting pace bowlers have also reaped greater rewards in India as a result of both conventional and reverse swing.
Given that Indian batsmen are so adept against spin, coupled with the fact that Indian wickets offer very little pace and bounce, swing is an imperative cog in any visiting party’s wheel.
Reverse swing can serve as a particularly strong weapon because the ball begins to reverse earlier on the subcontinent due to the fact that the dry, rough wickets lead to a quicker deterioration of the rough side of the ball.
Australia never fielded more than one mainline spinner in their last Border-Gavaskar series victory in India, the 2-1 win in 2004. Shane Warne was the spinner of choice in the first three Tests, before Nathan Hauritz took hold of the reigns in the fourth.
The three quicks in all four Tests were McGrath, Gillespie and Michael Kasprowicz, whose swing – particularly in the form of reverse – played pivotal roles.
The series victory not only stands as Australia’s most recent in India, but was also its first since the 2-1 win in 1959-60.
Considering his unique ability to swing the ball both ways and extract reverse swing, the non-selection of South Australian Chadd Sayers at the expense of a litany of innocuous spinners is a concern.
Despite playing 51 of his 104 Tests on the subcontinental countries of Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh – where there is little offering of pace or bounce – Pakistani quick Wasim Akram finished with an exceptional career average of 23.62.
Considered the greatest left-arm bowler of all-time, Akram averaged 27.70 in India, 22.22 in Pakistan, 20.43 in Sri Lanka and 16.60 in Bangladesh.
With little to no assistance from neither pace nor bounce on Asian decks, Akram’s expert swing made him a force to be reckoned with. The same was the case for fellow spearhead Waqar Younis, who averaged an extraordinary 20.64 in Asia.
Australia’s selectors could have taken a leaf out of the tortoise’s book, who ran its own race to beat the hare.
Instead, however, the visitors look likely to attempt to beat India at their own game. It really would take a brave punt to predict a reverse of Australia’s ugly record in India.
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