Behind the barriers: Five bets for the weekend

Even allowing for the wide barrier GO ARREVIDICI was a major disappointment, really failed to run on at all. Still I may follow it again as its efforts in this race were a bit of a mystery.

Good to have you back Andrew :)

MV 2 - Aurora glow had no luck first up (deju view since won again) and then won well 2nd up really hitting the line hard. Horse she beat 2nd romped home last night at pak in BM70. The 2nd up win was in BM78 and this is same grade of race. maps for a perfect run with 2, 4 and 6 all likely to push forward. Can envisage her sitting probably 5th one off the rail and able to make a move into the race and build momentum on the camber bend with rail true. 1600m no worries for her and should be ready to peak now 3rd up. the valley cushion should be perfect with any give, noting prior form. sure, la speciale was unlucky last start (or cost itself missing the start) , but it will likely get crossed from gate 1 and be stuck behind some $20 shots (2 and 4) who I give little hope to. If Williams chooses to lead on la speciale then 2 and 4 will make it work. Either way, there is an element risk about la special (who is the only danger) enough to shimmy me away from taking $2.5 or so, and im confident aurora glow will run well. at worst, she is a very safe ew bet. Ill be backing her to win, but have to place in multis ($2.0 to place at present in a field of 8 is gift) and an exacta with the fave to beat her. keen to invest in this race along these varied lines. 3 – with wheal leisure here and confidently so. This is a BM78 in name only. Top rater is BM64. Most of these come of maidens or just out of maiden company. There is very little form above BM64 grade. Wheal leisure was a super run last start and clearly comes through the strongest form ref into this race. croc rock has obv since won, but several others from that race have performed well since, enough for me to very comfortable to consider that it was a genuine BM70 race class wise, if not higher. BM70 as a minimum. It was also against older horses. Drops back to 3yo race here and down in class. Of course, who is to say the other progressive types might be able to make a similar juncture, and that is the poser for this race. they might. But we know wheal leisure can. It would take a horse of BM78 or better quality to knock off it, assuming it runs up to its last run (if anything I expect it to improve). I think the market is a bit wrong here. the 2 and the 8 are both big unders at present. The other filly blue ocean is the main danger. 4 – just a slight word of caution against burning front. Won well last start, but had a dream run and a claim, and wasn’t overly impressive, hard to scrap for it. not sure id be jumping in at $1.80. don’t think he is going as well as last prep. hard call has to turn it around from this clash in nov, but don’t place too much weight on that as think he is a ‘different horse’ since the blinkers went on. Id mark them a fair closer together in the market. Say $2.40 burning front. $3.50 hard call. so burning front still fave, but not quite as pronounced as present odds indicate. 5 – small ew bet on see what I bring who found a race of little tempo last time which didn’t suit. His first up run was indicative of having come back well. excused 2nd up in a leader dominated affair. But I think these tight turning track suit him, as also evidence by numerous of his bush wins on tight track and a genuinely run mile is his best go. He should get a good run with a likely strong speed battle up front from 4, 5, 7 and 9, with blinkers first time the 3 (some of which will prob take a sit). A few of the stayers will be right out the back. So he should be able to find a nice spot. No good thing, but can easily see him pinging home hard last 300m with light weight. 7 – runsati goes well at the valley and best distance is 1000m. goes well for meech and draws to find the front or sit outside the leader, or allow Sunday escape to cross it. either way, its get a good interference free run here. very even race despite the contrasting formlines, but like runsati in these circumstances when kept fresh and its last run down the straight was in stronger grade with positive formlines emerging relative to this lesser grade of race. similar to race 5, no good thing, but worth an ew bet at $9. Royal spinner is outsider of the field, but goes in quads, easy local kill last time, strong tempo should suit him and recent form around smart dart and gun case def good enough for this grade, despite being outside of field. 8 – rock’n’gold has talent, but have been frustrated why he has been held back to 1000m to all prep, when best form is 1200m. im sure they have their reasons. Finally stretches out to the 1200m. in the 1000m races the early speed is just a bit too much for him and gets off the bit chasing a long way, but keeps closing, hence why you see a lot of 3rd, 4th and 5th placings. But out to 1200m, from good draw, I reckon he sits right on the back keivenn and don’t see a lot of early pressure in this race. 3rd the rails when fence true position at MV often not best spot, so accept banking on bit of luck, but reckon kievann is going well enough (esp with easy lead) to ensure leaders not gobbled up by the turn, and breaks typically present given sharp bend. 9 – amerstria should be winning her 2nd up. no hope first up with such slow tempo up front and conservative ride, not so much cos it sat wide, but cos it was too far back. Horse ran well. should be ridden more forward and strikes a stronger tempo race. towelled up the 2nd fave cheeky babe last prep when they clashed and meets its better at weights for doing so. Most of these have found their mark. She has a super prep in the spring, culimating with getting within 1.3l of shiedel only receving 1kg from it (mossing around well back that day) and that is superior form to all rivals here. Bris Letrecote been in good form all summer, but his best runs are def when damian browne is in saddle. Last start ventured to gold coast, browne off and up to 1800m. meets a similar field here, but much better suited back to the mile for mine and browne will give it a plum ride from inside draw, reckon it can bounce back to its winning form on. ADL Big effort always a horse of some ability and scored an arrogant first up win covering ground and doing it easy. stepped up to 1200m 2nd up and didn’t quite see it out. That was a good form race too, with strategic demand winning again in stronger grade. Like him freshened up and back to 1000m and down in grade, a deserved fave and clear top pick from inside draw gets every hope. Brockoff continues to be a good horse to bet against and is usually fat in the market, so pleased to see him engaged, beefing up the price of big effort. Refectory goes to ADL for the dodgy laming stable. they don’t venture to SA often, but do travel their horses well. in short, the SA stayers are no good. weir pillages their modest staying races most weekends and has done for some time. the locals are all very known commodities, average horses, not much between them. you can draw a line with the beaten margin of tunes behind annus mirrabilus to that of refectory. Of course, refectory conceded weight that day and was only 2nd up. so, even his 2nd up run is comparable to that of the SA locals. But, I think you can reasonably expect improvement from refectory 3rd up being a stayer getting fitter. His form last prep is panels above these and he has a fair string of legit melb 78/84 grade type of form in his last few preps that make him awfully hard to beat here. great value at $9. Go arrevidici resumes for new stable in modest BM64 race and mcevoy has a good record with NSW recruits to his stable in recent years over in SA. Impressive trial win when showed speed and won in quickest time of the day. Was a good trial too with riziz a good barometer and the 3rd horse winning on wed. evil dreams the saver as had no luck 2 runs back and then ran well in much stronger last time against an in form duo. Best: Auraora Glow, Rock’n’Gold, Amerstria, Big Effort.

I trust the Valley far more than Flemington at present... Very few winners coming on out wide in 1400 or longer there. The straight is a total gamble. Who's gonna be in the right part of track or lane? I've had one bet there in 15 months,, and no joy. But until the track improves I've sacked the track. Sandown hillside gives most runners an even break,, a tad leaderish last Wednesday, but mostly very good.?

Hope you go a well as last week mate-well done,keep up the good work!

Good luck with those Adam. Far be it for me to diss any of your selections ...but (and there's always a but) the only thing that could trip you up is a race track called Moonee Valley ....its just not a fair track and I can't bet there unless WINX is racing in a Cox Plate ! Youv'e got two brilliant tracks in Melbourne that usually race pretty fair and you know which two they are !

Could be looking at quite a track downgrade at the valley. Have to agree with you about Wheal leisure being unders, 3yos all stepping up in distance, rail true can suit on pacers as well. He looks a promising type &; the formlines through the Gervais race, have made it reliable. But he will settle back and present price is poor . He may drift if track plays to the ones up front on day. R9 The mares race looks a good betting race. Andrassy has had a good freshen after a long stint, when form tapered off. Good first up, she should race handy & looks around a 9$ shot ... Shorter if track improves as day progresses. Amerastralia is the spruik horse, punters love backing this horse into favouritism. Often a costly exercise, now she's worked through her classes. She's definatley a handy Mare, but she's hardly bomb proof at the 1200. She's likely to receive a good run. But there is the sniff punters want thier money back from her last run. For mine she's a $2.75 chance. Any less in this Mares race is just lousy value. Good luck punters.