Behind the barriers: Five bets for Australia Day

Not a bad day andrew,cheers.

Give em strength-cheers Andrew.

MV 5 – dance with fontein beat two key rivals here a few runs back. Stable have been doing really well in the MV 955/1000m races this summer. Since then she has tried her luck against the males in what I consider to be stronger races. Top run at sand in strong race (winner won again, rich charm won yday, Prussian vixen and Kentucky flyer all winners from that race). no luck at caul last start when gate 1 no favours in a swooper dominated and messy race. tucks in behind Williams who will be forced to lead here, so confident she wont be 3 pairs back the rails. Just a question of whether she can get a split turning, as she has the short sharp sprint to beat these if so. All about luck in running really, but happy to take the punt she gets a gap. 7 – chetwood is a horse I have spruiked for a while and tipped all runs here last spring and is in my top bracket of horses to follow in 2017. This is a good test for him as the two main market dangers are good barometers. Consistent high class horses. But they are certainly beatable. If chetwood is to progress to the G1 level I think he can/will, he needs to knock this duo off, and I think he will. Nothing more satisfying in racing in my view than spotting one early and following it through rises in a both a financial sense but also just self vindication of your initial opinion. I get plenty wrong like this, but its good when you get one right. Chetwood well on the path, this is the prep he moves from picking off easy races to mixing with the elite. Certainly think bart is vulnerable here first up. was trained with sprinting races in mind last autumn when went well in Newmarket fresh. In spring, he resumed at 1400m and won the memsie, which turned out to be an awful form race (rising romance and mahuta were in his wake). For those having a quad tonight, id suggest including crime fighter in the 6th, fitter for 2 runs back and was a fast run race last time, drops in class big time, likes to swoop (rail true suits) and twice a winner at MV. And include the toppy just got lucky in the last fresh up being a winner this circuit, several negatives about the two faves here for mine. FLEM 2 – quite keen on the QLD visitor in cruising speed who is very well graded to take an otherwise moderate/average/even bunch of mares who all have very exposed formlines. Good to see john meager back in melb with a horse, he is a rare visitor these days, but surely isn’t just coming for the fun of it, and no doubt think she measure up to some upcoming stakes races for mares, noting its been freshened up here but tuned up with a trail. And he is entitled to hold this opinion given its most recent runs behind Ravi and private secretary (either of these would be odds on here given their form over the spring carnival around shiedel and silent sedition, noting priv sec won the magic millions day too). those runs it was not only poorly weighted, but both were on wet tracks. Its overall dry track record is very hard to fault. Its only dry track defeat being over 1000m on debut. Well drawn and sufficient speed to use inside gate, race fit, likes it dry, in form jockey, astute trainer, moderate race… im pretty keen. im surprised she has come up $7.50. I’d mark her much shorter. In fact, I think she should be fave, at about $4 or so, in an open race. certainly happy to risk deja blue who had dream run last time and jumps 4kgs and draws wide. diamond baroness won easy last time and deserved danger, but well found, given its basically BM70-78 form. 4 – hokkadio is going to win a race this prep at a decent price and I want to be on when it does, but just not sure it will be this sat conceding 5kgs to the in-form, progressive portman who lines up for danny Obrien (whose horses always run better at Flem). Drops 6kgs from its last run when worked hard and just nabbed late by one who had a smother and got a gap through. Step up to 1600m seems ideal and reckon it can go one better here. 7 – hellbent is too short, but reckon he will drift. Should really be winning this. suspect oak plate is the target race, and I doubt he is too fat and over-done or not fit enough for a 1000m. gets on 0.5kgs over limit weight, so perfectly graded. those above it. toppy cant give it 8kgs and beat it for mine, even if it returned to its best form when with moody, tivaci is basically having a barrier trial and not over 1000m, all of Churchill dancers wins at 1200m. Those below him cant beat him at the weights, the only proviso is the 3yo, who whilst poorly hcp, is not nomed for aust guin, but is for Newmarket, suggesting weir is training it as a sprinter. Solid win bet hellbent. small exacta saver el divino to win hellbent for 2nd if some late money comes from el divino. 8 – dubio won against the bias on ballarat cup day, but the impressive thing to me was he showed he has another dimension to his racing style, that he doesn’t need to get too far back, which is good. no doubt his best form is at flem (be it 1200m or 1400m) and I think he looks very well graded here, and like the engagement of hall who is hungry after a spell with carnival time looming and has won it prior. Finds a race with strong enough tempo up front, but from his gate reckon he can slot 6th or so in the run, not right out the back 9 – battlecamp is an intruiging horse. Always in the market, but not winning. Was entered for the cups in the spring, very ambitious, but it atleast shows you he is going to be a staying type. of course, he is by shocking from a zabeel mare. Ive found it hard to fathom why he has been so short in the market in 1200-1400m races. In fact, I have done well betting against him. I did jump on last start, up to the mile, but gee, it was an awful ride from craig Williams. I just want to see what this horse can produce, when out to a trip, and given a clear run, on a big track. We get all those things on sat. massively under the odds (as he always is), given a BM64 horse in a BM84 race. . He surely drifts. If he gets to $6 or so, I will have a decent ew bet. Adl 3 – Strategic diamond is flying this prep, the margin often belying the authority of the wins. All 3 wins have been this track and trip, and no reason he wont make it 4 from 4. Rises in class, drops in weight. But the class that enables the weight drop is an old boy in riziz who is stuck in the system with no where go. Not good enough to compete at higher level, weighted out of it in lower class and vulnerable to the up and comer. Riziz’s jockey is 2 winners last 40 rides. Lindopp is riding a double just about every sat at present and won on strategic diamond all 3 runs this prep. Add to that chivalry is occupying 30% of the market who is a total cat, and even though he is $2.10, I think he is a great betting opportunity. He has been well backed all 3 wins this prep, so there are plenty of punters who are likely to line up for more. Best: cruising speed to win cruising speed (place) into strategic diamond (win) = $4.80. next: chetwood

The Australia Stakes looks a race with runners well and truly found in the betting, most just poor odds.. But a runner in a nine horse race with the plenty more upside is Peacock. At odds around 21$ this horse should settle up front and give a great sight. At the each way with just nine runners,, its more like an $8 chance. Gervais in the last, Saturday, has been over the 1800 before, ridden by an apprentice,,, far more mature now,, winning form is good form,, had a little freshen,,will sit up forward with no weight $7 chance for mine. I said I'd take a break from flem until it races better, but Gervais maps too well not get involved. Good luck punters.

Good luck on your selections Adam. Only interest in r4 the fillies 2yo, as the majority of fields today at Caufield are quite small, which can throw up odd results. Agree about Tulip. Impressive round a bend, so will quinella with Spoils,,, it looks overs for mine at the $9. Good luck punters.