Behind the barriers: Five bets for the weekend

Well done mate.

off to a good start at the valley johny with a few winners.

Always enjoy ur contrubutions Razzar cheers & good luck to u mate.

The Hobart Cup over 2400 mtrs looks a reasonable betting race. Big Duke won with ease in weaker race last start,, is stepping up to the 2400 first time. Going through grades like a horse going somewhere. But a little more pressure here as its at the 2100, the whips start cracking. Having not won at or run the 2400,, for me it would be crazy to bet odds on for this runner, as he stands now. He's a reasonable bet at $2.50 (40% chance ) but less for mine is unders. Cool Chap has been up a while, now a little better a the weights against Big Duke. But turning the tables still could be hard. $5 rating Lucky Lucky Lucky is now 4th up and improving with each run. He's now 7, but proven over the distance. Do like Luke Currie going on. He doesn't get bags of rides these days, but he often makes the most of them $11 rating. Once again; good luck punters.

Thanks Andrew-love your work,I'll play all your Caulfield selections in a few multis.

Mv 3 – kiss me ketut not the worst just cos of how it maps. Rail out 4m can often suit on pacers, she is hard and fit and in good form, and gave a good sight last start in a decent quality mares race when leading. Drop back in distance suits. Cant see anything else taking it on in front. Light weight and can wind it up from 600m and may just be hard to run down. No good thing, but an early dabble at $13 in the 7:30pm race. 5 – punt club was just nabbed last stride in similar event here last week when hard to work hard from wide draw. Jumped best, got 1 length clear, but just not quite enough to cross and lead. Inside horse who kicked up to hold him out ended up running last. other swoopers in the finish, he was only on pacer. Brave run. slightly stronger here, but drops in weight, but gets the good draw this time, and can use his good early to lead easily. prior form around rocket tommy, leodoro def up to BM78 grade, even though coming through BM70 races. 7 – this race is all about. Can hale soriona give Kawabata 7kgs and beat it ? I’ll err Kawabata, esp at the ew odds on offer. There is a deep gulf in the weights here with top 3 not claming and several in with 53kgs with a claim. Don’t think there was great depth to the bagot this year (although concede winner can go on with it) so not overstating that run. sorianos last run was pretty good and is the legit benchmark for this race to work around and weir knocks up winning these staying races, esp with imports, and out to 3000m no worries. Kawabata has had 2 goes at the 2400m after lots of racing at 2000m, and run very well both times. Its form ties in quite favourable with Soriano via oncidium ruler. Its last run behind crocodile rock was very good, hitting line hard. 3000m surely suits off that. Form from that race already working out with sweet melody winning wed. in short, with the stayers this summer, aint big gap between them and several able to juncture from lower grade races (another example being cry if I want to who ran 4th in bagot beating Soriano, but then ran 4th to croc rock alongside Kawabata at sand). 8 -Tigidig goes around in the last. but I actually seriously like him tonight. Very well placed off the freshen up. strikes a modest race here. easily beat the 2nd fave last start and meets it better at weights for doing so. Others have inferior formlines to exclusive heights that intertwine . Gate 4 perfect, has sufficient speed to lead or sit 2nd or 3rd. gets a perfect run either way. Most consistent horse, as his overall record suggest. Both his valley runs have been very good. two most recent runs with beau mertens in saddle have been career bests. Race drops away pretty quickly to those with BM58 form. tigidig has legit BM64/70 form and consistent. Happy to risk the 3yo in rocknroll rock at its current price who dropped back from 1600 to 1400 and now to 1200m and typically gets back in its runs and only win was over non-winner armgeddon on it over 1300m swopping. I’ll backing tigidig to win. but also have him in a place multi. Very hard to see him not running top 3. Tigidig to place probably as safe a $1.7 chance for multi’s you will get all week. hard to make a case that 3 others finish in front of tigidig. Caul 1 – small ew bet tessabelle. No doubt zacorsecss was impressive in similar race last time. but goes up 4kgs, stays at a mile, and from outside draw drops back to last. got a sweet run through the field last time. but you are basically taking short price she can circle the field this time. I don’t like taking $2.50 on a horse to come from last and circle the field. no doubt she is best horse in the race. put this over 2000m at flem from a middle gate, id happily back her at $1.80. tessabelle was unlucky last start, and MV is very much a momentum track. she was stuck inside zacorces in the run and behind the weakening la speciale and was going back and under double wraps as others were working into race. hit the line well. prior form not exceptional, but had no luck at flem wide no cover prior. 2 – dead against dodging bulletts tomorrow. Reckon he will drift big time. glad to finally get a win out of him. but time for us to shake hands and part ways – atleast for now. hursely was super run last time when only 2nd up behind smart duo who run Hobart cup, drops in weight, extra fitness, goes well for Williams, good caul form. not many negatives. Would have been a total moral, if not for fact lllyod has 2 runners in the race, and well documented my respect for his stable, esp his runners 2nd up often improve sharply when fitter and out to staying trip. With hursely all the same though. 3 – with llyod here and keenly so. Out to the 2400m for chance to dance really suits (not far off in a metrop), and like the 7 day back up. should be cherry ripe for a peak run. a bit of $3.20 still available. I mark it about $2.60. it’s a dual scenario case of liking it, but not liking its opponents. Big memory good reliable stayer who will run well, but have to doubt him fitness wise, and hasn’t won for ages. Still my 2nd pick though. market is over emphasising oncidium ruler wide run last time, was a weak race all the same, bunched finish. BM70 grade level (ie, those in r7 at MV tonight) 6 – cool snitzel looked smart 3yo when with moody last summer. Form dropped in its prep subsequent with weir. Now with brideoke who has done good job with several ex moody horses. Small leap of faith as you are basically wiping form from its last prep and going off its prep prior (and both those runs were on wet tracks). But as with these BM78 races on sat cards, most of these have found there mark. This is a horse who can still progress. This is esp the case when look at its form around heatherly. It also put in a huge run on boxing day behind golden spin (big weight and wide draw) and chase the horizon (either of them would be fave here). happy to speculate it can come back well as a 4yo at $5.50 or so. 8 – fatinaah ‘should’ win. the rest all have very exposed and intertwined form. fatinahh towelled up Sunday escape on caul cup in a legit form line. 60kgs and wide draw no worries. Just query how forward it is, as its best form is down the straight, and suspect it Newmarket bound, and this is just a warm up. still, could well be the case and still win. bear in mind several with 54kgs are mares, so really only 4kgs diff. I wont be totally unloading on it, but couldn’t tip you into anything else. 9 – duke of Brunswick a much tipped horse by me. A bit flat 2nd up. had 5 weeks off,much better last start, in a strong race. drops in grade here, but stays on limit weight. Should be fully peak fitness now. draws perfectly. A lot of ticks. This is the race he ‘needs’ to win. final piece of jigsaw for me is the strong tempo, as he can over-race in slow run affairs, and either/or show a star, great esteem, longeron should roll along here. several in race are stayers resuming, so he just lands into a plum spot. Adironiack ‘could’ beat it (prob my saver bet if alive in quad), but duke much more reliable to do so. ADL 3 – arleight ran really fast time resuming to score maiden win at first run back from spell. That was also its first go on dry track. maiden wins can often be fools gold in terms of looking impressive, but im thinking this win has substance. Accept 2nd horse since beaten, but it had no luck last sat from wide draw. The gulf between maiden and BM70 for a 3yo in ADL in the off season isn’t a great deal. Several examples of this in same race. 8- viceroy was beaten by smart horse from kav yard last start in a decent race where form is already working out via Labuan star last evening. no start agamonst its rivals. Smart state switch by mevoy to get a win on the board for it. strikes a race where form is all very exposed and intertwined (mostly losing form behind strategic demand – which is decent form). but I think there is some good depth to viceroys recent melb to suggest it can take this out from ideal draw, and back to 1200m suits. Best: chance to dance, duke of Brunswick Tigidig shant miss top 3.

Looks a rather unenthralling meeting. Like r1 though. The 1600 mares looks an excellent betting race. Miss hit and a Bit does come through a strong race where she had little luck. She should be up forward here out of trouble and should be very tough to run down. $4 rating Zarsorceres is hitting top form right now, and her last win appeared explosive with a withering burst to win. But this is stronger & her win may have been flatered by the high tempo produced up front by two runners. She may also now be looking for a little further. She definately has upside. But she will settle back in a likely more moderate tempo. $5 rating for mine. Must check out that Tassie race with the Dude Adam and good luck on your selections. Good luck punters.