There were several near misses last weekend, with D’Beak and Junction missing out on the top three, whereas Jennifer Lynn had no luck and Chautauqua was enormous against the tempo. Here’s hoping this Saturday improves. Here are my five bets for the weekend.
Bet 1: Win – Moonee Valley race four – number 2, Lady Esprit
I’m pretty confident we can get the weekend off on the right note courtesy of this mare, who looks just so well placed. She comes off a last start Stakes run at Caulfield where she was very unlucky not to finish closer and indeed win the race, getting badly held up when appearing to have plenty to offer. She’s back to her favourite track now and draws outside two speed runners, so she should get the box seat and, all things being equal, will be winning.
Bet 2: Each Way – Flemington race six – number 6, Inside Agent
I’m keen to butter up on this three year old. He resumed in the Manfred (1200m) at Caulfield two weeks ago and it just confirmed my belief that he isn’t a Caulfield horse. He handled the turn poorly and just couldn’t get going at all. He’s back on his home track now and he saved his best for here during the spring. Draws to get very good three-wide cover and ambush, plus Bowman is back on. Each way all day for mine.
Bet 3: Each Way – Rosehill race eight – number 7, Sofin
Gee, I think this mare is a great each-way play for mine. She looked a tragedy when beaten first up in the Coffs Harbour Cup before going to the Belle of the Turf at Gosford, where it was a dynamite leaders track that afternoon, and for a mare who is a get-back type, she really had no hope – but she did very well to get as close as she did. Her two runs at Rosehill during the spring have turned out to be strong form references, and up to 1900 metres is ideal here – plus the speed in front of her will be very strong.
Bet 4: Win – Eagle Farm race three – number 2, Upstart Pride
Looks one of the better bets on the Eagle Farm card. He ran over the 1200 metres at Eagle Farm two weeks back, when he carved over to lead at a good speed and looked in control of the race before giving a really good kick, but he was nabbed late by Divine Service. I really like the booking of Jeff Lloyd, and drawn wide, so he should carve over again and prove tough to run down. Keen.
Bet 5: All-Up Win – She Will Reign (Rosehill R5), Duke Of Brunswick (Flemington R2), Smart Dart (Flemington R3)
She Will Reign looks the clear horse to beat in the Silver Slipper. The forecast is for heavy rain, but that won’t matter to her given she bolted up in the Nursery on a wet track. I’m happy that I got $2.20 for her. She should be a $1.30 to $1.40 chance. Duke Of Brunswick looks a good thing on paper. He ran the 1400 metres right out last start at Caulfield, and though the Flemington 1400 metre is a different beast, he just has no opposition with the exception of perhaps Charlie Boy. Smart Dart ran second in that race, and he isn’t a 1400 metre kind of horse, so back to 1200 metre in the next race and drawn wide to get clear running should see him win.
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