She Will Reign just fits the criteria of the ideal two-year-old. She has speed, precociousness, a turn of foot, the looks, and the form on the board.
But will the Golden Slipper fit her? My answer to that is no.
The Gary Portelli-trained filly will resume this Saturday in the Silver Slipper (1100m) at Rosehill, and she really should put them away based on what she has done on race day and what she did in a recent trial win, where she ran nearly two seconds quicker than group one winner English. That’s all well and good, but we have seen on so many occasions that the different beast that is the 1200 metres of the high-pressure Golden Slipper bring speed horses undone.
You don’t have to look back far to see that when speed horses are extended out of their comfort zone for the first time, they fail. Case in point being Winning Rupert. He was touted as a future group one winner and the next big thing in Australian racing behind Winx. That was off the back of three wins against nothing on fast tracks.
His big test was the Magic Millions Guineas over 1400 metres – the first time against the big boys and girls and at 1400 metre race. He had every chance in the run and didn’t see it out. Later he was found to have had a bone chip, but that can’t be used as an excuse because many horses can win with that – for example, Winx in the Doncaster. He is now at stud having achieved a great deal.
She Will Reign will face six rivals, five of which look a level or two below. The two threats to her form-wise are Veranillo and Khan. Veranillo is two from two, but has beaten nothing, whereas Team Snowden has stated openly that Khan is nowhere near ready to perform first up. Based on this, it should be a walk in the park for She Will Reign. She should bolt in, and then her current price of $6 for the Golden Slipper will probably trim down to $4.50, or even shorter depending on the margin and the ease.
If that is the case, then at this stage of betting before the Golden Slipper that makes her a better proposition for the race than Pierro, Overreach and Sebring – yet she is not as good as any from that trio.
The big issue, though, is 1200 metres. Will she run it out strongly?
The Golden Slipper is one of the most brutal 1200-metre races in the world given the big field, the history and the pressure associated with it. She Will Reign is yet to have pressure applied to her and is yet to be given full rein, so there could be enough underneath the hood.
But speed doesn’t necessarily mean you have the Slipper. The same thing was said about the likes of Headwater, Earthquake and Samaready, to name a few.
She may win the Golden Slipper, but in terms of a betting proposition, I am happy to look elsewhere. She can win without me.
Adam Page
Roar Guru
Hmm...
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
Cheers :)
Graham Bruton
Guest
Save your money Johny and just treasure that ticket in your top draw thats says .... Golden Slipper all in market She Will Reign $9.00 as thats the ticket you will be cashing mate. Pinch of salt ....squeeze of lemon ...maybe a very cold Giesen Reisling and you will be in heaven Johny ....toasting SWR,
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
With a squeeze of lemon & a pinch of salt!
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
Shhhhhhhh Adam-I haven't got on yet :)
Adam Page
Roar Guru
I've said for a while on here that I like Trekking and his trial this morning was outstanding. And good horses have won despite bone chips. It had an impact yes, of course, but not to the extent of winning/losing.
Casper
Guest
Jury is out at the moment but I get the feeling something will come along to test her. Think you are harsh on Winnng Rupert, viewing that race at the Gold Coast, I think the bone chips certainly had an impact on how he failed to sprint when he got upside with global glamour.
Addington
Guest
Blue cod please Adam ....lightly dusted in flour and pan fried ....YUM.
Adam Page
Roar Guru
She does have speed. That is her key weapon. As I have said, she beat nothing on Saturday, and you can't miss the start in the Golden Slipper and expect to win. She got away with it on the weekend because she was beating nothing, and if you actually did the form and reviewed the meeting, you will see that the lane she sprinted on was the best place to be for the meeting. That, and she had no opposition. I wasn't wrong...because I did say she would put them away, and she did. It'll be a different kettle of fish come the Reisling and then the Slipper.
Pony Soprano
Guest
well you basically did, whats the point on writing an article about SWR that makes reference to speed horses coming undone if you weren't making a point that you think that was the only weapon she had in her arsenal 'speed'! you go again later to make reference to her speed "But speed doesn’t necessarily mean you have the Slipper" so how were you not implying that you think she is a one dimensional filly? just face it, you were wrong adam - and she showed yesterday, that she is so much more than just a speed horse.
Pony Soprano
Guest
i took the $10's on offer weeks ago!
Pony Soprano
Guest
Adam Page
Roar Guru
Didn't say she was one dimensional? I'm still happy to take her on. As I said, she would be too good for those yesterday no matter what the scenario because she wasn't against much, it will be a different pain barrier come Slipper Day, especially if she misses the start. If you want to take $3 for her, be my guest
Pony Soprano
Guest
hows the one dimensional speedy filly, who just runs to the front, will puncture and not even run out a strong 1200 look now adam? will the golden slipper fit, the answer is simply YES! She simply won't be beat! She made khan look third rate, he couldn't beat her in the slipper if he started now! where are you going to look for a better proposition now Adam?
David W
Guest
Some of the sectionals she has run would be amazing for a mature horse but are unbelievable for a 2 year old. It seems quite thin to say just because a horse can run an unbelievably fast 600m split then it is a risk at 1,200m. The only horse I've seen in the past decade run 600m sectionals as fast is Black Caviar and she was doing it as a mature horse. Sure there have been many "speedy squibs" over the years that have been tested and found wanting over 1,200m. Few if any have been as fast as She Will Reign. My only concern with a horse like She Will Reign would be an injury early in a career. I've seen it happen so many times. Amelia's Dream is one that comes to mind. She could have been anything!
TonyR
Guest
Graham I m it's you 100% on the SWR matter. She is the real deal sprinter and 1200 will not bother her in any shape or form. As for tomorrow it's just a matter of how far does she win by? Cheers Roar keep up the good work, great stuff!
Graham Bruton
Guest
Said I would never disagree with you again after your Global Glamour v's Winning Rupert prediction. You nailed it, even if Rupert had a condition that ended his career I don't think it made any difference to the result. I am SWR's biggest fan bar none and think she will eat the 1200 mtrs because of her effortless action. To me she has the lot and because my ticket says $9.50 I have to believe I am correct in assessing her. She will start $3.80 on race day after her victory tomorrow. So in this instance ...lets just say we are on a different thought pattern ....lets just hope I can make it 1-1 on Slipper day.