The Houston Rockets are the Warriors' biggest threat

By Justin Ahrns / Roar Guru

The Golden State Warriors are coming off a season where they posted the best record in NBA history at 73-9, but fell tantalisingly short in the NBA Finals.

So what do they do? Sign four-time scoring champion and NBA MVP Kevin Durant to accompany their big three of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, that’s what.

One could be excused for thinking that this would make them unbeatable. As much as teams may be able to keep up with them in the regular season – they are currently 47-9 – the playoffs are a different animal.

Sustaining good play on both ends of the floor against them is difficult, but there is a common trend for teams that have had success against them this season.

The three ball.

In their most recent loss to the Denver Nuggets, Denver tied an NBA record with 23 made three-pointers. In their loss to Houston earlier in the season, the Rockets capitalised from deep, a common trend for a Mike D’Antoni led system. Memphis made thirteen threes to defeat them earlier in January, and also beat the Warriors in December – becoming the only team to defeat Golden State twice this season.

So aside from the odd game here or there where the Warriors just play terribly, the best way to beat them is by excellence from three.

And there is only one team that is capable of doing that consistently over a seven match series – Houston.

The Rockets, led by MVP candidate James Harden, have a team of three-point specialists and defensive players, allowing them to compete on both ends of the court. Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon can shoot at will, and Harden’s ability to break down the defence allows them to get open shots.

At the centre position, Clint Capela, Montrezl Harrell and Nene are all viable players on both ends of the court, while Capela and Harrell are great in pick and roll situations.

The improvement of Sam Dekker off the bench has allowed them to play an up-tempo style with both units, putting constant pressure on the opposing team.

The thing that separates Houston from the likes of Denver, Memphis and Utah is not only their dominant shooting, but the genuine greatness of James Harden.

Harden is nearly averaging a triple-double while leading the league in assists and being third in points per game. He has hit many clutch shots in tight games, and his leadership has elevated to a new level this season.

To beat the Warriors, you have to beat them at their own game. Playing a half-court style may upset them once in a while, but not in a seven game series. Relying on one player to dominate will look good at times, but ultimately fall flat. See, Russell Westbrook and DeMarcus Cousins.

Putting pressure on their defence for 48 minutes leads to offensive mistakes from the Warriors. As the Rockets found, their offense becomes stagnant late in close games and in overtime, and missed shots leads to easy chances on offense for the opposing team.

In a seven game series between Houston and Golden State, the Warriors would be comfortable favourites. That said, the Rockets have a bigger chance than anyone of causing an upset.

Just don’t tell the Spurs I said that.

The Crowd Says:

2017-02-27T22:15:35+00:00

express34texas

Guest


You have context, I have context, everyone has context. You were complaining about 'old school guys.' There's different ways of looking at things and rarely is one way absolutely correct. GS is outrebounding their opps. This is a fact. While there's more to it than that, and you're overblowing how bad you think they are regarding rebounding. I guess we'll just disagree how good/bad they are as a rebouding team. CLE in 2015 Finals demonstrated how effective they good be if they pounded the glass, and this was without Irving/Love, and limited Mozgov's minutes as the series continued. Other teams have done the same. If you can pound the glass, it's part of the blueprint to b able to beat GS, especially when Green is their center and/or KD is PF. They're both good rebounders, but that's not their normal positions, and their undersized when GS goes small. A great rebounding team can take advantage of this. Whether it's enough to win the series is another matter, but CLE did last year, and they could've in 2015 if they stayed big.

2017-02-24T01:57:55+00:00

Mushi

Guest


If the opposite extreme is to actually look at the context then guilty as charged and hope to remain there. I also did consider if GS care, that was pretty self-evident in the third paragraph: “But… as I’ve said elsewhere it only matter if you can get the missed shots to about equal. Which is the battle that seemingly they don’t lose that often and it’s hard to see how you make them lose it 4/7 times” I’ve said countless times it doesn’t really matter that they are bad rebounders. I actually don’t think a great rebounding team can exert much of an advantage unless they can do something material about the conversion rates of shots on at least one end of the floor. But they are a below average rebounding team.

2017-02-23T15:52:36+00:00

express34texas

Guest


Mushi, like I said before, you have a point and it's valid, but it's not the only thing to look at. While you complain about 'old school' guys, you seem to be going to opposite extreme, which isn't good. Also, we have to consider if GS thinks they need more rebounding out there, they will go to a more standard lineup, such as McGee/Green/KD/Thompson/Curry. That's a solid rebounding lineup, and a lineup that would dominate. GS can rebound, but yes, this is an area where a great rebounding team could exploit them.

2017-02-22T02:19:16+00:00

Mushi

Guest


I’ll give Justin’s some credit – he’s using team rebounds as well. Most box scores don’t report that anymore as it more of a basketball accounting factor that includes the change of possession after a buzzer beater, handling errors and off ball fouls

2017-02-22T02:16:19+00:00

Mushi

Guest


If 20 other teams are more likely to get possession when the board hits the rim after their opponents missing the shot it’s hard to say you’re above average at it. It’s just a fact that on a same end of the court basis they are below the league average at both ends of the floor. It’s actually something which always frustrates me with olds skool commentators “they killed them on the glass” when a team “wins” the rebounding battle. Um no they killed them at the point of release on the shot But… as I’ve said elsewhere it only matter if you can get the missed shots to about equal. Which is the battle that seemingly they don’t lose that often and it’s hard to see how you make them lose it 4/7 times

2017-02-22T00:09:19+00:00

Mushi

Guest


Found a source yet swampy or is the fake news media thwarting your efforts?

2017-02-21T20:05:16+00:00

express34texas

Guest


GS has McGee, West, Livingston, Clark, and Iggy. That's 5 dependable bench players. How many other benches like in that the league? I don't know of many. Plus, even though they're longer at this level, West/Iggy are former AS.

2017-02-21T20:01:51+00:00

express34texas

Guest


Mushi, you might have a slight point, but I don't completely buy it. You're correct about their rate, but there's more to it than that. Their #1, 3-5 players are all above average rebounders. Thompson is probably a slightly below average rebounder. Beating GS on the boards is definitely something to focus on to try to beat them, but it's not really a weakness for them.

2017-02-21T02:24:10+00:00

Sam Walker

Roar Guru


It is the Kardashian factor for Tristan that is why he sucks this year.

2017-02-20T19:44:56+00:00

Mushi

Guest


They could even go out and get Antione Walker for vetran leaderhsip off the bench!

2017-02-20T19:42:14+00:00

Mushi

Guest


I think you're being harsh on Durant/overstating the weakness. Becuase they generate more misses than opponents any "fair" rebounding edge is likely to be wiped out (as per express texas' comments). The only way to consitently take advantage of the rebounding edge is get the same number of misses each. I think it depends entirley on teh cattle you've got. I actually would prefer going the other way - put additional pressure on their offence. I've watched where for stretches a complete focus, high energy defence that forces additional passes. Now they'll still get looks and score but what I've seen in a few of their losses is that if you can get stops that quickly become buckets they will deviate from their patterns at both ends to stem the flow and the key guys step out of the system and create a crack for the win. But problem is you've got to somehow play an over commited defence agasint a team whose third best shooter won the three point contest. On the Javale McGee comment above I don't think GSW need an X factor. They've got 2 MVP's a Defensive MVP candidate and a guy that can score 50 points sharing the floor to me it feels like they're already playing with most of the alphabet.

2017-02-20T19:31:48+00:00

Mushi

Guest


Express I think it's a little misleading becuase their defence forces so many misses their stats get inflated. Their rebonding rate is bottom third at both ends of the floor

2017-02-20T19:20:05+00:00

Mushi

Guest


Well according to Baskebtall reference and ESPN it was 54-52. http://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400899436 http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201612010GSW.html Got a source for your 56-44?

2017-02-20T16:54:47+00:00

express34texas

Guest


GS is an above average rebounding team. They're outrebounding their opps by 60 so far, which is about +1/game. Green averages more rebounds/minute than KD. Pachulia would be at about 11-12rpg if he played around 36mpg. His production/minute would likely decrease if he played more though. McGee is similar. KD is probably only GS 4th best rebounder. Given how often they go smallish, their rebounding is fine. But, yes, an elite rebounding team could have a big advantage over them in this aspect of the game.

2017-02-20T07:50:15+00:00

steve

Guest


Dude have you seen the Cavs list? their whole game plan is outside shooting and shooting three pointers. The Cavs have assembled a team of outside shooters, they have a plethora of shooting guards, hell even LeBron has spent 12 months improving his three point shot percentage. Theyhave no point guard back up and outside of Tristan Thompson, they have zero rim protection. Thompson has been so hot and cold this season he isn't even the number one rebounder in Cleveland, he isn't even number two rebounder, and his points production is appalling for the over inflated contract he is on. Its inside the paint Cavs are weak.

2017-02-20T07:43:07+00:00

steve

Guest


I'm not sure you have watched Cleveland this year. They have no inside game at all. That's apparent when the three pointers aren't dropping.

AUTHOR

2017-02-20T06:34:46+00:00

Justin Ahrns

Roar Guru


That could be either the best thing ever or an utter disaster LOL

2017-02-20T06:15:18+00:00

KingCowboy

Guest


Here you go JA, get Rondo back and you can have a UK reunion team out there (I know they played at different time but still would be fun to watch)

AUTHOR

2017-02-20T06:10:08+00:00

Justin Ahrns

Roar Guru


Plus we don't know how they are going to play as a unit, and I haven't been convinced of Alvin Gentry as a head coach yet. Could be interesting for sure!

AUTHOR

2017-02-20T06:09:07+00:00

Justin Ahrns

Roar Guru


I'd expect them to sneak into eight, and would be a nightmare first round match up for GS most likely. That said, a starting lineup of Holiday - Moore - Hill - Davis - Cousins shouldn't hold too many fears as they don't have the depth they would like. Definitely capable of causing some headaches though

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