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Does the Blue Diamond barrier draw matter?

The 2017 Blue Diamond Stakes has a huge field (Image: Joe Castro/AAP)
Editor
21st February, 2017
9

The Group 1 Blue Diamond (1200m) field of 2017 had their barriers drawn yesterday, and if you’re from the David Hayes/Ben Hayes/Tom Dabernig stable, you might be wondering if you kicked a black cat.

Of six runners from the stable, only one drew a single-digit barrier, with their full draw reading 8, 12, 13, 15, 16. Ouch.

Not all is lost. In 2016, the two highly fancied runners in Extreme Choice and Flying Artie drew 13 and 17 respectively, and that pair gapped the field, running the quinella for the Mick Price stable. Both have been proven Group 1 performers since then.

The 2017 Blue Diamond field looks far more open, with many chances and perhaps nothing looks a clear cut Group 1 winner just yet. At the top of betting, Robert Smerdon’s runner Property, to be ridden by Joao Moreira, shortened to equal favouritism after drawing in Gate 3, along with the Hayes/Dabernig-trained Catchy, who drew Gate 13, which saw her quote drift.

So does the barrier draw really matter?

The 367m shute at Caulfield for the 1200m distance allows for an 850m straight run before a single bend ahead of the 320m final straight. The barrier guide to Caulfield from ‘The Sportsman’ back in 2015 (that I still have!) then stated “Barriers are of no importance” over that distance.

That means you’re in either one of two camps. If you’re keen on Catchy, your price just wound out for no good reason and the suckers are jumping off because of a myth.

If you’re not keen on her, you can now also cling to the barrier draw disadvantageous. Why else would four of 17 Blue Diamond winners since 2000 have jumped from Barrier 11 or wider?

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Realistically, it’s far more complicated than that. Craig Williams, who will be on board Catchy, gave some insightful comments to News Corp about the track and the prevailing conditions being far more important:

If we turn up on Saturday and we’ve got a side wind, all of a sudden barrier one is barrier 28. That’s racing.

It’s race seven, so we’ll be working out the track pattern, we’ll be working out Mother Nature. Going into last spring, Mother Nature affected I would say three or four lead-up races to the carnival.

It was amazing how races were run and won by Mother Nature with the sheer gusts of winds she had directed at different parts of the track…

Usually it (wind) affects the state of play here at Caulfield hugely because of the shape of the track and where the stands are.

Just another element to factor in to picking a winner.

Winx and the Chipping Norton
The Group 1 Chipping Norton (1600m) has Winx at just $1.10 to beat most of what she beat two weeks ago in the Apollo Stakes. Hartnell will be there to run second again, as discussed last week.

Given the 16-point handicap rating between them, the weight scale says the champion mare should be carrying 8kgs more. Even a handicap like that wouldn’t stop her, you’d think.

At weight-for-age she’ll carry two kilograms less than Hartnell, giving her a handy 10kg turnaround, and that’s just on the next best horse, let alone the rest running behind her in the Chipping Norton.

I only mention this for the breathtaking nature of how good she is!

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Miracle Mile
Saturday’s Miracle Mile at Menangle offers plenty, with big gun Lazarus lining up as the short favourite. It should be a lightning fast mile (over the true 1609m!) thanks to the draw, which sees plenty of speed on the outside.

Lazarus drew wide in 8, and will face Lennytheshark on his inside in Gate 6, with Hunter Cup winner Bling It On in 2 (barring two scratchings, in which case he’ll start in 3), and Inter Dominion winner Smolda drawing the gun barrier in 1.

The brilliant Hectorjayjay drew widest in Gate 10, again drawing a poor barrier for a major Group 1.

David Aiken, trainer of both Lennytheshark and Hectorjayajy said Lenny would be his best hope after the latter drew wide. Lennytheshark won the Group 1 Canadian Club Sprint over the mile distance to book his spot in a chance for redemption, after being run down on the wire by Have Faith In Me in 2016 in a record 1:47.5.

Have Faith In Me hasn’t been the same horse since that win, and will miss the Miracle Mile this year.

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