Couple of near misses last weekend, with Inside Agent just missing out on a first three spot and the bob of the head going against Lady Esprit, but on the flip side, Upstart Pride got up at $6.
Here’s hoping this Saturday improves so I will look at the key races at both Randwick and Caulfield, starting off at the Heath.
Race Five: Italktravel Futurity Stakes (1400m)
Looks a pretty straight forward Group 1 win again for Black Heart Bart. He did a mighty job to wear down Turn Me Loose and I think he can slide forwad here and sit closer.
If that eventuates, he should just be winning. Palentino is looking for further, but his two efforts this time in have been outstanding. Had this been 1600, I’d be with him. The next best is Tosen Stardom.
There are many unknowns, but one thing that is known is that he is high class. Respect any market push.
With Black Heart Bart, over Palentino, Tosen Stardom and Ecuador.
Race Six: Crown Lager Peter Young Stakes (1800m)
I think Humidor is one of the better bets on the program. Former kiwi who has been brilliant in two runs down under for the Weir camp, most notably last time out in the Carlyon Cup when chasing down stablemate Burning Front.
If he jumps cleanly, he’ll either lead or sit near Tom Melbourne, and I rate Humidor a much better horse than him.
Obvious is Jameka. CF Orr run was superb from the back, closing off with real purpose. This will clean out the cobwebs for the Australian Cup, but she is certainly good enough to win here. Real Love didn’t have much luck in the Carlyon Cup and I think from the wide gate she could possibly slide forward.
But I am all over Humidor here, to beat Jameka, Real Love and The United States.
Race Seven: Ladbrokes Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m)
Landed with Tulip. I think Craig Williams just rode the filly a bit too cute in the preview. On debut he gave her a good slap with the whip and she exploded but in the preview he just nursed her where I think she would have been better with him pushing the button earlier in the straight.
She was only beaten a lip but it was still a fine performance. I think she will love the rise to 1200m and the break between runs indicates to me they really know what they are doing with this filly. Have to give enormous respect to Catchy.
She won like a really good horse in the Prelude and she is built like a classy three year old colt. Deserved favourite. And I wouldn’t rule out Muraahib. Though he hasn’t beaten much in two runs, he has done it impressively and is drawn to press forward and avoid trouble.
I can certainly entertain him at a price.
Tulip for me though in the Blue Diamond. Next best is Catchy, followed by Muraahib and Cao Cao.
Race Eight: The Resimax Group Oakleigh Plate (1100m)
Extreme Choice has been trialling the house down, but $3.60 is poison odds. That, and the form around him in two Spring runs doesn’t read great. As a betting proposition, I am keen to take him on.
I’m with Fell Swoop, who should have won this race last year had it not been for awful luck in the straight. Bursting to win a Group 1 and he looks on target to do it here off the back of a sizzling trial win at Canberra where he ran cracking time under triple wraps. Hellbent is reaching his D-Day here.
This will tell us if he is a contender or a pretender. Should have won fresh, then was back in a slowly run Rubiton. Draws to get clear running and if he can produce that turn of foot we know he has, he’ll go close.
The horse at a silly price is Flamberge. $21 and better was offered for him all in earlier in the week, but has found his right price at around $11. He won this race last year and looks on target after going so close last week in the Lightning. Draws a lovely gate to sit off the hot pace and launch.
Going with Fell Swoop, ahead of Hellbent, Flamberge and Extreme Choice.
It’d be silly wasting time on the Chipping Norton at Randwick. Winx, Hartnell, Endless Drama. There is your Trifecta.
The race I am really looking forward to is the Surround Stakes (1400m), where we see a really high-class bunch of three-year-old fillies. I’m sticking solid with my girl Spright. There’s a lot to like about her Light Fingers where she really savaged the line, and it should be noted that Brown dropped the whip 100m out, so that may have cost her.
A price of $8 is good overs. Omei Sword is the big watch. Best filly in the race, but has had a few setbacks this campaign.
If she is anywhere near right, she probably blows them away. Just too many unknowns to have her on top. Sezanne was okay against the older horses fresh, but up in trip and back to her own age/sex should see sharp improvement from her.
Looking elsewhere, I think two horses to back with confidence are Villa Rosa in the Typhoon Tracy on Friday night and Bold Adventure at Doomben in the Class 3.
Villa Rosa was very impressive on debut at Mornington, then really should have bolted in last start at the Valley but just had no luck. Only needs better luck to knock them off.
Bold Adventure is a former Gai Waterhouse runner that promised a fair bit at Tulloch Lodge but didn’t deliver. Now with Toby Edmond and won like a future Stakes winner fresh at Ipswich. Take any price you can for him.
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