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In the final edition of my season preview series, I take a look at four sides whose struggles this year could well send their coaches packing.
St George Illawarra Dragons
Let’s start with the positives. The Dragons have assembled one of the better forward packs in the NRL. New signings Paul Vaughn and Cameron McInnes join the likes of Tyson Frizell, Jack de Belin, Russell Packer, Joel Thompson and Tariq Sims to create a nasty mountain of misery.
And don’t forget about Luciano Leilua. The 110kg man-child is a cookie-cutter copy of his older brother, and the Dragons will hope he can create similar levels of mayhem.
St George Illawarra also boasts enviable talent throughout their backline, headlined by Josh Dugan. The man with the blueprints to Long Bay Jail tattooed on his torso remains one of the premier ball runners in the competition, and his defence at both centre and fullback has been outstanding.
Euan Aitken and Nene McDonald are criminally underrated and will be consistently among the Dragons’ best. And while Jason Nightingale moves slower than continental drift, he is reliable under the high ball and is always willing to take the tough early carries out of his own end.
But (and this is a generous, Mark Tookey-sized but) the Dragons simply can’t score enough points. It’s been a problem for years but has become more pronounced of late.
In fact, in the two years under Paul McGregor, the Dragons have ranked 15th for points scored, amassing a paltry 435 (18 ppg) and 341 (14ppg) points in 2015 and 2016 respectively. To put this in perspective, Canberra scored 736 points last season alone.
The Dragons have tried to pinpoint the source of their attacking malaise, with more finger pointing than Saturday Night Fever.
Some blame the decline of Benji Marshall, others think Gareth Widdop is the problem, while many think McGregor is not the right man for the job. I tend to think there is a morsel of truth in each argument.
So with Ben Hunt another year away, and with the decision not to sign Todd Carney or even Chris Sandow, McGregor has placed his coaching future in the hands of Josh McCrone.
Yikes!
Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs
There’s just no pleasing some people. Des Hasler guided the Bulldogs to five consecutive finals appearances, including two grand final defeats, yet he finished last season under extreme pressure to keep his job.
With opinions divided over Hasler’s future, the Bulldogs’ board went to war. Their petty arguments played out in the media like parents arguing in the other room and resulted in Steve Mortimer taking his ball and going home.
Des was eventually spared the axe, but he enters 2017 knowing his job is on the line.
Without detracting from Hasler’s success at Belmore, he is the primary culprit for the stale state of the Bulldogs’ attack. Toward the back end of last season, Canterbury became harder to watch than Ben Affleck as Batman, but still slightly easier to watch than George Clooney as Batman.
The Bulldogs finished last season eighth in points scored, but their attacking style remains too heavily reliant on skilful forwards ball-playing at the line. This tactic was highly successful in 2012, but like all successful trends in the NRL, teams have figured out how to defend it.
While Canterbury’s forward pack remains one of the premier units in the NRL, Des routinely asks too much of his big men. They aren’t halfbacks trapped in a behemoth’s body. They are just behemoths, and Hasler needs to start treating them as such.
So how does Des fix his attack? He has to let go. Like a nervous father handing over the car keys to his teenage son, Des needs to cede control of his attack to Moses Mbye.
Mbye has the talent, application and desire to take his game to the next level, yet Hasler seems reticent to hand him the reins. But whether Des likes it or not, his coaching future is bound to the performance of Moses Mbye, so he may as well embrace it.
For what it’s worth, I think Mbye will elevate his game in 2017. The Dogs will sneak into the top eight and may even win a finals game. For most teams, this would be counted as a successful season. For Des Hasler, this could well get him fired.
Manly Sea Eagles
Manly were a massive disappointment last year. In Trent Barrett’s first season as coach, the veteran Sea Eagles squad looked their age, playing a tired brand of rugby league.
For a fan-base accustomed to success, missing the finals for a second consecutive season was painful. Not since a Young Liberal mistook a shiraz for a cabernet has the stench of failure hung so heavy over the Northern Beaches.
For the second straight season, the Sea Eagles purged their roster with all the finesse of a chemical peel. Barrett exfoliated nearly 1000 games of NRL experience, which could rise to over 1400 games if Brett Stewart and Steve Matai officially retire.
While I can understand a coach wanting to stamp his identity on the roster, this might be too much too soon. In the space of 18 months, Barrett has completely eradicated any trace of the team culture that Des Hasler and Geoff Toovey fought so hard to create.
But I’m happy to give him the benefit of the doubt. The signing of Blake Green was an astute one, and will free up Daly Cherry-Evans to play his natural game. Curtis Sironen may prove to be a steal, provided he can stay on the park.
And the pickup of Roosters discard Jackson Hastings compensates for the atrocious signing of Akuila Uate. Han Solo was still alive the last time the flying Fijian produced even a decent performance.
Some may feel the inclusion of Barrett on this list is premature. How can you judge a coach after only a single season in charge? To a large extent I agree. But the reality is that Manly are a club that demand success and are intolerant of failure.
Barrett inherited a team in transition, but the Sea Eagles now have a top eight-quality roster. In the Trbojevic boys, Dylan Walker, Martin Taupau and Daly Cherry-Evans, they have a strong nucleus of marquee players.
This is a team built to win now. Their key players are in or entering the prime of their career, meaning Manly’s premiership window is open. If Trent Barrett can’t win with this squad, the Sea Eagles need to find someone who can.
Wests Tigers
I’m really struggling to get a read on this team. Entering year three of the Jason Taylor era, just who exactly are the Wests Tigers?
Are they the side who routinely scored 30 points per game in 2016 and knocked off the Panthers, Cowboys and Broncos? Or are they the team who handed an abysmal Newcastle side their only win of the season? I really have no idea.
What I do know is that there were plenty of positives to take from last season. James Tedesco established himself as the premier fullback in the competition, and new captain Aaron Woods took to leadership like a hipster to deconstructed coffee. Even Kevin Naiqama’s flat top improved in both height and volume.
But the most promising sign was the maturity and development of Mitchell Moses. Over the first 15 rounds of the season, Moses was stuck at the kids’ table while Robbie Farah directed the team around the park. During this period, Mitch logged six try assists, six line breaks and ran the ball around 3.5 times per game.
However with Robbie sinking ciders on the sideline, Moses exploded down the stretch with 11 try assists, nine line breaks and over seven runs per game. And although the Tigers fell a Ryan James swinging arm short of making the finals, the form of Moses was a handy consolation.
Defensively, the Tigers were a mess. The side conceded a massive 108 tries last season and have done little to address this glaring weakness. The forward pack remains very light on size, experience and depth, which could hold them back as the season progresses.
The Tigers will again be fun to watch, but will miss the finals for the sixth consecutive season, leading to the inevitable question: Has Taylor has done enough to keep his job?
He hasn’t.
Their salary cap remains in worse shape than Russell Crowe between movies, and the club’s biggest names remain unsigned beyond this season. Taylor’s intensive course of chemotherapy did force a troublesome locker room cancer into remission, but at a cost of over $700k, was it really worth it?
This time next year, we’ll be talking about the prospects of the Tigers’ fourth coach in six seasons.